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iabacu commented on A chat with Ray Dalio   thehustle.co/a-chat-with-... · Posted by u/thm
dirtyid · 4 years ago
Even conservative GDP and growth estimates will put PRC in high income within a few years. Official 2021 per capita figures is $100 away, so theoretically reachable at end of year even with stymied covid growth projections. That said middle income trap is overstated to the point that it may not exist, including by OG researcher who coined the term. TLDR is middle income countries with successful industrial structure still generally grows significantly better than developed economies.

As for Rozelle, he does good work. But reality is even with deficient interior education infra, PRC is still massively overproducing talent after massive brain drain. There's record youth unemployment, again some of which is covid driven, but talent oversupply was evident pre-covid. The demographic crisis is going to be difficult to negotiate, but ultimately PRC has too manypeople, specifically undereducated older cohorts that can't be integrated into modern economy. Whatever happens PRC will be better off with 1B people than 1.4B, simply too many mouths to feed. Meanwhile there's plenty of talent to go around to build comprehensive power which more than GDP undergirds national strength. Xi/CCP's vison for "moderately prosperous society" was $10000 per capita, leadership knows PRC has too many people to reach developing country incomes. The current pipe "China dream" is $40000 per capita by 2049 (100 year anniversary) probably not realistic but still a lot of overhead to improve productivity. Likely enough to establish PRC as geopolitical superpower even with at low high income level. At end of the day, a populous country with $20000 GDP and 20 aircraft carriers is still much more powerful than a small country with $100000 GDP and none.

iabacu · 4 years ago
One thing that you overlook is something that even Xi points out as an issue: right now, China needs more quality than quantity.

For example, in semiconductors, Taiwan, with a much smaller population (and arriving late in the game) beat the US, Japan and Korea. China, with 600k STEM graduates per year, is still trying to catch up.

On covid vaccines, even Russia has their own vaccine that reach mRNA levels of protection, but China is still stuck with the Covid Zero policy.

Quantity was definitively an asset for Chinese growth based on cheap labor. That source of growth is almost running dry (to the point where they are resorting to labor camps). But at some point, quantity becomes more of a liability.

iabacu commented on Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab, but feared debate could hurt   telegraph.co.uk/news/2022... · Posted by u/steelstraw
karpierz · 4 years ago
Is there a way to disprove the lab leak hypothesis?
iabacu · 4 years ago
An animal sample from the wet market that was shut down. (I spooned they were all bagged).

If they were all destroyed, then go get a sample from their natural reservoir (wherever those animals came from)

iabacu commented on  Facebook Whistleblower Leaks Thousands of Pages of Incriminating Internal Docs   npr.org/2021/10/04/104292... · Posted by u/sizzle
flandish · 4 years ago
What I don't understand is how this is different than Nike making shoes with child labor overseas in the "global south", etc. That harms children, for profit.

Facebook is a for profit organization. This is the rule with organizations like this. If given enough time, size, and lack of shielding, any corporation will eventually cause harm in some way.

We seem to have less focus on "Nike whistleblowers" or similar, you get the idea.

iabacu · 4 years ago
This is not about children, though, it's about investors.

If Nike makes a material claim to investors (e.g. that children labor is not used), but the claim is revealed to be knowingly false, then that's securities fraud.

iabacu commented on Fixing under-engineered code vs. fixing over-engineered code   github.com/Dobiasd/articl... · Posted by u/Dobiasd
iabacu · 5 years ago
If the over-engineering is in the wrong dimension (one that the project doesn't need), then the cost will be double: adding the over-engineering and then detangling from it.

The problem is there are too many dimensions a given project can be over-engineered if the future is uncertain. So even an educated guess has a good chance of being wrong.

iabacu · 5 years ago
Even if the guess is reasonable and is eventually true, like "we'll need to scale, so might as well prepare for 100x capacity now", it's still frequently a mistake to over engineer.

The architecture to support something that is not needed tends to introduce rigidity into the codebase, adding a tax to future changes in order to maintain those features.

iabacu commented on Fixing under-engineered code vs. fixing over-engineered code   github.com/Dobiasd/articl... · Posted by u/Dobiasd
iabacu · 5 years ago
If the over-engineering is in the wrong dimension (one that the project doesn't need), then the cost will be double: adding the over-engineering and then detangling from it.

