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lemonlym commented on Charting Form Ds to roughly see the state of venture capital “fund” raising   tj401.com/blog/formd/inde... · Posted by u/lemonlym
dang · 2 days ago
Oof that title. Particularly when the site design is so substantive!

I've edited it to use what I think is representative language from the article itself. (This is to allow it to spend more time on HN's frontpage, because the article itself deserves it.)

lemonlym · 2 days ago
Hey, thanks for this! Prompted me to take a look at the HN guidelines :).
lemonlym commented on Charting Form Ds to roughly see the state of venture capital “fund” raising   tj401.com/blog/formd/inde... · Posted by u/lemonlym
pringularity · 2 days ago
(I don't think this would change the overall message of the analysis), but one reason why the "Fund I" bump might be so pronounced compared to other reports is because of the "SPV as a service" data that was hinted at in the takeaways.

It's very common for these single-asset SPVs to be titled, "[Abbreviation] Fund I" -- but these aren't really the same type of "Fund I" as a multi-security venture fund run by a professional manager.

E.g.: (1) These are entities that are sort of arbitrarily titled "Fund I" as part of a template naming convention, but there's not as much of a direct expectation that they'll have a corresponding Fund II, III, etc. (2) Whether they do is more of a function of the underlying portfolio company raising a subsequent financing and giving the same SPV manager an allocation (which small time SPV managers often don't get pro rata for), rather than the fund manager's ability to raise a subsequent blind pool fund II.

lemonlym · 2 days ago
One hack to find a lot of these SPV as a service filings is to search "a series of". They do have a formulaic filing process, but from looking into it, adding "fund I" is not part of that. It usually does indicate that its the first syndicate of the parent promoter, but they don't do it for every filing. Here is a search query where you can kind of see the variance: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=a%2520series%2520of&cat...
lemonlym commented on Charting Form Ds to roughly see the state of venture capital “fund” raising   tj401.com/blog/formd/inde... · Posted by u/lemonlym
noodlescb · 2 days ago
Not to be too ageist but the author appears to be a Stanford college student? Interesting thoughts but also feels kind of naive in that it is using a lot of assumption of a logical market, which is kind of adorable in a world where investing has devolved into a hype gambling market where Tesla has become a meme stock.
lemonlym · 2 days ago
On the topic of "logical markets", it's not so much how logical a market is and more how much liquidity and available funds exist in the market. It doesn't matter if the market is logical or not, if there is a relative scarcity of funds there is bound to be a contraction.
lemonlym commented on Charting Form Ds to roughly see the state of venture capital “fund” raising   tj401.com/blog/formd/inde... · Posted by u/lemonlym
BlandDuck · 2 days ago
It is a concern that this could simply reflect changing naming conventions for private funds. There is nothing that requires a fund to use the "Fund I" convention.

Would it be possible to confirm the trend using Form ADV instead of Form D filings?

lemonlym · 2 days ago
Form ADV is the form used to register an investment advisor, which is fundamentally different than disclosing a fundraising event. It could definitely be interested to look into. The SEC presents its data in a relatively simple format. Here is the link for Form ADV historical filing data: https://www.sec.gov/foia-services/frequently-requested-docum...
lemonlym commented on Charting Form Ds to roughly see the state of venture capital “fund” raising   tj401.com/blog/formd/inde... · Posted by u/lemonlym
topaz0 · 2 days ago
Not that it would drastically change the conclusions, but do the numbers for "fund i" include the forms that say "fund ii" etc (by virtue of the fact that "fund i" is a substring of "fund ii" etc)?
lemonlym · 2 days ago
You were actually right. I went and checked to see that some (not all) values were double counted. I've updated the graph to reflect this, and added a note. The trend remains identical, despite this change. Thanks for inspiring me to double check.
lemonlym commented on Charting Form Ds to roughly see the state of venture capital “fund” raising   tj401.com/blog/formd/inde... · Posted by u/lemonlym
Havoc · 2 days ago
I'm in an adjacent space so quite interesting to me. Couple of concerns:

1) This Fund+Roman Numeral notation is universal among funds. Meaning this data isn't VC. It's use of fund structures. Real estate, PE, private credit maybe bit of hedge funds etc...and yes also VC.

2) Filling trends are affected by jurisdiction fashions so to speak. One of the big fund jurisdiction makes a small rule tweak and everything pivots there. Or away. The funds we're setting up today are structured differently and in different jurisdictions than 2 years ago. Same for regional focus. Think about what that does to a single jurisdiction trend analysis like this.

3) The spike coincides pretty neatly with covid, lockdown and that sudden injection of cash trillions into the financial system. So a spike in fund entities registered makes sense. Haven't looked at who got those trillions, but I'd wager it was bigger institutions not young VC operations starting their first fund.

Still the core hypothesis seems sound for funds overall. Regardless of type a lot of these funds will indeed be on a 2-4 year investment period. So it does broadly check out that there might be a softening of funding supply coming up.

lemonlym · 2 days ago
Great points! Obviously this analysis is not unconfounded as the methodology is pretty scrappy.

On point 3, I think both large and small investment groups saw large growth. This is lightly supported by the spike in filings related to SPV as a service companies like Angellist.

lemonlym commented on Mathematical Foundations of Reinforcement Learning   github.com/MathFoundation... · Posted by u/ibobev
lemonlym · 6 months ago
Another great resource on RL is Mykel Kochenderfer's suite of textbooks: https://algorithmsbook.com/

u/lemonlym

KarmaCake day99December 5, 2022View Original