pickovven (u/pickovven)

pickovven commented on The Engineer’s Predicament thedriftmag.com/the-engin... · Posted by u/nickwritesit

pickovven · 3 years ago

As someone who is aligned with these general politics, I would strongly encourage folks working towards a "post-capitalist" world to start by clearly and explicitly stating what that means. What would qualify as "post capitalist?" It's hard to work towards something vague and undefined.

I think this is worth raising because the article sweeps across a broad range of topics that -- in my humble opinion -- are not necessarily "post capitalism." And it may be the case that some political concerns mentioned are in opposition to a post capitalist world. For example, what if the fastest way to a post capitalist world is a changing American politics and then using American hegemony to export those politics?

pickovven commented on Urban Density and Home Prices econlib.org/why-scott-ale... · Posted by u/luu

endisneigh · 3 years ago

I find this article to be embarrassingly bad. Just find metro areas and compare neighborhoods and observe density levels, and see the effect on price.

The author clearly has an agenda and basically wrote the article around it. Why all the conjecture?

I was bored so I did a very crude estimate.

Houston has 982,694 homes according to the census data in 665 square miles.

Austin has 426,899 homes in 271 square miles.

So Austin is denser and more expensive. To me this makes sense. Denser areas are more popular, and popularity results in high income people coming in and biding up prices. This is why there are no dense areas that are cheap.

pickovven · 3 years ago

The article isn't great but your analysis is probably worse.

No per Capita analysis? No income analysis? Only two cities?

This is actually a challenging question to answer. Thankfully other people have done research and we can reference that if we actually want to know the answer, rather than just prove our priors to ourselves.

pickovven commented on Urban Density and Home Prices econlib.org/why-scott-ale... · Posted by u/luu

kj4211cash · 3 years ago

Well written and fairly convincing. Slightly off topic but the side point about highway capacity expansion projects interests me. I’m guessing it won’t be popular. But it’s true that more people are traveling and choosing to travel despite the congestion. I’ve never heard the urbanists so quick to dismiss such projects address these points.

pickovven · 3 years ago

Urbanists disagree that more VMT is inherently good. VMT is good because of why people make trips - see their family, go to work, shop etc.

The alternative isn't eliminating those trips. It's taking the trillions of dollars we waste and spending it on an alternative, more efficient modes that deliver better outcomes (travel time, cost, speed, comfort, etc)

pickovven commented on How Silicon Valley Bank Avoided Oversight wsj.com/articles/how-sili... · Posted by u/marban

1vuio0pswjnm7 · 3 years ago

"Some observers fear that the decision to disregard the $250,000 cap on insured deposits could generate irresistible pressure to insure deposits fully regardless of the amount. This would undermine the purpose of the cap, which was to give large depositors an incentive to monitor the conduct of their banks and subject the system to market discipline. A total guarantee, many argue, is an invitation to irresponsibility. This may be right."

SVB was happy to conceal their precarious position until they were required to recognise and disclose losses when they sold some of their bonds.

Is there any reason we should promote personal responsibility on the part of depositors.

The author's children are VC. What appears to be an easy question suddenly become challenging.

pickovven · 3 years ago

SVB is actually an inverse example of that hypotheses.

The biggest depositors added pressure on the bank to be more risky.

pickovven commented on The Political Biases of GPT-4 (are very much still there) davidrozado.substack.com/... · Posted by u/recuter

realjhol · 3 years ago

We want it to answer truthfully and impartially I.e. not showing favoritism to leftist talking points and politicians, and artificially censoring talk of right wing ideas.

It's really not complicated.

pickovven · 3 years ago

I honestly can't tell if this reply is satire.

pickovven commented on SVB lobbied the government to relax some Dodd-Frank provisions fortune.com/2023/03/11/si... · Posted by u/lxm

pugworthy · 3 years ago

I'm struck by how many comments imply a certain amount of, "It was obvious" to this whole story.

Yet a lot of startups clearly were all in with SVB.

