Readit News logoReadit News
octopod12 commented on Can we cut the AI Agent for X thing already    · Posted by u/MenesJo
octopod12 · a year ago
the cycle repeats, in every tech transition, there is a bandwagon, and herd mentality amongst VCs and young tech-bros. which involves FOMO and me-too cloning.

in the sharing economy it was AirBnB for X, Uber for Y etc.

in the blockchain boom, it was BlockChain for logistics etc.

in the crypto boom it was NFT for this or that.

in the SaaS era it was cloud CRM, cloud HR etc.

in the dot-com mania, there was pets.com and webvan.com

octopod12 commented on Johnny LLM Can't Read Code   jasonhpriestley.com/24-9-... · Posted by u/jhp123
DannyBee · a year ago
This whole silly post seems to have been written so they can make this statement, which they seem to believe is profound:

"This failure is not surprising, because any machine learning model, no matter how many magic parameters it has, is only capable of ex ecuting a fixed pipeline of mathematical operations. In algorithmic complexity terms it is O(1). Such a process can not solve any problem that requires iteration or search, not even a simple algorithm like find ing a square root. Certainly it can't tackle the complex logic involved in answering queries about code, where even determining the behav ior of a pure boolean expression is known to be in the much harder NP-complete complexity class."

It is neither profound nor even close to correct.

A CPU capable of only executing a fixed pipeline of mathematical operations can easily deal with all the things they talk about. Amazing? No, it just turns out they have confused a whole bunch of unrelated CS concepts to make a huge muddle of a post (mixing algorithmic complexity, decidability, simulation vs explanation, etc).

This is true even if the pipeline is truly fixed (IE everything passes through every functional unit), as it was in the past.

Th counterpoint to the argument made by the author is simple:

When it comes to determining output, any of the NN's are universal enough could be taught to arbitrarily approximate a CPU well enough to execute code and determine the output with arbitrary levels of precision. Period. Once you take cost out of it, and we venture into the realm of the "what can be done", the author's statement is simply wrong on its face. Even within the real of "less abstract", there are lots of formal papers/studies of this with specific NN types, etc. Even for transformers, which people love to beat up on as huge brute force machines, see, e.g., https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.13163

You can even throw compilation of every possible programming language we have compilers for right now in there as a pre-step if you want, since we are in the realm of abstract "what is possible".

Heck, you can go further - any of these NN's could be taught to arbitrarily approximate any machine driven process that can explain code.

That is, if you build a combination static/dynamic analysis tool/whatever that explains code, you can theoretically build an NN can approximate that tool. This is easily provable, and directly counter to the author's point.

Now, much like the author's nonsense, neither of the above is not a particularly useful result in practice[1] - among other reasons, we can prove that it is possible, but the proofs are not constructive, they only show that it must be possible to exist, it doesn't tell you how to make it :)

That's before you get into cost/etc.

There are plenty of things to bash AI code understanding on that are totally valid criticisms, we don't need to waste our time on strange, wrong ones.

[1] - though nvidia would probably be very happy if you build a 1t parameter model to try to approximate a $100 intel CPU's results and convince others to use it.

octopod12 · a year ago
A turing machine is fixed pipeline too. if you define the "pipeline" as its finite set of symbols and states.

and I agree that a folksy sounding title usually hides fuzzy thinking.

but the interesting point made is whether an LLM can figure out if it has "actually" solved a problem or not (?). Technically, this is the classical "halting" problem.

octopod12 commented on Pear AI founder: We made two big mistakes   twitter.com/CodeFryingPan... · Posted by u/tosh
shombaboor · a year ago
this says more about YC than this particular founder (lots of these types nowadays): i.e. their process, their due diligence, who is advanced from 1000's of applications.
octopod12 · a year ago
there is a culture of "gaming" that is in fact promoted by YC. one of the questions they had was to show an instance where the founders "hacked" or "gamed" a system.

ie, game the test, game the admission, game everything. and some folks see this as "hustle".

eventually their own process gets gamed.

gaming incentivises a culture of "pretension" - you dont know sh* but you fake it. fake it til you make it. copy code-repos, trample over licenses, whatever, who cares as long as you are getting ahead.

octopod12 commented on Pear AI founder: We made two big mistakes   twitter.com/CodeFryingPan... · Posted by u/tosh
361994752 · a year ago
Apologies if this is a dumb question, but PearAI, Continue, and Cursor all seem like different versions of GitHub Copilot to me. Am I understanding that correctly? Why are we funding so many 'GitHub Copilot's?
octopod12 · a year ago
Here is my theory.

1) management types who have never coded love the idea that coders can be replaced or minimized by said tooling. hence hey fund any and all projects.

