Maybe there is an equilibrium in there, but I don’t see it.
I'm not even completely anti-tariff. I just think the way we're going about doing these tariffs is pretty much the opposite way anyone who was trying to bring manufacturing back to the US would do them. Low, clear ratcheting up tariffs are tariffs that allow businesses time to change their strategy without disrupting their income streams. Instead, we're going to bankrupt basically anyone who isn't already a multi-national.
Maybe I'm an idiot and I'm missing something clear, but to me, the reason why the S&P500 and passive investing have been so successful since basically the 1940's is simply that we have had competent, technocratic administrations for the last hundred years. Other countries' markets have not fared so "efficiently."
Again, maybe I'm missing something, but I'm looking at this much more defensively than I did under the first administration. The one thing I can't figure out is the dollar. My brother is obsessed with the "dollar milkshake" theory, whereas it seems clear that we are messing with reserve status and are trying to intentionally weaken the dollar... I just don't know. It doesn't really make much sense what we're doing, and I haven't found anyone who can make an argument that makes sense to me.
Import-substitution is bad for econ 101 reasons that most people who have an axe to grind against Dems would've been absolutely capable of grasping only a few years ago. Now, it seems so many are willing to turn off a part of their brains for this short-sighted wishful thinking. "Well, the official narrative is that we're doing this to get manufacturing back, so let's wait and see" is something most people would immediately perceive as bs if a Dem was sitting in the Oval Office. Seeing a politician campaign on a stupid platform, and then getting surprised he actually shoots himself in the foot spending political capital pursuing is also very Latin American.
The good part is that the soon-to-be-coming recession the federal government just fabricated out of thin air is fully self-inflicted, and therefore somewhat easy to fix. The bad part is you have (at least) 4 more years of this lunacy, so it might take a while.
A command economy has different elements of the economy ordered around to do what leadership wants.
That seems a lot more likely.
For 30 years, IT managers at blue chip US corporations have exploited the H1-B visa program by saying, "No," and then hiring a never-ending stream of barely-capable Java coders from programmer mills in India, take 5 times longer to make an app than it should have taken, get promoted, and leave everyone holding the bag with shitty web app that we all hate because it's too slow, too bloated, and doesn't work like it needs to. And the companies who can't get enough of that bullshit in-house just hire it out to sub-sub-contractors that do the same thing. Can we not invest in our native population and education systems this time around? I'm so tired of the fact that 90% of the IT staff in my Fortune 250 is Indian, and I know people who would be better at their jobs living in my home town. It hurts our community and our country, in the long run, and by the VERY same logic as re-homing our chip production.
"most" is doing a lot of work here. don't forget you probably don't want to live next to an airport, railroad, chemical plant
https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/barcelona-pop...
from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40752920 ("Barcelona has a 16,000 people per square km density - that’s already one of the highest in Europe.")
Capital moves faster than meat space. To defend the human (affordable housing), you have to regulate. The whole "just build more, I want my AirBnB" argument boggles the mind considering the physical system constraints in play. Easier to just ban AirBnB.