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sobellian commented on NASA chief suggests SpaceX may be booted from moon mission   cnn.com/2025/10/20/scienc... · Posted by u/voxleone
vlovich123 · 2 months ago
> because pouring national wealth into gigantic single-use rockets was unsustainable

You mean what SpaceX does as a matter of course and proved you make it cheap just through scale and iteration?

sobellian · 2 months ago
SpaceX uses flight proven boosters. The rockets aren't quite as gigantic nor as single-shot as the Saturn V. Also, they launch satellites into LEO for commercial reasons. It's quite a different beast from lobbing LEMs at the moon where the money is essentially lit on fire.
sobellian commented on NASA chief suggests SpaceX may be booted from moon mission   cnn.com/2025/10/20/scienc... · Posted by u/voxleone
dotnet00 · 2 months ago
I don't think Shuttle's issue was that the material science wasn't there. The issue was the way the design was constrained, and the general aerospace culture at the time (that only began to change with "New Space").

Shuttle's heatshield would've been much less dangerous if it wasn't facing a giant ice and insulation covered external tank (like, if it was mounted on top of a booster), but the Air Force's demand for crossrange forced giant wings, which forced the lower mounting position.

They could've iterated on heat shield designs, particularly with attachment mechanisms, but every mission had to carry people, so you couldn't risk it, and anyway, the industry culture was already set in the "even the simplest things must cost large amounts of money and time" stage.

One of the key points that I feel a lot of people miss is that Starship is pretty much the first program actually doing the flight testing needed to understand the engineering requirements for an efficient fully reusable heatshield. They don't have much prior art to look at for tile spacing, mounting mechanisms, metal tiles or transpiration cooling. The fundamental materials haven't changed a lot, but we can see over test flights that SpaceX are figuring things out.

In the early days they used to lose tiles all the time, even after just pressure testing IIRC. Nowadays they may barely lose any tiles on static fire tests. Similarly, tile loss on reentry has decreased greatly, and we've gone from seeing plasma leaving the fins barely attached, to the latest test, where the fins were pretty much fully intact.

sobellian · 2 months ago
I'd say material science since the only non-ablative material we can use is too brittle compared to a normal fuselage. I really hope they succeed but it's a pretty fundamental problem to have unanswered this deep into the program development (and gating Artemis no less). Also hard to judge their progress without the data their heat shield team is getting, see https://x.com/mcrs987/status/1978183753114505496 for example. It's great that they can tolerate loss of vehicle & have better margins due to the steel fuselage but for Artemis and Mars they need to solve it or they'll be burning up hardware fast, literally.
sobellian commented on NASA chief suggests SpaceX may be booted from moon mission   cnn.com/2025/10/20/scienc... · Posted by u/voxleone
vlovich123 · 2 months ago
You mean the 1970s as in Raegan when the space program stalled and became irrelevant and became mostly a way to funnel money to districts for certain congresspeople?
sobellian · 2 months ago
The space program stalled because pouring national wealth into gigantic single-use rockets was unsustainable. They tried with Shuttle but the material science wasn't there yet (heck it might not be even now, it doesn't seem that they've really nailed down the heat shield on Starship yet).
sobellian commented on Do YC after you graduate: Early decision for students   ycombinator.com/early-dec... · Posted by u/snowmaker
mikert89 · 3 months ago
This is basically ensuring YC starts to get more absolute top graduates. Entrepreneurship is more and more seen as the default path for top people in the USA. All other career paths are for people that want to take the risk of ending up in a 50 year assembly line. This is probably good for society

If you want to get rich by 30, you basically have to start a startup or get into a top small hedge fund out of undergrad.

sobellian · 3 months ago
Having done this, and acknowledging the fuzzy definition of "rich" etc - going through YC after graduating is a great career move. You have to do everything yourself so you learn a lot. About business, about a specific industry, about programming, whatever. You make connections. But unless you walk an absolute golden path (hey it happens), > 90% chance you don't get rich. > 99.9% chance you won't get rich by 30.
sobellian commented on Ex-Waymo engineers launch Bedrock Robotics to automate construction   techcrunch.com/2025/07/16... · Posted by u/boulos
toomuchtodo · 5 months ago
Appreciate you highlighting the need for unions. Hopefully the skilled trades shortage persists indefinitely, otherwise they’d be treated just as you mentioned: disposable and interchangeable. The scarcity is the only thing protecting these folks at the moment.

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/rebuilding-construction-tr...

sobellian · 5 months ago
There is so much work for skilled tradesmen that they would rather see more automation so they can take more jobs. Even many unions, e.g. carpenters' unions, think this way.

I mean no large group is a monolith so I'm sure one can find opinions either way among tradesmen. But IMO the problem is so big that it's no longer revenue maximizing for anyone, even the workers. By some measures productivity has actually been declining for construction. If that was good for workers then we should just set them to digging a second Panama Canal with spoons.

sobellian commented on Gödel's theorem debunks the most important AI myth – Roger Penrose [video]   youtube.com/watch?v=biUfM... · Posted by u/Lockal
katabasis · 10 months ago
Many philosophical traditions which incorporate a meditation practice emphasize that your consciousness is distinct from the contents of your thoughts. Meditation (even practiced casually) can provide a direct experience of this.

