Really feels like it went from "AI is going to destroy everyone's jobs forever" to "whoops bubble" in about 6 weeks.
No worries, we’ll be back at the takeover stage in another 6 weeks
Readit Newsiab commented on Mark Zuckerberg freezes AI hiring amid bubble fears telegraph.co.uk/business/... · Posted by u/pera
iab commented on Show HN: Kitten TTS – 25MB CPU-Only, Open-Source TTS Model github.com/KittenML/Kitte... · Posted by u/divamgupta
Another position that largely misses the point I think. There is no absolute positioning on this - LLM assistants are applicable at most stages, whether you need to maximize your own judiciousness or maximize velocity depends on the current problem, and you.
Open source (classical) & use-restriction is kinda at-odds, so it doesn't really make sense. That's not to say people don't do it - you can restrict the software however you want, it's just not open source (maybe look at some equivalent of Ethical Source?)
iab commented on There's a '10% to 20% chance' that AI will displace humans completely cnbc.com/2025/06/17/ai-go... · Posted by u/geox
A smart person just said: my hypothesis that event is likely happen! It happens 90% of the time!
Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: ok, 50%, either happens or not.
Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: all my previous predictions were correct, now let's apply Bayesian update: (1-0.9) * 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.1, so now posterior belief that the event is likely to happen drops from 50% to 10%.
Nah this is too complicated I think
iab commented on There's a '10% to 20% chance' that AI will displace humans completely cnbc.com/2025/06/17/ai-go... · Posted by u/geox
I'm not a statistician, but I'm pretty sure this is not how odds work. "Either I win the lottery tomorrow or I don't!"
Sounds right to me, honestly people make stats so much harder than it needs to be
iab commented on There's a '10% to 20% chance' that AI will displace humans completely cnbc.com/2025/06/17/ai-go... · Posted by u/geox
To be fair, once-in-a-species events don't have experimental evidence to go on. It either happens or it doesn't. End of the day, it's the humans who develop and deploy it that do the deed.
If it happens or it doesn’t then it must be 50/50 odds
iab commented on Utah becomes first US state to ban fluoride in its water bbc.com/news/articles/c4g... · Posted by u/Jimmc414
This take has a few problems:
Poor people in the US are capable of using fluoride toothpaste and flossing. At least at homeless shelters at outreach things I’ve been to, toothpaste and toothbrushes are freely available. Your argument hinges on them being incapable on the whole and needing a Benevolent But Superior Intelligence to provide an alternative for them.
Second, it completely ignores any debate over effectiveness or side effects. It could well be that fluoride in water is great for teeth but bad for brains. The objections to fluoride in water I’ve seen are more along those lines. Im not clear the validity of those claims but for example anti fluoride advocates don’t typically object to chlorine in water to kill germs. That seems the core issue- without bias from stakeholders, is the benefit of fluoride proven and the risks disproven? It’s hard to answer because a study needs to span many years and exclude many variables.
And in general I think that is what needs to happen with these type debates. Take them _out_ of the sphere of charged political opinion and focus on getting to the objective truth of risks and benefits, then be transparent. People can handle “here are the known pros and cons and what we think that means” over “there are only pros and no cons and if you disagree you hate poor people”
“Objective truth” - I’d love to know how one goes about this, feels like a Nietzsche reading here would be helpful
iab commented on ‘Bluey’s World’: How a Cute Aussie Puppy Became a Juggernaut hollywoodreporter.com/tv/... · Posted by u/adrian_mrd
One thing I really appreciate about the show is the music - so many of the best episodes are extended musical variations on great themes from classical music, and done so skillfully that you don't realize you're listening to Mozart's "Rondo Alla Turca" or Saint-Saens' "Organ Symphony" until you're at the emotional climax of the episode when the entire piece is restated, which has been priming you for a big theme or breakthrough in the story.
This is strongest in the "Sleepytime" episode which is based on the "Jupiter" movement of Holst's "The Planets" . . . honestly I have to skip this episode when it comes up because it makes me tear up so much, and most parents I know who also watch the show have similar reactions. "Sleepytime" is really art.
Sleepytime is the best episode of any show I’ve ever seen
iab commented on Musk Calls Entitlements the 'Big One' to Cut, Countering Trump bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/toomuchtodo
Entitlements, deducted from your paycheck but then not returned to you?