So what's the real lesson here for a startup?

pickovven · 3 years ago

There's not really a lesson here about running a start-up for founders. However there's definitely a lesson here about how societies work that Silicon Valley could better internalize.

pickovven commented on SVB lobbied the government to relax some Dodd-Frank provisions fortune.com/2023/03/11/si... · Posted by u/lxm

eep_social · 3 years ago

Here is Dean Baker quoted in The Intercept, “SVB would have been required to undergo regular stress tests before the [Dodd-Frank] revision; among the stresses you look at are sharp rises in interest rates, which is apparently what did in SVB. Presumably, if its books had been subject to this test, the risk would have been detected and they would have been required to raise more capital and/or shed deposits.” [1] And in fact we know that the proximate trigger was SVB announcing that they were raising capital.

[1] https://theintercept.com/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-used...

pickovven · 3 years ago

The is the most "smoking gun" explanation that I've seen of how everyday corruption caused this. However, I'd love to see a follow that confirms the law resulted in a change in bond purchases by SVB.

pickovven commented on An open-source database of companies affected (or not) by the collapse of SVB affectedbysvbornot.com/... · Posted by u/ghuntley

dmix · 3 years ago

Indeed. Which is what has diluted this conversation so heavily. Everyone wants to point at the tech Startups using SVB for boring banking as the why (and the "I told you VC was a bubble") instead of the 2008 style wall St gambling the bankers engaged in using tech startup money. The VCs might be responsible for the bank run but they aren't why the bank made stupid mortgage investments and ultimately failed.

pickovven · 3 years ago

You think banks putting money in bonds is gambling?

If so, how do you suggest banks make money?

pickovven commented on Unidentified Halo, an anti-surveillance wearable project beccaricks.space/Unidenti... · Posted by u/interweb

pythonguython · 3 years ago

It is well established that the US government conducts mass surveillance on its population. I don’t know what government surveillance is like where you’re from. I actually prefer a world where humans enforce laws rather than automated systems (in general). While officers aren’t perfect, they can use their own discretion to enforce laws and that sounds better to me than living in a world with cameras watching us and instantly fining us for infractions. I personally don’t obscure my own license plate, but I believe someone who does, can do so for privacy purposes without lacking integrity or honesty.

pickovven · 3 years ago

I personally want to live in a country where 40,000+ people don't die from traffic violence every year.

I also think the subjective enforcement of laws by uniformed officers has a terrible record in this country. It strains credulity that anyone would trust a police officer more than a speed camera. I personally think it says something about their actual concerns with oppressive government.

Despite your apparent belief the government is already doing mass surveillance that impacts you, you specifically have a problem with traffic enforcement. Presumably you own a registered vehicle with a serial number and have a drivers license. Forgive me for being skeptical of "concerns about privacy" that specifically entail traffic enforcement but aren't strong enough to forgo vehicle ownership.

I don't think anyone's personal paranoia about traffic enforcement or their personal consumer preference to use a private automobile should take priority over reducing the thousands of deaths and injuries on our roads.

pickovven commented on OpenAI's CEO Once Bragged About His Hoard of Guns and Gas Masks futurism.com/the-byte/ope... · Posted by u/cratermoon

unethical_ban · 3 years ago

I vote! But seriously, prepping is more than just "without rule of law, SHTF".

Prepping should be iterative based on the likely scenarios in your region/the world. Natural disaster, pandemic, food supply disruptions, gasoline/diesel shortages or embargo, tap water contamination, chemical release, widespread breakdown of civil services (even if temporary).

Fire or earthquake in California. Hurricanes in the east/gulf. Chemical spills via train or in Houston/industrial areas. Bomb cyclones in the north. Water treatment plants/pipes failing (Flint; Jackson MI). Lack of water in AZ.

Stay in decent shape. Have water/water purification on hand. Have emergency rations/canned food available for a week or more for each person in the house. Have backups of all critical digital data on a portable drive. Have a decent medkit. Have a radio that can receive weather bands which are also used for civil service announcements - or even buy several baofengs and use them on the FRS band (against FCC regs, but who cares in a crisis).

Some bug-in supplies, and a bugout bag, are good things to have for a variety of reasons.

pickovven · 3 years ago

TBC I'm not talking about voting. I'm talking about strengthening social ties. In a disaster scenario, being engaged in a strong community that looks out for each other is much more likely to be useful than owning guns.

I'd love to see the venn diagram of preppers and something like EMT volunteers.