2) coders excited by llms reach out to the nearest projects they can relate to, namely, code assistants, test generation assistants, doc generation, and generally any automation in the coding workflow. so, you will see a lot of me-too tooling.

octopod12 commented on Y Combinator Traded Prestige for Growth   unfashionable.blog/p/yc/... · Posted by u/SvenSchnieders
pj_mukh · a year ago
This is an indictment of Twitter tbh. Not YC. A lot (most?) YC founders aren't even on Twitter.
octopod12 · a year ago
the founders were status-signaling on twitter.

it is clear they are in it for the "status" of being YC. and they dont care a whit about solving anybody's problem.

they do this for a while, get it on the resume and go back to their 270K jobs after a few months.

this in and of itself is a hustle, lol. they hustled YC.

Deleted Comment

octopod12 commented on Y Combinator Traded Prestige for Growth   unfashionable.blog/p/yc/... · Posted by u/SvenSchnieders
noobermin · a year ago
I think something people might be missing is the context around this post, which is that the founders are being dragged on twitter, essentially.

Since a lot of you hate the site, I'll summarise briefly: one of the founders did a thread starting with the following post:

"

I just quit my 270 000$ job at Coinbase to join the first YCombinator fall batch with my cofounder @not_nang

We're building PearAI, an open source AI code editor. Think a better Copilot, or open source Cursor. But you've heard this spiel already...

"

One thing not conveyed here is the first line is in unicode bold and the end is littered with emoji spam. Essentially, the post ticked a few rage inducing boxes for a certain kind of tech twitter user. It was rather cringe, reading like a thread from get-rich-quick influencer types while also likely imbueing some readers and quote tweets with a little jealousy they wouldn't openly admit. This was probably the impetus that pushed one or two angry people to poke around their product and find out about the open source code cloning and the fact the founders were overselling (which founder doesn't, I guess...) which lead to a rout of publicly mocking them and YC in general, resulting in blog posts like the OP, I guess.

I personally don't really think one company amongst the whole batch is enough to judge the start of a trend for YC "trading prestige for growth" or whatever. I think the discussion of prestige is in general is an interesting one, I just don't think PearAI is indicative of it more than they themselves just being hucksters which happens in tech in general.

octopod12 · a year ago
The founders showed hustle, as every founder must. nothing wrong with that in my book.

But they need adult-guidance on communication. You dont go around twitter boasting about your 270K job etc. They need to show grown up hustle (grit, perseverence, etc). Not high-school (mine is bigger than yours) hustle.

Deleted Comment

Deleted Comment

octopod12 commented on Ask HN: What are you working on (September 2024)?    · Posted by u/david927
pyrrhotech · a year ago
Building algorithmic trading models. So far results continue to be good with every model outperforming the market on both absolute and risk-adjusted basis since going live.

Since launching https://grizzlybulls.com in January 2022:

Model | Return | Max drawdown

-------------------

S&P 500 (benchmark) | 21.51% | -27.56%

VIX TA Macro MP Extreme | 64.21% | -16.48%

VIX TA Macro Advanced| 59.13% | -19.12%

VIX TA Advanced | 35.20% | -22.96%

VIX Advanced | 33.39% | -23.93%

VIX Basic | 24.29% | -24.23%

TA - Mean Reversion | 22.30% | -19.92%

TA - Trend | 27.07% | -24.98%

This is an unleveraged, apples to apples comparison. These are not high frequency trading models. Most of them only change signal once every 2-4 weeks on average. During long signals, the models are simply long the S&P 500 and during short signals, they go to cash.

One of the pros of this macro swing-trading/hedging style is high tax efficiency, by holding a core ETF long position that never gets sold and then selling S&P 500 futures (ES or MES) of equal value to the ETFs against the long position. This way your account will accumulate unrealized capital gains indefinitely and you'll only pay tax on the net result of successful hedging. The cherry on top is that the S&P 500 futures are section 1256 contracts that are taxed at 60% long term / 40% short term capital gains rates regardless of the duration they are held.

The models use a variety of indicators, many of them custom built. Most important are various VIX metrics (absolute level, VIX futures curve shape/slope, divergences against S&P 500 price, etc), trend-following TA metrics (MACD, EMV, etc), mean-reversion TA metrics (Bollinger Bands, CMO, etc), macroeconomic (unemployment, housing starts, leading composite), and monetary policy (yield curve inversion, equity risk premium, dot plot, etc). They've been backtested very cautiously to avoid overfitting to the best of my ability.

octopod12 · a year ago
wont your strategies incur short-term cap gains ? so, they will have to outperform the S&P 500 index to account for it.

great start, and good luck.

u/octopod12

KarmaCake day46September 29, 2024View Original