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fullshark commented on The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline   bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/alephnerd
JPKab · 9 hours ago
"Only if the mothers in aggregate truly believe that their children will have good lives, then will they have them."

Then please explain why birth rates throughout human history, when life was vastly more difficult and dangerous than it is now, were so much higher?

Nobody had to meet this bar you set before. Let's just be honest here. There were three recent developments, all of which were, by themselves, good things. But those three things, combined, created an unprecedented phenomenon.

The 3 things:

1.) The birth control pill decoupling sex from pregnancy. 2.) Women being granted autonomy and being allowed to join the workforce and leave marriages without suffering economic and social destruction 3.) Social support programs to create a poverty safety net funded by taxpayers instead of charity

No society on the planet ever had these things until the mid to late 20th century. And these things all contribute to radically reduced birth rates, in every single society that has implemented them together.

This take of "all you have to do is make the society encourage family formation" makes it sound like the three developments I listed are irrelevant, and that humans always just had this explicit menu of options that made family formation an optional pursuit, independent of a good life. That is simply not the case.

We need to be honest with ourselves about the uncharted territory we're in. It's not simple. Modern humans live in what would have been historically viewed as a Utopia. Our ancestors 5 generations back would have viewed our "jobs" as fake. They wouldn't even recognize what we do on a daily basis to earn food and shelter as labor of any kind. We have entire metropolises filled with people with soft hands who have literally never had to participate in their own survival from the perspective of harvesting food or cooking/heating fuel. Your comment just reeks of someone who is disconnected from the historical realities of 99.99999% of the humans who have ever lived.

fullshark · 9 hours ago
Analysis from a time before the birth control pill is pointless. It's an alien society.
fullshark commented on Wall Street just lost $285B because of 13 Markdown files   martinalderson.com/posts/... · Posted by u/nomdep
H8crilA · 4 days ago
I don't understand why people think they know why stocks move up or down. There are clear cases from time to time, but in general the market doesn't explain itself. The reasons may not even be explainable in a way that's comprehensive to a human.

Reminds me of this question - why did the USSR collapse? You can describe dozens of influences which acted all at the same time, but there isn't a one paragraph summary answer.

fullshark · 4 days ago
Humans seek to understand phenomena and they use narratives to accomplish that. Accepting that there are multiple factors always involved and chaos reigns is disturbing.
fullshark commented on Data centers in space makes no sense   civai.org/blog/space-data... · Posted by u/ajyoon
Terr_ · 7 days ago
I'm convinced that >30% of this comes from ideas leaking out of fiction such as like Neuromancer, and percolating through the minds of wealthy people attracted to some of the concepts. Namely, the dream of being a hyper-wealthy dynasty, above any earthly government, controlling an extraterritorial Las Vegas Fiefdom In Space. (Which in the book, also hosted a powerful AI.)

Then they work backwards, trying to figure out some economic engine to make it happen. "Data centers" are (A) in-vogue for investment right now and (B) vaguely plausible, at least compared to having a space-casino.

fullshark · 7 days ago
This idea came from musk wanting to fold his X and xAI investments in with his (likely successful) spaceX IPO.
fullshark commented on Nvidia shares are down after report that its OpenAI investment stalled   cnbc.com/2026/02/02/nvidi... · Posted by u/greatgib
zmmmmm · 8 days ago
the hit to microsoft the other day was pretty interesting

I saw reports attributing it to a miss on earnings from Azure but they were off by 0.4% on 39% growth. That's 39% instead of 39.4%. And the company stock dropped 10%. This is all of Microsoft - 10% down (!).

It has to tell you there are a LOT of people primed to sell in a hurry on bad news. The "bubble" talk subsided a lot after nVidia smashed earnings last quarter, but largely overlooked how much their whole situation is based on pent up demand. It completely masks the fundamentals.

I still feel like we're sitting on a volcano and seeing puffs of smoke and feeling earth tremors.

fullshark · 8 days ago
The intense race to dump the risk on the public and cash out (OpenAI ipo, Musk folding xAI into SpaceX for that IPO) is very telling.

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fullshark commented on They lied to you. Building software is hard   blog.nordcraft.com/they-l... · Posted by u/xiaohanyu
contagiousflow · 8 days ago
What is the hard evidence?

Edit: What I mean by this is there may be some circumstantial evidence (less hiring for juniors, more AI companies getting VC funding). We currently have no _hard_ evidence that programming has had a substantial speed increase/deskilling from LLMs yet. Any actual __science__ on this has yet to show this. But please, if you have _hard_ evidence on this topic I would love to see it.

fullshark · 8 days ago
Closest I guess is hiring of juniors is down, but it's possibly just due to a post COVID pullback being credited to AI.

I definitely think a lot of junior tasks are being replaced with AI, and companies are deciding it's not worth filling junior roles at least temporarily as a result.

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fullshark commented on Amazon cuts 16k jobs   reuters.com/legal/litigat... · Posted by u/DGAP
glimshe · 13 days ago
I've been hearing about massive Amazon layoffs for a few years now. How come the company still exists? Are these layoffs followed by hiring at cheaper regions or different parts of the company? From my perspective as an occasional Amazon customer, things are pretty much unchanged.
fullshark · 13 days ago
One disturbing possibility is us laborers aren't as important we think we are.

u/fullshark

KarmaCake day8873February 4, 2016View Original