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kznewman commented on GPT-5.2   openai.com/index/introduc... · Posted by u/atgctg
EastLondonCoder · 2 months ago
I’m with the people pushing back on the “confidence scores” framing, but I think the deeper issue is that we’re still stuck in the wrong mental model.

It’s tempting to think of a language model as a shallow search engine that happens to output text, but that metaphor doesn’t actually match what’s happening under the hood. A model doesn’t “know” facts or measure uncertainty in a Bayesian sense. All it really does is traverse a high‑dimensional statistical manifold of language usage, trying to produce the most plausible continuation.

That’s why a confidence number that looks sensible can still be as made up as the underlying output, because both are just sequences of tokens tied to trained patterns, not anchored truth values. If you want truth, you want something that couples probability distributions to real world evidence sources and flags when it doesn’t have enough grounding to answer, ideally with explicit uncertainty, not hand‑waviness.

People talk about hallucination like it’s a bug that can be patched at the surface level. I think it’s actually a feature of the architecture we’re using: generating plausible continuations by design. You have to change the shape of the model or augment it with tooling that directly references verified knowledge sources before you get reliability that matters.

kznewman · 2 months ago
Solid agree. Hallucination for me IS the LLM use case. What I am looking for are ideas that may or may not be true that I have not considered and then I go try to find out which I can use and why.
kznewman commented on Scientists now know that bees can process time, a first in insects   cnn.com/2025/11/12/scienc... · Posted by u/Brajeshwar
Loughla · 3 months ago
Growing up on a farm taught me that animals are absolutely able to think and learn. Not in the same way as humans, but I'm fully convinced there are degrees of consciousness.

Watching new calves play in spring meadows is one of the most purely joyful things you can ever see. They have best friends and will avoid playing with other calves until their friend comes to play with them.

kznewman · 3 months ago
Thanks for this memory. I had similar experience watching spring lambs and swore off mutton/lamb/etc same day.
kznewman commented on I've wanted to play that 'Killer Shark' arcade game briefly seen in 'Jaws'   remindmagazine.com/articl... · Posted by u/speckx
MomsAVoxell · 3 months ago
I grew up on Scarborough Beach, in Perth, Western Australia, during the 70's. This was basically peak Australian beach culture - everything you could want in a sunny day at the beach - bikini's, surf, sharks, hamburgers, jewellery lost in the sand, the ever shrinking swim suit .. the whole deal. Bike gangs and surf nerds, newly returned from Vietnam, beating each other to smithereens in the baking parking lots while the girls watched on. I can still smell the sun cream lotion, and remember the smell of my Dads hamburger grill, erected in the ruins of the famous 50's "Snake Pit" haunt, replete with ghosts and memories of dances gone by, of rock and roll been and gone, replaced with stoner rock and KISS or Abba, depending on your thing.. I have muscle memory buried deep for the regular cleaning of the onion slicing machine, the giant bottles of mayo I had to refill, every single day. The beetroot stains and the harvesting of the 'crispies' from the competing deep fryer shop, "Peters by the Sea", who sold us kids a pack of the junk for 10c a bag, and which is the only remaining survivor of the era, still slinging buns even today ..

The esplanade in those days was basically a sullen row of shops, one after the other offering beach-goers refreshments and entertainment, luring every customer in with the promise of fun and cheer .. and every single one of those 8 or so shops had a small Cold War going on against the other, for entertainment devices.

At one end, there was an air-hockey paradise with a side row of electromechanical games, one of which was indeed Killer Shark, along with another airplane bombing game that ran on a big map, rolling underneath the camera through which the player would view and send down their 'light bombs' as we kids referred to them, way back then. My first impression of "Germany", as it were, rolling endlessly in some kind of ethereal, hypnotic landscape. Pinballs and stuff too, almost an overwhelming selection of blinking chaos into which to pour coins. Each shop had its speciality - my Dads' place (MINDERBINDERS, in case there are any sand gropers about) specialised in pinball and stag films in a back room, for those who knew the secret handshake.

Killer Shark was great - it was so clearly a mechanical game that you could never beat, but on occasion the odd punter would score a free game or so. Even more of a treat, the proprietors would sometimes start off the games with 20 credits or so, just sitting there, to attract the teens. There was another electro-mechanical, ocean themed game, something like "SPEAR HUNT", which offered players a few snapper and some stingrays upon which to direct their sun-kissed ire, should they have a remaining 20c or two to waste.

I loved that era of my life (was just a boy starting school) .. 1976 .. the brand new "Breakout" appears suddenly, and it immediately soaked up all the coins from the neighborhood. I remember seeing the service guy open up Breakout and all the coins just came pouring out .. and then, slowly, the rest of the strip went video and computer, Space Invaders arrived, and the electromechanical games slowly phased out, becoming ever more unpopular and under-used as the year rolled over.

My first memory of Killer Shark was fun - my last, sadness, as its faded exterior got loaded onto the truck to be replaced by something brighter, flashier, more challenging. Soon enough there were only 'computer games' and pinballs, and all those delicate machines got replaced, one by one. Eventually, the esplanade itself got replaced with a modern monstrosity, and the era ended with the fervent twang of the 80's arriving, power synth chords and all.

