The transactions to and from Kraken can definitely be tracked since they would have a record of the actual wallet address you sent your funds to. As for things that happen after that money hits your wallet - you’re right they wouldn’t be able to track it.
I checked the Monero subreddit just to see if my understanding of it tracked with what people who actually own it say and it looks like they agree that transferring from a KYC exchange does allow tracking for transactions coming out or into the exchange.
https://reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/ppcusq/moving_funds_bet...
I also didn't say you transfer directly into Kraken. Instead, you would use at least 1 or 2 other wallets before transferring into Kraken, because that bypasses their scanning.
Kraken is still cheaper while doing that than paying a 10% fee for an ATM.
You still need to create a wallet, key, etc. and that is not easy to do for beginners without an exchange like Kraken. Most DNMs use temporary addresses so it's not a good idea to try to transfer directly from a bitcon ATM to a DNM.