If the US government bans the import of RAM, it guarantees the immediate collapse of the US.
I don't think so, Lutnick just made sure the US wouldn't need to import DRAM with his newest threats.
Readit Newsfilloooo commented on Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts? fourplex.net/2026/01/29/i... · Posted by u/neelc
filloooo commented on Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts? fourplex.net/2026/01/29/i... · Posted by u/neelc
They will grow exponentially and catch the western market unawares in 10-15 years with a sudden flood of cheap, effective chips. Just like everything else China makes. Electric vehicles for example.
Sure, if they've got production grade EUV, but right now they don't even have production grade DUV.
I'm also sure they can go as far as 5nm like SMIC if they really wanted to, since it's strategic for China, but the cost would only be justified if the current cycle lasts long enough.
filloooo commented on Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts? fourplex.net/2026/01/29/i... · Posted by u/neelc
They're already producing 10nm DRAM with their current nodes, and they're working on producing 3d DRAM which may make node size somewhat moot.
Not 10nm, they are producing with 18.5nm and 17nm now, which technically already is in breach of US restrictions, the US government can blacklist them if they feel like it.
3D DRAM is no magic, it will only give them maybe 2 generations' breathing room if they got the required etching equipment figured out. But others will be doing 3D DRAM with EUV by then.
filloooo commented on Is the RAM shortage killing small VPS hosts? fourplex.net/2026/01/29/i... · Posted by u/neelc
I'd see Chinese RAM manufacturers like CXMT filling the void left in the market for consumer-grade RAM modules, I appreciate they face challenges (like lack of access to cutting edge EUV machines), but the RAM just needs to be fast enough and affordable enough for the average user for these companies to make significant inroads into the market that Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix are abandoning to chase the AI server market.
Their scale is simply too small to affect the market outside China, majority of their chips will be eaten up by HBM3 production with yet unknown yield rate.
They are forbidden to buy foreign equipment beyond their current process node, which is already obsolete, die size is 40% bigger than Samsung, not to mention lithography, the big 3 are using EUV while they are stuck with lobotomized DUV.
They can start making some decent money now, but vastly expanding capacity as is means enormous losses if the cycle went downward a few years later, that's how all previous makers went bankrupt.
They can squeeze out a bit more performance if they are ready to go beyond their current node using only domestic equipment and be blacklisted by the US government.
But the cap is there, unless they can make a working EUV machine in 5 years, they are doomed to be a minor player, if the current cycle even lasts that long.
Dead Comment
filloooo commented on In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels e360.yale.edu/digest/euro... · Posted by u/speckx
Russia recovering from this invasion they started is the naive take.
It's currently selling its resources at a steep discount and that is unlikely to change because its customers are only in it for the bargain they're getting.
Russia has always been selling it's oil and gas at a discount, that's why it had so much clout in the EU and CIS, nothing new, it's literally its geopolitical strategy since the Soviet Union.
All these talk of cutting off Russia won't last more than a year after the war, nobody refuses cheap energy, certainly not the cash strapped Europeans.
They'll probably be the world leader in critical metals and rare earth deposits if they invested more on prospecting and the ice melts.
filloooo commented on In Europe, wind and solar overtake fossil fuels e360.yale.edu/digest/euro... · Posted by u/speckx
Curious if this will eventually change China's calculus with regards to Russia. If Europe is a big customer for Chinese exports, and Russia is antagonizing, it seems like China would have an incentive to put pressure on Russia.
It already seems like Russia is positioned to be completely subservient to China in the future.
Your geopolitical views are so naive it's hard to take seriously.
EU is now an unwilling dumping ground for China, hostility and paranoia are growing by the day now that China is no longer a lucrative market itself and is pursuing its interests outside commerce, the cordial days are numbered.
Russia would never be subservient to China, once the war ends Russia would be back being a geopolitical player because of its vast natural resources, and they are already import substituting even Chinese products.
Russia can turn to the west to be a real western country whenever they see fit, the eternal fear for China.
This is why China is going as far as it can to accommodate Putin, even souring it's relations with the EU which isolated itself.
In this sense, it is China being "subservient" to Russia.
filloooo commented on Danish pension fund divesting US Treasuries reuters.com/business/dani... · Posted by u/mythical_39
It's symbolism. But it's important symbolism. Far more notable, I think, is Macron saying this morning that Europe needs more investment from China. Canada signing a deal with China to allow their cars to be sold in the country.
It's all a sliding slope until it reaches a breaking point and falls off like a cliff.
EDIT: to quote the Canadian PN earlier today:
“American hegemony in particular helped provide public goods, a stable financial system... this bargain no longer works. Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as a weapon. Tariffs as leverage ..."
The problem is that the EU and China are both looking for export markets to fund their economic growth, unless EU blows up it's welfare system and prints money like the US, the two are competitors.
But doing that would undermine Euro's credibility, as the EU is a loose union of countries with their distinct interests and politics, also member countries would compete on outspending each other as the Euro would have been essentially free money, a Euro debt crisis on turbocharge.
So, the EU can never print like the US. The EU and China will be rivals.
filloooo commented on Jensen: 'We've done our country a great disservice' by offshoring barchart.com/story/news/3... · Posted by u/alecco
I think people are ignoring the reciprocity in the global trading system.
People and news articles always talk about goods trade deficits for rich countries, but never their almost universal services trade surpluses, and the profit margins are vastly different.
For manufacturing, a large part of the revenue goes to materials costs, but for services, almost all of it are net incomes.
Yes you can bring back manufacturing jobs, but your services surpluses would also shrink, because when you don't open your market, countries were not obligated to let you reap profits there too.
The problem, however, is IO controller support has been dropped, many new CPUs don't even support DDR4 any more, especially mobile ones.