kaiabwpdjqn (u/kaiabwpdjqn)

kaiabwpdjqn commented on S&P 500 triggers 15-minute trading halt for the second time this week bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/rococode

barry-cotter · 6 years ago

They’re not lying. I live in Shanghai. Things are kind of going back to normal. The rumor mill says schools may open up again in April. If the coronavirus wasn’t under control it would be impossible to hide. Without public health measures it has a doubling time of four to five days. The health system here would be overwhelmed and it would be obvious to all that it was. I’m not saying the numbers the CPC are publishing are entirely accurate but the trend in cases definitely is. Given strong enough public health measures this can be brought under control. It’s now in over a hundred countries so there will be further outbreaks but with sufficient measures we can limit the deaths until a vaccine is developed.

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

What’s been going on in Shanghai? How serious has the lockdown been?

kaiabwpdjqn commented on S&P 500 triggers 15-minute trading halt for the second time this week bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/rococode

helen___keller · 6 years ago

> only temporarily correct

FWIW this is not uncommon with pandemics. For example, WHO[0] says "During the post-peak period, pandemic disease levels in most countries with adequate surveillance will have dropped below peak observed levels. The post-peak period signifies that pandemic activity appears to be decreasing; however, it is uncertain if additional waves will occur and countries will need to be prepared for a second wave."

For example, during the spanish flu, the second wave was far deadlier than the first. But there were additional factors (WWI and a mutation that made it more dangerous to the young).

This can continue until enough of the population has been infected that we have herd immunity. This is why there's long-term estimates of 20-60% of population being infected[1][2]

[0] http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/communicable-diseas...

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/world/europe/coronavirus-...

[2] https://www.axios.com/congressional-physician-predicts-75-15...

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

So here’s my question. China seems to have done a good job locking down Beijing and preventing an outbreak there. They did not do a good job in Wuhan. Per what you have described above, doesn’t it seem probable that Beijing will see a resurfacing given that relatively few people were exposed to it in the first bout?

kaiabwpdjqn commented on Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says npr.org/sections/goatsand... · Posted by u/tmlee

neonate · 6 years ago

I don't know if it's racism but I also am sure that if it had started in London we wouldn't be hearing about "the British virus" and so on.

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

Spanish Flu disagrees with you

kaiabwpdjqn commented on S&P 500 triggers 15-minute trading halt for the second time this week bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/rococode

petilon · 6 years ago

I see only doom & gloom comments here. Did people miss this positive note:

"On Thursday, China said it had just 15 new coronavirus cases and 11 deaths over the previous day." See: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/coronavirus-news.ht...

China has controlled the problem. By taking drastic measures the rest of the world will too. In a couple of months the virus will be under control. The stock market will not recover as quickly as it crashed, but it will recover! How do I know that? Because crashes have happened in the past, and the world didn't collapse and disappear. A single company can collapse and disappear but not the entire stock market.

The only question is, how long will it take to recover. I think it will take 2 to 3 years. People who sold during the financial crisis of 2008 did not get to participate in the recovery that followed. There isn't an email or a notification that goes out when the market starts to recover. Attempting to time the market is futile. Staying out of the market will only mean that you will miss out on the largest portion of the recovery.

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

And what if China is wrong, lying, or only temporarily correct, causing the virus to resurface when society resumes?

kaiabwpdjqn commented on Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat ma.ttias.be/government-ac... · Posted by u/Mojah

peterburkimsher · 6 years ago

At the risk of being down-voted, I'm not trying to start a political debate. I'd just like to know, as someone outside the USA, how this is affecting the election campaigns there.

Are personal costs of the pandemic encouraging people to support subsidised healthcare, and therefore a left-wing party?

Or is the xenophobic rhetoric of "blame China/Europe/travellers/etc" causing people to support a right-wing party?

