multicast (u/multicast)

multicast commented on Financial market applications of LLMs thegradient.pub/financial... · Posted by u/andreyk

wuj · a year ago

HFTs exploit price inefficiencies that last only milliseconds. The time-series data mentioned in the article is on the scale of seconds. I wonder if its possible to get the time-series data on the scale of milliseconds, and how that would affect the training of the objective function in a LLM.

multicast · a year ago

Todays derivatives and their pricing are based on the premise that stock prices can not be predicted and behave like a Brownian motion system. If you take real time data from any stock and calculate in order how many times a stock went up in a row or down in a row you end up almost perfectly with a natural probability distribution. HFT's are involved in market making and arbitrage both of which already involves high speed, the later much more, and earning minuscule profits. There are ghost patterns who can be mined for a certain period of time but they are not solely calculated based on trading time series. They involve complex proprietary calculations, some machine learning and relationships between stocks. There is no pattern in the flow how a particular stock is trading.

Also from a long-term view its very questionable. How should a model be able to predict that in the middle of a high interest environment, a tech bubble burst and a dumping stock market in general, a new platform called Chat-GPT gets launched that basically carries the whole world's stock market to new heights which causes among other things retail investors to liquidate bonds and other high interest environment assets and flood it into the stock market. It is more than completely of the text-book. That can not be predicted. The million dollar spending guy is at the end the same way off as the guy who simply employs a 100 python line trend-following strategy.

multicast commented on Show HN: Wallstreetlocal – View investments from America's biggest companies github.com/bruhbruhroblox... · Posted by u/anonyonoor

pmalynin · a year ago

I think that’s not entirely correct either, for example Nvidia had to file a 13F for its holdings after their value of ARM shares exceeded 100M. And the requirement I believe is not for investment advisors (which is its own thing, see Register Investment Advisors from the SEC), but broadly extends to institutional investment managers which is a lot looser of a definition that can certainly include private companies like broker-dealers, in addition to hedge funds, RIC, etc as well as public corporation like Nvidia depending on the types of activities they are involved in.

multicast · a year ago

Good point, I did not mention that. Non-registered investment advisors are also included but this relates more to banks, bank holdings and broker/dealers (e.g. investment banks) who trade on 'investment discretion'[1]. Thus it means entities that are not registered as an investment advisor but still invest on behalf of outside clients and not their own book. This does clearly not apply to Nvidia. It is highly unlikely and not logical that they would manage money for third parties in the name of the public corporate entity, just for a pure side hustle. As that would not contribute much financially (in terms of fees that are earned from managing money on behalf of others) nor to their core business.

The reason for this 13F filing, as you already guessed to some extent, is that Nvidia is a publicly traded company. As such it is subject to a wide range of SEC filings including those from section 13[2].

Nvidia seems to be a rare case. Acquiring public equity, as a company - especially as a public one, just for the purpose of managing concurrent assets, is very unusual but not out of the question - just away from the textbook. Given the fact that its ARM, whose acquisition failed before Nvidia filed the 13F, it could also serve some other purpose, e.g. showing that interest is still present.

[1] https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq#:~:text=Bank....

[2] https://www.legalandcompliance.com/securities-law/sec-report...

multicast commented on Show HN: Wallstreetlocal – View investments from America's biggest companies github.com/bruhbruhroblox... · Posted by u/anonyonoor

multicast · a year ago

Very interesting project, I like the overview. I also really like that you took the finance industry as a theme for your project.

>> Every company in the United States

Sorry for being so fussy but I highly recommended changing the word 'company' / not using it in the future, as the title is quite misleading. No private company in the US has to register with the SEC or has to file with the SEC. 'Investment advisors', who also go by other aliases like 'asset manager', have to file a 13F filing only if they a) are registered with the SEC due to fund marketing purposes and b) if they have, as you already mentioned, over $100 million dollars under management (not 'in holdings'). This is also why large family offices (.e.g. Bayshore Global Management of Sergey Brin) won't show up in any SEC records as they meet the second but not the first criteria - same goes pretty much for any non asset-management company (e.g. McDonald's) as they do not raise money for fund vehicles. However, you have take this into account on your website, and further below you wrote "money manager" which is correct in finance jargon.

