throwaw12 (u/throwaw12)

throwaw12 commented on The AI boom is causing shortages everywhere else washingtonpost.com/techno... · Posted by u/1vuio0pswjnm7

thefz · 16 hours ago

> If AI is here to stay, as a thing that permanently increases productivity,

Thing is, I am still waiting to see where it increases productivity aside from some extremely small niches like speech to text and summarizing some small text very fast.

throwaw12 · 15 hours ago

Are you doctor or a farmer?

If you are a software engineer you are missing out a lot, literally a lot!

throwaw12 commented on The AI boom is causing shortages everywhere else washingtonpost.com/techno... · Posted by u/1vuio0pswjnm7

forinti · 20 hours ago

I know that all investments have risk, but this is one risky gamble.

US$700 billion could build a lot of infrastructure, housing, or manufacturing capacity.

throwaw12 · 15 hours ago

> US$700 billion could build a lot of infrastructure, housing, or manufacturing capacity.

I am now 100% convinced, that the US has power to build those things, but it will not, because it means lives of ordinary people will be elevated even more, this is not what brutal capitalism wants.

If it can make top 1% richer in 10 year span vs good for everyone in 20 years, it will go with former

throwaw12 commented on The AI boom is causing shortages everywhere else washingtonpost.com/techno... · Posted by u/1vuio0pswjnm7

rybosworld · 20 hours ago

Yeah I don't think this get's enough attention. It still requires a technical person to use these things effectively. Building coherent systems that solve a business problem is an iterative process. I have a hard time seeing how an LLM could climb that mountain on it's own.

I don't think there's a way to solve the issue of: one-shotted apps will increasingly look more convincing, in the same way that the image generation looks more convincing. But when you peel back the curtain, that output isn't quite correct enough to deploy to production. You could try brute-force vibe iterating until it's exactly what you wanted, but that rarely works for anything that isn't a CRUD app.

Ask any of the image generators to build you a sprite sheet for a 2d character with multiple animation frames. I have never gotten one to do this successfully in one prompt. Sometimes the background will be the checkerboard png transparency layer. Except, the checkers aren't all one color (#000000, #ffffff), instead it's a million variations of off-white and off-black. The legs in walking frames are almost never correct, etc.

And even if they get close - as soon as you try to iterate on the first output, you enter a game of whack-a-mole. Okay we fixed the background but now the legs don't look right, let's fix those. Okay great legs are fixed but now the faces are different in every frame let's fix those. Oh no fixing the faces broke the legs again, Etc.

We are in a weird place where companies are shedding the engineers that know how to use these things. And some of those engineers will become solo-devs. As a solo-dev, funds won't be infinite. So it doesn't seem likely that they can jack up the prices on the consumer plans. But if companies keep firing developers, then who will actually steer the agents on the enterprise plans?

throwaw12 · 15 hours ago

> But when you peel back the curtain, that output isn't quite correct enough to deploy to production

What if, we change current production environments to fit that blackbox and make it run somehow with 99% availability and good security?

throwaw12 commented on The AI boom is causing shortages everywhere else washingtonpost.com/techno... · Posted by u/1vuio0pswjnm7

Archelaos · 19 hours ago

In 2024, global GDP was $111 trillion.[1] Investing 1 or 2 % of that to improve global productivity via AI does not seem exaggerated to me.

[1] https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD

throwaw12 · 15 hours ago

I will put it differently,

Investing 1 or 2% of global GDP to increase wealth gap 50% more and make top 1% unbelievable rich while everyone else looking for jobs or getting 50 year mortgage, seem very bad idea to me.

throwaw12 commented on The AI boom is causing shortages everywhere else washingtonpost.com/techno... · Posted by u/1vuio0pswjnm7

mystraline · 15 hours ago

The current LLMs are not constantly learning. They're static models that require megatons of coal to retrain.

Now if the LLMs could modify their own nets, and improve themselves, then that would be immensely valuable for the world.

But as of now, its a billionaires wet dream to threaten all workers as a way to replace labor.

throwaw12 · 15 hours ago

> if the LLMs could modify their own nets ... then that would be immensely valuable for the world.