The problem is there are too many dimensions a given project can be over-engineered if the future is uncertain. So even an educated guess has a good chance of being wrong.

iabacu commented on Apple’s new abuse prevention system: an antritust/competition point of view   blog.quintarelli.it/2021/... · Posted by u/simonebrunozzi
iabacu · 5 years ago
Why stop at scanning photos in your phone?

With lower power sensors, head-mounted devices with always-on-sensors, and whatnot, why not sample real-time hashes that can tip LEO about potential crimes happening?

Then why sacrifice recall in order to achieve high accuracy?

Err on the side of uploading more hashes. Then feed it all into a ML so it can use other data to filter out potential false positives.

Then if in a distance future, any LEO wants to investigate you for whatever reason, the set of potential hashes associated with your account will provide sufficient evidence for any court to authorize further non-hashed data access (it doesn't matter if they were all false positives)

iabacu commented on El Salvador Plans to Use Electricity Generated from Volcanoes to Mine Bitcoin   npr.org/2021/06/11/100523... · Posted by u/pseudolus
cartosso · 5 years ago
I can't believe people still don't see the obvious issue that PoW has no sense and it's impact gets progressively worse as the market cap of BTC increases. The more adoption BTC will have, the more incentive will powerful entities have to take part in mining (obvious analogy: US dollar, the people who control it have the most power in the global financial system). Also, the more valuable BTC becomes, the more new miners will join in the mining race, since the average payout per kWh spent should stay at a relatively constant % of market cap. Both of this observations lead to the clear conclusion that energy spent on useless hash cracking will continue to increase, which is just plain stupid. Humanity cannot afford to waste energy in such an obviously non-nonsensical way; if you want to keep the crypto train going, fine, but at the very least switch to PoS.
iabacu · 5 years ago
The argument about POW energy is overblown.

There's an exponential decay of rewards of mining BTC (50% every 4 years).

Do you think the price of BTC will increase exponentially, faster than the decay over the long term? I don't think so.

This implies that the energy consumption of bitcoin mining will eventually decay exponentially too.

iabacu commented on Replit used legal threats to kill my open-source project   intuitiveexplanations.com... · Posted by u/raxod502
teraflop · 5 years ago
> I think a simple apology and some self reflection would go a long way here.

The CEO is continuing to double down today, more than 2 months after the original conversation, so I'm not sure that's likely: https://twitter.com/amasad/status/1401957368510906369

iabacu · 5 years ago
This is bizarre.

If the intern did steal code, the CEO only wants the project to be taken down?

Any IP agreement worth their salt would require Replit to send a formal/legal request asking the intern to destroy and return any stolen IP.

So I call bullshit on the CEO, and the intern should probably sue Replit for slander.

iabacu commented on Replit used legal threats to kill my open-source project   intuitiveexplanations.com... · Posted by u/raxod502
stuaxo · 5 years ago
The threats seem directly at odds with the CEOs tweet here https://twitter.com/amasad/status/1401617251464138754

This whole saga is pretty sad really.

While replit isn't doing very much in wrapping these languages in a frontend (and something that is clearly straightforward to replicate), they are doing all the work that comes with scaling that to many users on the web (I guess that includes moderation).

They should have just been happy with that.

It takes more than just being able to run all the languages in sandboxes to compete - if you tried this, people would be mining bitcoin and hosting all sorts of awful stuff.

Really strange / insecure attitude.

iabacu · 5 years ago
The difference between what Amjad tweets publicly and what Amjad threatens the ex-intern privately is jarring.

That makes me think that either the tweets are empty virtue signaling; or Amjad is legit worried that an intern open-source project can accidentally outcompete his company!

iabacu commented on Bitcoin’s plunge intensifies, tanks 30% to $30k in single day   cnbc.com/2021/05/19/bitco... · Posted by u/koolba
throwaway5752 · 5 years ago
Your comment appears to be the only one in Hacker News history that says, "bitcoin crashes to 30k". Maybe the phrasing was different?

It's not good when an asset class drops by 30% in 24 hours.

iabacu · 5 years ago
That was not a direct quote on anyone here or elsewhere, more like a sentiment that was around last year.

https://twitter.com/shortthebanks/status/1133735039596994560

https://twitter.com/Joe_wants_BTC/status/1316044080690929666

Dropping X% in 24h sounds bad, but without putting it in the context of the asset's historical volatility, sharpe ratio, overall portfolio construction, etc; it looks like a very superficial reading (perhaps just good enough for a headline)

u/iabacu

KarmaCake day216October 30, 2015View Original