I hope this gives you a better understanding, keep up the great work.

multicast commented on Google to pause Gemini image generation of people after issues theverge.com/2024/2/21/24... · Posted by u/helsinkiandrew

multicast · 2 years ago

We live in times were non-problems are turned into problems. Simple responses should be generated truthfully. Truth which is present in today's data. Most software engineers and CEOs are white and male, almost all US rappers are black and male, most childminder and nurses are female from all kinds of races. If you want the person to be of another race or sex, add it to the prompt. If you want a software engineer from Africa in rainbow jeans, add it to the prompt. If you want to add any characteristics that apply to a certain country, add it to the prompt. Nobody would neither expect nor want a white person when prompting about people like Martin Luther King or a black person when prompting about a police officer from China.

multicast commented on Sora: Creating video from text openai.com/sora... · Posted by u/davidbarker

multicast · 2 years ago

Even though this is highly impressive, I think it is still important to stay rational and optimistic to see the other side of the coin.

Every industrial revolution and its resulting automation has brought not only more jobs but also created a more diverse set of jobs. Therefore also new industries are created. History rhymes, the ruling fears in such times have always been similar. Claims are being made but without any reasonable theories, expertise or provable facts (e.g. Goldman Sachs unemployment prediction is absolute bs). This is even more true when such related AI matters are thought about in more detail. Furthermore, even though employing tens of millions of people probably, only a few industries like content creation, movie etc. are affected. The affacted workforce of these industries is highly creative, as they are being paid for their job. The set of jobs today is big, they won't become cleaning staff nor homeless.

This technology has also to proof itself (Its technical potential is unlimited but financially limited by the size of funds being invested, and these are limited)

Transition to the use of such tools in corporations could take years, depending on the type and size and other parameters. People underestimate the inefficiencies that a lot of companies embody - and I am only talking about the US and some parts of Europe here. If a company did their job for 2 decades the same way, a sudden switch does not happen overnight. Affected people have ways to transition to other industries, educate themselves further and much more. Especially as someone living in the west, the opportunities are huge. And in addition, the wide array of different variables about the economy and the earth, and everything its differing societies are, comes into play: Some corporations want real videos made by real people; Some companies want to stay the way they are and compete using their traditional methods; Corporations are still going to hire ad agencies - ad agencies whose workflow his now much more efficient and more open to new creative spheres which benefits both customer and themselves. They list could go one endlessly.

Lots of people seem to fear or think about the alleged sole power OpenAI COULD achieve. But would that be a problem, would "another Alphabet" be a problem? Hundreds of millions of people benefited and are benefiting today from their products. They have products that are reliable and work (This forum consisting of tech experts is a niche case, nearly all people don't care at all if data on them is being used for commercial purposes). Google had a patent guaranteed monopoly on search. But here we have: an almost non patented or patentable market, an open source community, other companies of all sizes competing, innovation happening and much more. It is true that companies like OpenAI have more funds available to spend than others, but such circumstances have always driven competition and innovation. And at the end of the day, customers are still going to use the best product they have decided to be so.

I know I may be stating the obvious but: The economy and the world is a chaos system with a unpredictable future to come.

multicast commented on Craig Wright offers settlement to Bitcoin developers fortune.com/crypto/2024/0... · Posted by u/greyface-

devaiops9001 · 2 years ago

This is the clown who claimed to have private cryptographic keys which someone else used to write on the Satoshi Blockchain "Craig Wright is a fraud".

Pretty much every claim he ever makes either directly or indirectly requires absolute illiteracy to cryptography.

At first this Wright guy is just frustrating and annoying, but if you watch him over time you get insight into what serious delusion and mental illness really look like.

multicast · 2 years ago

Possession of something does not prove nor equal ownership

multicast commented on DoorDash raises minimum pay to $29.93 per hour in NYC about.doordash.com/en-us/... · Posted by u/1594932281

standardUser · 2 years ago

In Germany and the Nordic states wages are largely controlled by the powerful trade unions, the likes of which do not exist in the US and likely could not exist under current labor laws. Without powerful trade unions to set the floor, we have minimum wages. The alternative - allowing poverty wages - ensures the success of business models that can only survive by employing workers who rely on state aid (or are otherwise destitute). In effect, removing the wage floor just makes government bigger and almost everyone poorer.

multicast · 2 years ago

> In effect, removing the wage floor just makes government bigger and almost everyone poorer.

Nope, this is absolutely false, it is exactly the other way around.

I am not quite sure what you are trying to accomplish with your whole comment. It neither makes sense nor is it strictly related to what I just posted. Did you want to debate an argument of mine, just post your personal views about labor in general or simply troll? I am always open for a discussion.