When it comes to the various kinds of thought-processes that humans engage in (linguistic thinking, logic, math, etc) I agree that you can describe things in terms of functions that have definite inputs and outputs. So human thinking is probably computable, and I think that LLMs can be said to be ”think” in ways that are analogous to what we do.

But human consciousness produces an experience (the experience of being conscious) as opposed to some definite output. I do not think it is computable in the same way.

I don’t necessarily think that you need to subscribe to dualism or religious beliefs to explain consciousness - it seems entirely possible (maybe even likely) that what we experience as consciousness is some kind of illusory side-effect of biological processes as opposed to something autonomous and “real”.

But I do think it’s still important to maintain a distinction between “thinking” (computable, we do it, AIs do it as well) and “consciousness” (we experience it, probably many animals experience it also, but it’s orthogonal to the linguistic or logical reasoning processes that AIs are currently capable of).

At some point this vague experience of awareness may be all that differentiates us from the machines, so we shouldn’t dismiss it.

sobellian · 10 months ago
> It's very difficult to find some way of defining rather precisely something we can do that we can say a computer will never be able to do. There are some things that people make up that say that, "While it's doing it, will it feel good?" or, "While it's doing it, will it understand what it's doing?" or some other abstraction. I rather feel that these are things like, "While it's doing it, will it be able to scratch the lice out of it's hair?" No, it hasn't got any hair nor lice to scratch from it, okay?

> You've got to be careful when you say what the human does, if you add to the actual result of his effort some other things that you like, the appreciation of the aesthetic... then it gets harder and harder for the computer to do it because the human beings have a tendency to try to make sure that they can do something that no machine can do. Somehow it doesn't bother them anymore, it must have bothered them in earlier times, that machines are stronger physically than they are...

- Feynman

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipRvjS7q1DI

sobellian commented on "Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies" – Executive Order   whitehouse.gov/presidenti... · Posted by u/martialg
toolz · 10 months ago
Can we give this fear-mongering a rest? This is his second term, he didn't topple democracy in his first term and everyone made the same arguments back then.

If anything the democrats were the party to get rid of some of their democratic process. They didn't even vote on their parties candidate, and no, that doesn't scare me either.

Not to mention the democrats had far more private money spent all three times fighting Trump and yet he still won democratically twice and lost once democratically.

The system isn't great or even good, but it's still functioning.

sobellian · 10 months ago
He didn't topple the system but it wasn't for lack of trying. Pence had to refuse Trump's repeated requests to fix the election (a precedent that would have guaranteed single-party rule). You are relying now, as you were then, on other people in the system conducting themselves with integrity. If it were up to Trump, Biden would never have assumed office.
sobellian commented on Voters were right about the economy   politico.com/news/magazin... · Posted by u/cwwc
lapcat · 10 months ago
The article isn't just about one statistic, unemployment. It's about multiple statistics, for example inflation too.
sobellian · 10 months ago
Okay but we were talking about the unemployment statistic in this thread. Does it add any information? It likely does not.
sobellian commented on Voters were right about the economy   politico.com/news/magazin... · Posted by u/cwwc
lapcat · 10 months ago
I feel like you both may be missing the point. The article isn't just about the present. It takes a very long view:

> The problem isn’t that some Americans didn’t come out ahead after four years of Bidenomics. Some did. It’s that, for the most part, those living in more modest circumstances have endured at least 20 years of setbacks

> The bottom line is that, for 20 years or more, including the months prior to the election, voter perception was more reflective of reality than the incumbent statistics.

In other words, the official statistics have been misleading for a very long time, misleading in the sense of not showing the true hardships of the economy on the voters.

"Year X is better/worse than Year Y" is not really the point.

sobellian · 10 months ago
The proposed measure is highly correlated with U-3, so as time-series they should basically tell the same story. If the assertion is "U-3 doesn't predict this phenomenon but this other measure does" it's likely to be wrong since the signals are roughly equal to a constant factor. For the entire data range depicted in the paper this property holds. Is it possible that back in $GOOD_OLD_DAYS this isn't true? Well I'd like to see the data but I don't have time to chase it down and none has been offered to support that claim.
sobellian commented on Voters were right about the economy   politico.com/news/magazin... · Posted by u/cwwc
bryanlarsen · 10 months ago
It's likely the problems are all in the politico framing of it.

U7 seems useful. U7 being 24% feels right-ish. That's on Ludwig.

Implying that 24% is worse than normal when it's likely one of the best values we've had in decades? That's on Politico.

sobellian · 10 months ago
AFAICT the article was written by the guy that germinated the concept in the first place. You can see the paper at https://cdn.prod.website-files.com/63ba0d84fe573c7513595d6e/...

tl;dr It is very highly correlated to U-3. The paper doesn't include 2024 in the data series but the figure the article cites, 23.7%, is very near all-time best. That's pretty deceptive framing IMO.

u/sobellian

KarmaCake day868February 23, 2014View Original