Readit News logoReadit News
hopler commented on The wave of unicorn IPOs   economist.com/briefing/20... · Posted by u/wskinner
pas · 6 years ago
Citing shadowstats is not really a good sign in any argument. Even if they might have a point, the whole site is not about that point.

The changes in CPI calculation (continuous consumer basket adjustment, etc.) are well documented, well known in econometrics, and is considered a sane thing. (After all you can't really equivocate a TV from the 50s and a TV now.)

And while it's always possible to make better adjustments, shadowstats does not argue for this, it just argues against a strawman conspiracy.

https://moneymaven.io/economonitor/emerging-markets/deconstr...

"For example, a can of tomato sauce that cost $.25 at Piggly Wiggly in 1982 cost $.79 at my local market in early 2015. Starting from the 1982 price, the CPI predicts that it should cost $.61 in 2015 while ShadowStats predicts that it should cost $2.64. Starting from the 2015 price and working backwards, the CPI predicts that it should have cost $.32 in 1982 while ShadowStats predicts that is should have cost $.08. Based on these calculations, we see that the CPI underestimates inflation, as measured by the Tomato Sauce Index: The ratio of the 2015 predicted price of $.61 to the 2015 actual price, $.79, is .77, an underestimate of 23 percent. The ratio of the ShadowStats prediction to the actual price is 3.32, an overstatement of 223 percent. For tuna, both indexes overestimate inflation, the CPI by 34 percent and ShadowStats by 478 percent, and so on."

also: http://blog.jparsons.net/2011/03/shadow-stats-debunked-part-...

And to address the "they miss it part". Well, probably most people don't buy stocks, and most people don't buy private equity limited partnership chunks, so ... CPI-U does not measure "asset bubbles".

hopler · 6 years ago
Over half of USAmericans buy stock via 401k/403b or pension
hopler commented on The wave of unicorn IPOs   economist.com/briefing/20... · Posted by u/wskinner
nytesky · 6 years ago
This was exactly the problem during dot.com. I worked in optical networks and we all scoffed at Web business as vapor ware. But when dots went bust demand for bandwidth plummeted and optical networking cratered soon after.
hopler · 6 years ago
Global Crossing still owes my company money for work I did for them!
hopler commented on Much of the “science” used in design is bullshit (2014)   mjparnell.com/bullshit_sc... · Posted by u/spking
westoncb · 6 years ago
There's a David Foster Wallace short story on this subject. It's called "Mister Squishy". Here's an especially relevant excerpt from an overview/interpretation of it that I wrote[1]:

Now it seems that the purpose of the focus group, rather than gathering information about consumer response to the snack-cake, is to improve the design of future focus groups. Schmidt, however, informs the reader through glimpses we are given to his thoughts during the session, that the focus groups have no material impact: rather than using the collected data to make inferences about consumer preferences, it is desirable to end with a nebulous analysis which could conclude one outcome or another based on which direction the client company is already planning on moving in: the focus groups can only confirm a decision which has already been made: a deviation on this will result in the termination of the marketing firm.

[1] http://westoncb.blogspot.com/2012/12/interpretation-of-david...

hopler · 6 years ago
Focus groups are the "Uber" of management consulting -- low wage independent contractors doing the same work
hopler commented on Much of the “science” used in design is bullshit (2014)   mjparnell.com/bullshit_sc... · Posted by u/spking
99052882514569 · 6 years ago
It still amazes me that they're persisting with the fat-belly logo. It looks like a fat dude with his belly hanging out. It's not something that, once seen, can ever be unseen, even years later. Makes me chuckle on the inside, every time, and plays its part in reminding me of dangers of pop over-consumption.
hopler · 6 years ago
Every abstract logo can be interpreted in many ways if people culture jams it.
hopler commented on Why the Flow of Time Is an Illusion   nautil.us/issue/71/flow/w... · Posted by u/dnetesn
mannykannot · 6 years ago
That quote also shows how difficult it is to even discuss the idea without invoking the notion of a flow from a past to a future.

Science provides both a way of calculating what is going on, and also, apparently, explanations (up to the limits of our knowledge) for what happens. To eliminate the notion of time's flow from discussions of physics, would we have to abandon the concept of causality from our explanations?

hopler · 6 years ago
Yes, causality is one of the ways of defining Time.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_of_time

hopler commented on U.S. Navy drafting new guidelines for reporting UFOs   politico.com/story/2019/0... · Posted by u/PhaedrusV
thestartup · 6 years ago
While not a conclusion, the reports of objects that defy the known laws of physics are extensive by this point.

If the incidents are not the result of "alien activity" perhaps the US Military does have supremely advanced technology under wraps and is demonstrating this technology to ambiguously create the idea that it could be "aliens".

hopler · 6 years ago
Please link to some reports from reputable sources.
hopler commented on U.S. Navy drafting new guidelines for reporting UFOs   politico.com/story/2019/0... · Posted by u/PhaedrusV
grayed-down · 6 years ago
Not at all sure why they're graying you down, but you make some very good points. There are just way too many credible witnesses who have observed objects in the sky far outperforming the principals of aeronautics and the laws of physics as we know them.
hopler · 6 years ago
Please link to some example reports.
hopler commented on U.S. Navy drafting new guidelines for reporting UFOs   politico.com/story/2019/0... · Posted by u/PhaedrusV
0003 · 6 years ago
They reference Chris Mellon, who is a part of Tom Delonge's To the Stars organization. I am not an expert here but he has this public benefit corporation that always struck me as weird. It's like a charity, but Tom Delonge gets interest and royalties from it. Also: in 2017 they recognized 25M in stock comp expense... Like WTF. That is not possible for a company that is basically worthless.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1710274/000114420419...

hopler · 6 years ago
Tom Delonge of Blink-182 rock band.

It seems this new thing is a mix of UFO hokum and music-related sales. Definitely some financial engineering shenanigans in there.

Deleted Comment

hopler commented on Android updates are getting slower and slower, despite Google's best efforts   unlikekinds.com/article/a... · Posted by u/whalabi
maaaats · 6 years ago
> Android devices aren’t kept up to date, leaving their users unable to benefit from advancements in the platform.

What advancements? Both iOS and Android have for a few years reached maturity, not much exciting with each new update. At least not without new hardware, as most updates are to support something physical (notch, fingerprints, face scan etc).

I used to hate my phone not being updated, so switched to a brand of Android that kept them up to date. But lately I don't really mind. Only reason I upgraded to Pie this weekend (after being bugged by the updater for months) was because of a few emojis I couldn't see properly when being sent to me. The update hasn't done anything big. Things are a bit rounder, the clock is now in the wrong corner. Some BLE issues as well, making me regret the update.

hopler · 6 years ago
Android fixed the totally messed up Battery Saver in O->P

and added Night Light to compensate for breaking Twilight/BlueLight etc.

u/hopler

KarmaCake day432December 10, 2018View Original