But I still remember the squealing joy of a player, spearing themselves a shark, only to be pissing themselves with laughter/fearjoy once the shark 'recovered' and made them face a frontal attack. It was, somehow, cathartic.

Until a real shark showed up in the surf and bit a kids leg off, during prime surf hour.

That made me the computer kid I still am, today.

kznewman · 3 months ago
Also wanted to foot stomp on the good writing (mean it). Glad the missing leg never held you back.
kznewman commented on Rich dad, poor dad – the story that formed my views on making money   micaelwidell.com/rich-dad... · Posted by u/mwidell
twistedanimator · 10 years ago
Hands down the best book I have read on money is Your Money or Your Life: http://amzn.com/0143115766

I'm a naturally frugal person, but the book helped me formulate new ways of thinking about money and my relationship with it. The major concept being that money is a representation of your life energy. You work X hours a day at an hourly rate of $Y. Knowing those numbers allows you to think about purchases in a new way. For instance, "That new phone will cost me 2.5 days of work" or "If someone offered me $500 or the new phone, which would I take?" If you chose the $500, then you know you don't need to buy the phone.

I would recommend Your Money or Your Life before all other financial "self-help" books. In fact, I think I'm going read it again.

kznewman · 10 years ago
Money as "life energy" approach helps me be thrifty, but my real struggle is how do I asses risk when I want to buy an asset. If I wanted to use $500 from my work to buy a share of SpaceX, does it provide a better return than any other investment at some acceptable risk ? I don't see the life energy approach as helping this question but I need to read the book you recommend.

Note that SpaceX is not publically traded, but it represents assets I would like to own.

kznewman commented on Congress Match - Does your Representative (or Senator) represent you?   popvox.com/blog/2012/anno... · Posted by u/patton01
maco · 14 years ago
It's not a paywall. It's free.

Here's how it works: you use PopVox to communicate with Congress, sending support or oppose messages which are publicly tallied so all can see which way any given Congresscritter's distric was leaning. This tool then shows you, bill by bill, whether your two senators and congressperson voted the way you told them to through PopVox.

If you contact them some other way, PopVox can't possibly know that (nor can anyone but your congresscritter, so there's no accountability), so it's useless without an account.

kznewman · 14 years ago
Its a paywall. Just I have to pay with info rather than money. It is not free.

To accomplish the goal of knowing how my congresscritter (really?) matches with me, I should not need an account. If I wanted you to contact them for me then OK but to call the site useless without an account just makes it so.

kznewman commented on Why Google Does Not Own Skype   edition.cnn.com/2011/TECH... · Posted by u/vladd
kznewman · 15 years ago
If all this is true, I would have a problem with a co-worker who would stand up and lie. By starting the meeting by being "super supportive" while knowing along with co-conspirators that you were trying to kill it, a good deal of creditability has been destroyed.

Maybe I am naive, and this is how things really get done, but regardless of which side I might have been on during this meeting, he is no longer trusted.

kznewman commented on Chinese Stealth Plane J-20 Revealed   asb.tv/blog/2011/01/the-m... · Posted by u/psogle
kznewman · 15 years ago
I like the multiple images here but for some analysis I saw this a couple days ago...

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/jsp_includes/articlePrint.jsp...

2c, I think the fixation on 4th-Gen, 5th-Gen or whatever is distracting. How fast, how far, How much would be more interesting questions.

kznewman commented on Security in 2020   schneier.com/blog/archive... · Posted by u/CrazedGeek
kznewman · 15 years ago
I think there are some visionary things here but he misses the 'consent' part. By using free services we do give consent and if we don't like the privacy policies of Facebook et al then nobody forces us to use them. Yes providers should be honest about their policies and some do play dirty tricks. We learn which ones are not really honest so if we keep using them, we can’t really claim surprise or lack of consent.

Free stuff costs. Not money but there are costs. In the future world he is imagining there will be some who want to pay for their own machines and control the software that runs on them.

Being a parasite means riding a host and giving up some critical decisions about where and how the host lives.

[Edit for grammer]

kznewman commented on What life is like in a state where firefighters are paid voluntarily   theferrett.livejournal.co... · Posted by u/AndrewDucker
gaius · 15 years ago
These guys volunteered for a job that might involve getting burnt alive. So I think their value-system likely precludes corruption of that sort.
kznewman · 15 years ago
My point was not meant to imply they would accept bribes. They do the job to fight fires so why agree with the idea that we should stop them when some equipment was not yet fully amortized? If they accept bribes or not, the idea you stop volunteers from doing what they want (fight fires) is wrong.
kznewman commented on What life is like in a state where firefighters are paid voluntarily   theferrett.livejournal.co... · Posted by u/AndrewDucker
kznewman · 15 years ago
The solution of including the cost of fire fighting in the cost of owning the house itself helps fix what I see as the mistake in thinking that I don't benefit from having my neighbors house fire put out.

If volunteer fire fighters are told by the people who they protect that it is ok to watch a house burn (because necessary costs were not covered somehow) then philosophically what is to stop them from not helping when I don't slip them extra money because their labor is volunteer anyway? I think this eats at the soul of the community.

u/kznewman

KarmaCake day73April 21, 2009View Original