Not sure :)

I expect different things, don't think Wall Street allows good things to happen to ordinary people

throwaw12 commented on Discuss – Do AI agents deserve all the hype they are getting? · Posted by u/MicroWagie

throwaw12 · 17 hours ago

You are already using agents - Claude Code and cursor are agents.

Agent = loop_until( reasoning + tool-calls + mutate-state + verify ) -> expected_result

Claude Code, Codex are all examples of cool agentic projects. They are going even further by taking over the world of Excel

throwaw12 commented on Coding agents have replaced every framework I used blog.alaindichiappari.dev... · Posted by u/alainrk

kmac_ · 18 hours ago

Current models won't write anything new, they are "just" great at matching, qualifying, and copying patterns. They bring a lot of value right now, but there is no creativity.

throwaw12 · 18 hours ago

95% of the industry wasn't creating creative value, it was repetitive.

* auth + RBAC, known problem, just needs integration

* 3rd party integration, they have API, known problem, just needs integration

* make webpage responsive, millions of CSS lines

* even video gaming, most engines are already written, just add your character and call couple of APIs to move them in the 3D space

throwaw12 commented on Coding agents have replaced every framework I used blog.alaindichiappari.dev... · Posted by u/alainrk

simonw · 18 hours ago

Have you really never found writing code painful?

CI is failing. It passed yesterday. Is there a flaky API being called somewhere? Did a recent commit introduce a breaking change? Maybe one of my third-party dependencies shipped a breaking change?

I was going to work on new code, but now I have to spend between 5 minutes and an hour+ - impossible to predict - solving this new frustration that just cropped up.

I love building things and solving new problems. I'd rather not have that time stolen from me by tedious issues like this... especially now I can outsource the CI debugging to an agent.

These days if something flakes out in CI I point Claude Code at it and 90% of the time I have the solution a couple of minutes later.

throwaw12 · 18 hours ago

> I point Claude Code at it and 90% of the time I have the solution a couple of minutes later.

Same experience, I don't know why people keep saying code was easy part, sure, only when you are writing a boilerplate which is easy and expectations are clear.

I agree code is easier than some other parts, but not the easiest, industry employed millions of us, to write that easy thing.

When working on large codebases or building something in the flow, I just don't want to read all the OAuth2 scopes Google requires me to obtain, my experience was never: "now I will integrate Gmail, let me do gmail.FetchEmails(), cool it works, on to the next thing"

throwaw12 commented on Coding agents have replaced every framework I used blog.alaindichiappari.dev... · Posted by u/alainrk

capyba · 19 hours ago

Your last sentence describes my thoughts exactly. I try to incorporate Claude into my workflow, just to see what it can do, and the best I’ve ended up with is - if I had written it completely by myself from the start, I would have finished the project in the same amount of time but I’d understand the details far better.

Even just some AI-assisted development in the trickier parts of my code bases completely robs me of understanding. And those are the parts that need my understanding the most!

throwaw12 · 18 hours ago

skill issue.

sorry for being blunt, but if you have tried once, twice and came to this conclusion, it is definitely a skill issue, I never got comfortable by writing 3 lines of Java, Python or Go or any other language, it took me hundreds of hours spent doing non-sense, failing miserably and finding out that I was building things which already exists in std lib.

throwaw12 commented on Claude Code Is the Inflection Point newsletter.semianalysis.c... · Posted by u/throwaw12

simianwords · 19 hours ago

I couldn’t read the full article but it raises a good point about using AI for dashboards and creating charts. Lots of people work in the jobs in which the requirement is to literallly pull the data and create nice looking dashboards.

This job is clearly going to be modified in some way.

We finally have a legitimate way to query data using natural language and create dashboards. I don’t know what the point of learning sql is now - at least for olap users.

throwaw12 · 19 hours ago

Its funny though, if we unpack it more and add little more exaggeration to see where future might be going:

* we don't need to know how to write the code, because AI can write code.

* we don't need dashboards, because AI can connect to db directly and generate dashboards on-demand

* we don't need utility SaaS, like managing your Google Ads, Meta Ads. Because AI can connect to them directly and manage your ads

* we don't need many other services, because AI can do them

Only moat seems to be in the platforms with large user base and inertia or things run on top of them: Gmail, Google Ads, Reddit, Instagram, MS Office, AWS/Azure/GCP and etc,.