I also haven't seen a full discussion of the chain of cause and effect. There was a shift from the primary sector to tertiary services, which led to urbanisation to find demand for services. Young people living in cities can make more friends than before, and this is good! It also means that there are more people living in close quarters, who can spread disease more effectively. I'm willing to face the risks of urban life instead of subsistence farming, but I wonder if other generations resent that.

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

There’s not much right vs left yet. It’s just the Democrats figuring out who their candidate will be. The pandemic has a very small effect on the US right now. Things are closing but mostly in anticipation of the near future. Almost none of it is in the middle where the right lives.

There’s been some yelling at trump over his poor handling but it’s mostly just virtue signaling at this point. When the elections come around for real we will probably see something of this if/when it has evolved into something more serious here.

I say this in Boston, just a few degrees of separation from some of the COVID confirmed individuals.

kaiabwpdjqn commented on U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days nbcnews.com/politics/dona... · Posted by u/sahin

allovernow · 6 years ago

Do you really think some moron bumbled his way into the most powerful office in the world? Have you stopped to think about how unlikely something like that is?

You may not agree with his style (I don't) or his personality (hate it) but the guy has to be minimally intelligent to make it as far as he has. At the very least he knows how to work a crowd and spot opportunity.

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

> Do you really think some moron bumbled his way into the most powerful office in the world?

Yes, and in light of anecdotes of how decisions are made in the current administration: double yes

kaiabwpdjqn commented on The flying taxi market may be ready for takeoff: study cnbc.com/2020/03/06/the-f... · Posted by u/prostoalex

allovernow · 6 years ago

To be fair, autonomous flight is probably an order of magnitude easier than autonomous driving. Particularly because it's far more predictable and you can put beacons on drones to automatically avoid collisions.

The sky is mostly empty space and landing zones are clearly marked and purpose built. You don't have to worry about any pedestrians or unpredictable drivers or roads.

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

The sky is mostly empty space when, and only when, there are not flying taxis at sufficient scale for society to bat an eye

kaiabwpdjqn commented on Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says npr.org/sections/goatsand... · Posted by u/tmlee

iforgotpassword · 6 years ago

Because China is a good month ahead of the rest of the world, and is much denser populated in the cities (which are also much larger than ours).

The initial cover up didn't help either. Once they instated the lockdown, they could test the backlog of people. That took quitea while. But now the spread has pretty much stopped, while everywhere else on this planet it increases day by day.

After the initial cover-up got public, the West couldn't get enough of reporting about it, and how this is the reason it could spread so fast, how irresponsible it was, and how it's typical for evil China. Now we have that virus here, plus two month of knowledge about it, and we're still mostly being reactive instead of proactive. In China's defense, when they tried to cover it up, much less was known about the disease, like it's asymptomatic spread. Now the cards are on the table and we're being ignorant, as if ignoring a problem makes it go away. But hey, when things are getting really really ugly for us, we can still go back to blaming China for their initial cover-up.

Watch Italy closely the next days, and compare it to China when they were at a similar stage. It will tell you what's to come in your country too. Another thing that's suspicious about Italy is the high CFR of around 6%. It most likely means they're not doing enough testing, only the severe cases, so the rest wanders around the country happily spreading it further.

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

CFR in Italy is lower in every age category than in China.

It’s Simpson’s paradox

kaiabwpdjqn commented on Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says npr.org/sections/goatsand... · Posted by u/tmlee

blymphony · 6 years ago

As an Asian American, let's not try to speak on behalf of a minority of 18+ million.

Especially to downplay a possibly valid concern of an individual of your supposed group

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

It’s a stupid concern. The reason the government is incompetent is that the government is incompetent. That’s not uniquely American, and there’s no evidence that race has played into any of this. We didn’t exactly change our tune when Italy freaked out. Does that mean we’re racist against Italians?

kaiabwpdjqn commented on Covid-19 is now officially a pandemic, WHO says npr.org/sections/goatsand... · Posted by u/tmlee

kaiabwpdjqn · 6 years ago

As an Asian American... no, I don’t think racism played into this at all. Would have been exactly the same if it started in London.