squidbeak (u/squidbeak)

squidbeak commented on Dario Amodei – "We are near the end of the exponential" [video] dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amod... · Posted by u/danielmorozoff

GorbachevyChase · 9 hours ago

Does anyone know who Dwarkesh’s patron is that boosted him in podcast world? He isn’t otherwise highly distinguished and admitted does his show prep with AI which sometimes shows in his questions. I feel like there are a very large number of tech podcasts, but there’s some marketing effect around this guy that I just don’t understand.

squidbeak · 8 hours ago

Similar wonderings occurred to me at that point in the vid where he struggled to understanding Amodei's explanation of the economics, which was pretty straightforward. Unless he was just being deliberately arsey.

squidbeak commented on Humans peak in midlife: A combined cognitive and personality trait perspective sciencedirect.com/science... · Posted by u/Brajeshwar

squidbeak · 4 days ago

I'm a layman to this jargon, but are 'crystallized intelligence' and 'emotional intelligence' in any actual sense 'intelligence'? I can't see how these terms mean anything other than judgement, experience, maturity etc, which are already good enough labels for this stuff. Can anyone explain what these flashier new terms offer over them?

squidbeak commented on Coding agents have replaced every framework I used blog.alaindichiappari.dev... · Posted by u/alainrk

imiric · 6 days ago

Pray tell, how has the world benefited from a flood of all these superhuman developers? Where is the groundbreaking software that is making our lives better?

squidbeak · 5 days ago

Is this reply meant to me? Because what I wrote was:

> But at this stage, what we're seeing is just the opposite: significant progress in model development last year, patterns for use being explored by almost every development team without widespread calamity and the first well-functioning automated workflows appearing for replacing entire teams.

squidbeak commented on Coding agents have replaced every framework I used blog.alaindichiappari.dev... · Posted by u/alainrk

straydusk · 6 days ago

Have you considered that betting against the models and ecosystem improving might be a bad bet, and you might be the one who is in for a rude awakening?

squidbeak · 6 days ago

I agree. We've been assured by these skeptics that models are stochastic parrots, that progress in developing them was stalling, and that skills parity with senior developers was impossible - as well as having to listen to a type of self-indulgent daydreaming relish about the eventual catastrophes companies adopting them would face. And perhaps eventually these skeptics will turn out to be right. Who knows at this stage. But at this stage, what we're seeing is just the opposite: significant progress in model development last year, patterns for use being explored by almost every development team without widespread calamity and the first well-functioning automated workflows appearing for replacing entire teams. At this stage, I'd bet on the skeptics being the camp to eventually be forced to make the hard adjustments.

squidbeak commented on Outsourcing thinking erikjohannes.no/posts/202... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti

camgunz · 13 days ago

This list of things not to use AI for is so quaint. There's a story on the front page right now from The Atlantic: "Film students who can no longer sit through films". But why? Aren't they using social media, YouTube, Netflix, etc responsibly? Surely they know the risks, and surely people will be just as responsible with AI, even given the enormous economic and professional pressures to be irresponsible.

squidbeak · 13 days ago

Perhaps the films were weren't worth sitting through?

squidbeak commented on How many chess games are possible? win-vector.com/2026/01/27... · Posted by u/jmount

recursivecaveat · 17 days ago

Apparently ~75% of the positions in the lichess database (as of 6 years ago) have only been seen once ever. Average game length is 30-40 moves, so for the completely average player it would be like 10+ moves I suppose. The stronger the players the longer it will take: I found some comments suggesting 20+ for high level players.

squidbeak · 17 days ago

It depends totally on the opening. You can be out of book and database far quicker than that for offbeat stuff, or in book far longer for popular openings.

Another distinction needs to be made between positions seen and positions played. Almost every viable position will have been seen in preparation well beyond 10 moves. But seeing them on the board is rarer.

squidbeak commented on A few random notes from Claude coding quite a bit last few weeks twitter.com/karpathy/stat... · Posted by u/bigwheels

einrealist · 17 days ago

> It's so interesting to watch an agent relentlessly work at something. They never get tired, they never get demoralized, they just keep going and trying things where a person would have given up long ago to fight another day. It's a "feel the AGI" moment to watch it struggle with something for a long time just to come out victorious 30 minutes later.

Somewhere, there are GPUs/NPUs running hot. You send all the necessary data, including information that you would never otherwise share. And you most likely do not pay the actual costs. It might become cheaper or it might not, because reasoning is a sticking plaster on the accuracy problem. You and your business become dependent on this major gatekeeper. It may seem like a good trade-off today. However, the personal, professional, political and societal issues will become increasingly difficult to overlook.

squidbeak · 17 days ago

> you most likely do not pay the actual costs. It might become cheaper or it might not

Why would this be the first technology that doesn't become cheaper at scale over time?

squidbeak commented on Is It Time for a Nordic Nuke? warontherocks.com/2026/01... · Posted by u/ryan_j_naughton

derelicta · 18 days ago

Western warmongering piece. Congrats on the Americans for having managed to pit Europeans against their Russian counterparts and biggest energy partners.

squidbeak · 18 days ago

[edit, direwolf20 put it more succinctly]

squidbeak commented on Over 36,500 killed in Iran's deadliest massacre, documents reveal iranintl.com/en/202601255... · Posted by u/mhb

vogre · 18 days ago

Which also refer to unnamed sources and "U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency"(read CIA)

squidbeak · 18 days ago

Why lie about this when the first paragraph is explicit about its source?

> As many as 30,000 people could have been killed in the streets of Iran on Jan. 8 and 9 alone, two senior officials of the country’s Ministry of Health told TIME