Besides are labor unions (you are referring to the British english version) heavily involved in labor and wage discussions in the USA. The US is literally a labor union hell, so I don't get your point on that matter either.

multicast commented on DoorDash raises minimum pay to $29.93 per hour in NYC about.doordash.com/en-us/... · Posted by u/1594932281

multicast · 2 years ago

That's awful. That happens when bureaucrats, who often don't understand the most simple basics of economics, mandate socialist rules to private companies. The companies affected by these policies will now just fire people to keep staff cost on the same level as before, period. Thus less people trying to fulfill the role of the same amount of delivery guys as before. And such more stress to fulfill more orders in the same amount of time. In other words the situation for the delivery staff is worse than before. Doordash will now have a much higher staff turnover rate where drivers quit after a few months due to e.g. burnout and are replaced by new workers who intend to take the high wage but only for a few months. Serious long-term employee positions are now gone. And as always nobody forces anyone in any way to work for doordash - people have their own free will to choose to work for doordash for any dollar amount that is offered to them.

No minimum wage is what creates competition between companies, all industries affected by minimum wages already have and will have shitty wages for ages to come. Switzerland as an example is a country where cleaners (CHF 4K a month on average) without any serious education earn a bit less than a well educated professional mechanic and 2x more than a local branch bank employee in Germany, simply because of no minimum wage restrictions (also after monthly living expenses in Switzerland which are relatively high in certain aspects).

multicast commented on Intro to Large Language Models [Video] youtube.com/watch?v=zjkBM... · Posted by u/georgehill

multicast · 2 years ago

The majority representing non technical population, journalists and 50+ expert dependent bureaucrats (mostly law academics - never worked really) shitting their pants over alleged "ai" dangers indoctrinated by "ai" executives to push ahead regulation to secure their market position, or in the case of google because it makes their now shitty search business model obsolete in the long term, by creating entry barriers thus reducing competition.

Meanwhile a guy somewhere in Africa adjusting an answer probably stating that humans can do photosynthesis: bruh

multicast commented on The FTC sues to break up Amazon over an economy-wide “hidden tax” thebignewsletter.com/p/th... · Posted by u/PaulHoule

mjx0 · 2 years ago

The unlimited “freedom of contract” is an idea that the US Supreme Court reversed position on in the 1930s – merely 30 years after it was invented – and for good reason. For those wondering, “freedom of contract” as a term of art is essentially the idea that a government cannot regulate the behavior of parties to a contract, because the involved parties have some unlimited power of contract. The US Supreme Court found this in Lochner v. New York (1905), and reversed it in West Coast Hotel Co. v. Parrish (1937).

You seem to have implied a business’ right to exist, and operate at the expense of others free from regulation. As demonstrated, the earlier part of your comment was rather light on factually correct information, but could you cite the jurisprudence backing this idea of yours?

multicast · 2 years ago

Yes, almost every country in the world has restrictions on this. For example in the case of employment, with a contract stating that you have to work for life for a company, you can easily challenge it in court since it is more than obvious unconscionability. But the limitations on 'freedom of contract' by the us government never made or make the contracts businesses went into with amazon illegal or contestable.

There is no such thing as 'operate at the expense of others' in this case. Again, nobody forces you to buy at amazon. There is nothing illegal with setting requirements for a seller, e.g. not selling at a discount elsewhere. If you do not wish to sell on amazon you can freely choose to sell at any other store. If one is whining about not having the same reach: Nobody has the right to challenge amazon for just being good and demand anything from them. There is no law that gives you the right to be able to do business 'in the land of amazon' at conditions that please you.

Amazon is a private company. The FTC is treating amazon exactly how many people wrongly see it, as a sort of common good - quote:

'Amazon is a monopolist. It exploits its monopolies in ways that enrich Amazon but harm its customers: both the tens of millions of American households who regularly shop on Amazon's online superstore and the hundreds of thousands of businesses who rely on Amazon to reach them.'

(https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23991590/read-the-ftc...)

Bureaucrats.....Good luck proofing 'conspiration to monopolize'???. A thing which is not even possible in a free market society. The practices of amazon are in fact competitive - doing everything to kill the competition - a thing every capitalistic incentivized company who wants to become or stay at the top does. Those practices of the FTC are anti-competitive and a huge intervention, their policies is what hurting customers.