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ramblingrain commented on Meta-analysis of 2.2M people: Loneliness increases mortality risk by 32%   lightcapai.medium.com/the... · Posted by u/WASDAai
paraknight · 4 months ago
I haven't dug into all the sources, but I think there's a potential confounder here, or maybe even reverse causality. The author seems to assume causation when the studies only indicate correlation. E.g. the first link says "chronic loneliness increases mortality risk" but the actual source says "actual and perceived social isolation are both associated with increased risk for early mortality".

So for example, it's possible that if you already have chronic illness, a disability, or any other kind of health issues, you're more likely to have higher social isolation and therefore be more lonely, in addition to having a higher mortality risk. There's an outside variable (your health) that is correlated with both (loneliness and mortality), but that doesn't necessarily mean that loneliness causes mortality. If this were the case, we could defend claims like "autism increases mortality", because we already know that autism increases social isolation.

ramblingrain · 4 months ago
The first source I clicked into was a meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

What you say sounds true about chronic illness and isolation. These researchers are looking at research done using actual interventions and real results.

What should they do to analyze this more than RCTs and then meta-analysis of RCTs?

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s... Tackling social disconnection: an umbrella review of RCT-based interventions targeting social isolation and loneliness

ramblingrain commented on Laplacian Mesh Smoothing by Throwing Vertices   nosferalatu.com/./Laplaci... · Posted by u/nosferalatu123
ramblingrain · a year ago
This reminds me of bouncing on a trampoline. I'm a human not a computer
ramblingrain commented on Laplacian Mesh Smoothing by Throwing Vertices   nosferalatu.com/./Laplaci... · Posted by u/nosferalatu123
nkrisc · a year ago
It’s a shorter name for that.
ramblingrain · a year ago
It sounds like it doesn't have any guarantees regarding topology. Or maybe it's so simple or does?

Let's be positive my friends

ramblingrain commented on If AI seems smarter, it's thanks to smarter human trainers   reuters.com/technology/ar... · Posted by u/getwiththeprog
godelski · a year ago

  > Many of us worked in fields where good research tends to be more nuanced and open to interpretation
I've had a hard time getting people to understand this. It's always felt odd tbh. It's what's meant by "truth doesn't exist". Because it doesn't exist with infinite precision, though they are plenty of times where there's good answers. In our modern world I think one of the big challenges is that we've advanced enough that low order approximations are no longer good enough. It should make sense, as we get better we need more complex models. We need to account for more.

In many optimization problems there are no global solutions. This isn't because we lack good enough models, it's just how things are. And the environment is constantly changing, the targets moving. So the complexity will always exist. There's beauty in that, because what fun is a game when you beat it? With a universe like this, there's always a new level ahead of us.

ramblingrain · a year ago

  > Many of us worked in fields where good research tends to be more nuanced and open to interpretation
>> I've had a hard time getting people to understand this.

Why, can't you just tell them "it's not a science, it's more like performance art."

ramblingrain commented on Uber charges more if you have credits in your account   viewfromthewing.com/uber-... · Posted by u/cwwc
jlund-molfese · a year ago
This is probably the strongest response in this thread and I agree. It's implausible that Uber would directly implement something like "if customer has credits, charge them 10% more" or "if battery < 5%, increase price by 50%". But non-personalized pricing that's profitable yet exploitative of customers in a way that Uber can plausibly deny or allows for collusion without direct agreements? Completely realistic and even likely imo.

I'd love to see ProPublic or other investigative journalists do some research here. Especially on the driver side, because they seem to have even less leverage than average riders.

ramblingrain · a year ago
After I gave my 5,000th ride on Uber I had a beer. I thought. I pondered. I devised the iniquity experiment.

(1) N drivers authorized on the Rideshare platform are engaged.

(2) these N drivers drive simultaneously and in a similar geographic preference- as if they live in the same neighborhood, but also are optimizing as drivers do. And yet drawn home.

(3) pricing, earnings, etc. are recorded per driver and compared across drivers on the Rideshare platform(s).

Now we engage the experimental component. With N drivers we can have N/2 drivers engage in behavior A or behavior B. Then, when the Rideshare platform denies they do this or that depending on that or this, there is good evidence that is not the case. Statistical evidence. Tallyho, bandits!

ramblingrain commented on Uber charges more if you have credits in your account   viewfromthewing.com/uber-... · Posted by u/cwwc
AStonesThrow · a year ago
Pricing algorithms have always been private!! Yet "free markets" seemed to work out anyway.

Go to an auction house, or a swap meet. Haggle for prices, against other buyers, negotiate with sellers. Approach any salesman in a business with unpublished prices (B2B especially.) Try to purchase a home or a vehicle, middleman or not.

Think about it, and you'll discover that pricing algorithms have been subject to human whim since before the invention of money.

The amazing innovation of markets was indeed, up-front price tags, fairness to all buyers, yet any underlying algorithm was still private and proprietary, so the consumer at a Safeway doesn't really have any idea what his carton of milk costs or why he's paying $7 for it.

ramblingrain · a year ago
The problem is price fixing, right? Milk, really?
ramblingrain commented on Uber charges more if you have credits in your account   viewfromthewing.com/uber-... · Posted by u/cwwc
Waterluvian · a year ago
Given enough time Uber will just look like an another taxi service I guess.
ramblingrain · a year ago
Yes, except the driver will never have his child in a car seat in the front apologetically. And the passenger will pay in excess, but to the stock market and not the driver.
ramblingrain commented on Uber charges more if you have credits in your account   viewfromthewing.com/uber-... · Posted by u/cwwc
admax88qqq · a year ago
Were there tolls on your trip?
ramblingrain · a year ago
Driver pay gets adjusted this way too. Lyft and Uber. No tolls, traffic jams (at least) can cause this.
ramblingrain commented on US Forest Service proposes protections for old-growth trees, without logging ban   opb.org/article/2024/06/2... · Posted by u/geox
poorman · 2 years ago
People often forget the original purpose of these state forests was to harvest the timber and pay the teacher salaries as part of the Oregon Common School Fund... As the great great grandson of Francis Elliott (Oregon's first state forester), I have been reminded of this by my family many times over the years. I'm unsure of it's purpose today, but I suspect the teachers wouldn't mind the extra pay.
ramblingrain · 2 years ago
Timber is still the original and main purpoes of state forests in Oregon and Washington.

The article is discussing federal forests. The timberlands in Oregon are owned by private, federal and state entities.

Forests managed for for timber by the state are protected differently, like, first to get sprinkler lines in a wildfire. They are a crop which is invested in and harvested. Federal forests are easier to log after a burn anyway, and you can log outside the burn with that cover. The United States Forest Service (USFS) is actually, basically, a road building and logging company, but owls and so on really got in the way for a couple decades. We're figuring out how to keep logging. We're capitalists.

The only state forests with old growth are going to be the "experimental" state forests in the Cascades and the Olympic and Coast ranges. Otherwise we woulda logged 'em. I mean there are old growth pine trees and juniper in Oregon and Washington east of the Cascades, a few, but those aren't timberlands.

https://oregonforests.org/forest-ownership-map

ramblingrain commented on AI behavior guardrails should be public   twitter.com/ID_AA_Carmack... · Posted by u/sotasota
noworriesnate · 2 years ago
Good point. People of European descent have more diversity in hair color, hair texture and eye color than any other race. That’s because a lot of those traits are recessive and are only expressed in isolated gene pools (European peoples are an isolated gene pool in this sense).
ramblingrain · 2 years ago
Isn't this like the exact opposite of the conclusions of the HapMap project?

u/ramblingrain

KarmaCake day54July 2, 2014View Original