- The huge sums of wealth which tens of millions of ordinary people feel they need to accumulate, to pay for their (grand)?children's college education, unexpected medical bills, many decades of retirement and elder care, etc. Compare that to (say) the 1950's.
- The huge structural and social barriers to creating small businesses in most economic sectors, compared to (say) 60 years ago. Back then, how many of the businesses in an average town were (at most) small-ish, family-owned companies?
- How d*mn much "money" is sloshing around the financial system these days, with the "at any sign of crisis, pour in more $trillions" monetary policies of the Fed.
I hear you, but uncle Karl names and shames the growth-obsession in Das Kapital which predated Reagan by over 100 years. It's a part of the system that many people have incentive to deny, hide, or minimize, but endless growth seems to be a requirement of "the system of organizing our resources that prioritizes turning capital into more capital" aka capital-ism.
in the space of cve or malware detection, the user wants a safe/secure computing experience with minimal overhead, but the antivirus / cve-scan vendor wants to claim that they're _keeping_ the you safe. so they're motivated to tell you all about the things they scanned and possible attacks / vectors they found. You probably would've been safe responding to only a subset of those alerts, but they have no incentive to minimize the things they show you, because if they ever missed one you would change vendors.
in the space of cryptography, the user wants secure communications that are unbreakable but with minimum hassle and overhead, but the advisory boards etc. are incentivized to act like they have important advice to give. So from the user perspective maybe it makes sense to use 2048 bit encryption for a few more decades, but from the "talking head" authority figure perspective, they can't afford to ever be wrong and it's good if they have something new to recommend every so often, so the easiest for them to do is to keep upping the number of bits used to encrypt, even if there's 99.99% odds that a smaller/shorter/simpler encryption would've been equally as secure.
I kind of wonder why anyone thought iostreams would be a good idea to begin with. I don't think anyone but C++ ever created a comparable interface.
IDK, it'll probably make more sense in another 15 years as we clear away the cruft of all the things that tried to bring "cloud native" paradigms into a space where they didn't really fit...
Anything recent (≥2016) seems to say 3072 for RSA.
Another thing that's missing is the lifetime expectancy, e.g. "for how many years does something encrypted in 2030 need to be unbreakable?"
The author doesn't seem to be a big authority, so has little to lose by staking their reputation on "you don't need it to be that good," whereas by the very nature of their authority, anyone in the resource you link is going to be motivated to never be wrong under any circumstances. So if someone with some reputation/authority/power to lose think there's a 0.001% chance that some new incremental improvements will allow for fast-enough breaking of 2048 bit encryption created in 2030 within a window where that would be unacceptable, then they're motivated to guess high. The authority in this case doesn't directly bear the costs of too high of a guess, whereas it could be very bad for, i dunno, some country's government, and by extension the org or people that made that country's standards recommendations, if some classified information became public 15 or 50 years earlier than intended just because it could be decrypted.
To me it's an interesting touchstone work showing/reminding that the "invisibly neutral" tone we've collectively adopted is still an editorial choice and cultural moment.
I'm sure writing and communication styles will drift back and forth over the next few decades. Sometime soon (if not already) another generation of younger developers will coalesce around some document that feels authentically counter-cultural, like their own late-night jokes and dreams have been given just enough coherence to hook them in, and then I probably still won't get it because I'll be out of touch.... :)
Most of us that would've been into _why's stuff now have more traditional-looking jobs and responsibilities. But I'm so grateful for what he showed us then, and miss the more genuinely human, broken and vulnerable community he represented.
I still strongly prefer the worldview, circumstances, mindset, etc. where that kind of content is written, read, and celebrated over today's focus on Influence and Professionalism.
Reduce, reuse and recycle was the original term. Everyone over indexed on recycling and completely abandoned the first two. (Instead we went the other way and started individually wrapping bananas in plastic)