Readit NewsFor reference, point-in-time energy market rates usually swing by 2x-3x per day - meaning if you charged during the cheapest market rate and discharged during peak you'd net about 2.5x return on that cycle) - even more so during extreme temperature events like heat waves or cold freezes - those are ultimately what you're riding here in terms of validating the system's viability from a financial perspective. If you reduce that scale from hours to months, and if draw-down speed is slow (ie: you can't sustain 50MW of steam with 500,000 tons of dirt even at 600'C) then you're looking at even more complicated returns.
By my simple, assumption-laden math, a 50MW "system" (capable of providing up to 50MWe peak output and requiring a requisite (assuming since it's not mentioned in the article - that at 200'C a 1,000,000 ton dirt pile would only be able to sustain 40MW of thermal output/20MW of electrical output and 240MW thermal/120MW electrical output at 600'C) would be:
PV system (20MW system would require ~30 days of charging to provide 50MWe output for 1 day, ~1200MWhe), alternatively, per day, you could discharge 50MWe for ~48 minutes. 1,000,000tons of dirt storage at 600C should hold a theoretical ~28 days of 50MW electrical supply. (also worth noting, getting the dirt pile heat up to "steam" temp would likely eat up a considerable number of months charging, which is also capex)
$1,000,000 for dirt
$5,000,000 for balance of system (heater elements and wiring + ASME tubing - as an aside this seems very opportunistic for 20MW of heaters and tubing to supply 100MWt of steam)
$12,000,000 for Solar Panels ($0.60/w bulk)
$8,000,000 for Solar Supporting systems and installation (assuming heaters can run on DC power and no inverters are required and there is no grid tie, minimal permitting and simplified ground install)
$25,000,000 for a 50MW steam generator turbine and transformer yard, provisioning etc
land use: ~25 acres for dirt pile, ~100 acres for solar, 10 acres for steam/aux, call it $300,000 assuming US averages for cleared land.
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Assuming north-eastern US (~20% solar efficiency with subzero winters where you also have high off-solar peak demands)
If you only charge/discharge this twice per year you're looking at some pretty paltry economics - you could only really fill about 18k MWh of thermal energy during half of the year for a ~7,400MWhe discharge - $592,000 gross electricity revenue per discharge cycle at an opportunistic 7-day "peak" market rate of $80/mWh which is about $1,184,000/yr gross margin. If you did it once per day (40MWhe per day at peak average intra-day market rate -$68/mWh) you're looking at ~$2,720/day or $992,800/yr gross margin.
$51M capex would be difficult to justify margins of only $1.1M/yr, and that's before any operating costs of which there would be several.
If you just sold the same solar at market rate (~$36/MWhe) throughout the year you'd net out at $1,261,440. Capex would be ~$40M and grid-tie solar is very cost effective in OPEX.
Likewise, if you just connected the system to the grid and skipped solar altogether (powering the heaters with grid energy like battery storage would): 50MW in for 12 hours on cheap time-of-day rates (typically overnight ~$18-20/MWh) and sold for 5 hours during daily peak rates ($55) you'd cut your capex considerably without the solar component and you'd be able to net, even with round-trip energy efficiency around 41%, (600MWe in @ $11,400, 248MWe out @ $13,640 = $2,240/day ~$817,600/yr gross margin) for a capex of $31.3M.
So in the end, the best solution seems to be collocating this on an existing coal/gas plant, where the capex is already sunk in the transformers, grid interconnect, steam turbine, land and permits and you're only adding the earth battery - you could run the model with the above margins with a capex of only $6-7M, which is very viable and even more favorable than the economics of spinning up a new gas/coal plant.
The economics of battery energy storage (BES) systems are much better known (ROIs of <4 years in extreme-swing energy markets doing intra-day peak arbitrage is very possible) since your round-trip efficiency is closer to 91%. A 250MWh BES plant with 1-hour charge/discharge window would be~ $40M installed and could arb twice per day - at 2x (low end averages - buying at $26 and selling at $52 twice per day = $14,285 cost for $26,000 revenue) $11,715 margin per day, $4,275,975/yr on $41M capex is still better economics than all the above models except those where the steam generator and grid infrastructure is already sunk.
Imagine 1,000,000 Drake Landing installations per year in Canada, pre-heating with the excess electricity. In 30 years Canada would need zero fossil fuels for buildings.
which... is only 13% of their GHG emissions? Oh we're fucked. The planet's so fucked.
Heat loss inside of dirt is so incredibly slow it's hard to wrap your head around. One fact that I find helps is the fact that after an entire winter of extremely cold temperatures, you only need to go down 10 ft or so before you hit the average annual temperature. 4 months of winter buffered by 10 ft of ground!
Obviously there is incredible potential to this even if you just keep the energy as heat. The amount of electricity we use on heating and air conditioning is huge. If we could just create hot and cold piles or underground wells or something that we could tap into 4 months later when the temperature has changed, you would have completely solved heating and cooling.
Really excited by companies looking into this and wish them the best of luck!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_Landing_Solar_Community
We (USA) could have 80% of our Northern homes off fossil fuel and electric heat for less cost if we were a little more forward thinking and willing to work together.
But after nearly two decades they're decommissioning because the one-off components needed too much NRE to refurbish. If we all adopted this it'd be cheaper than what we pay today and zero greenhouse gas emissions. It'd finally make living in the temperate climates more climate-friendly than the warmer latitudes.
Where it really falls down is when you need to somehow get data OUT of the model to feed to other shapes. I would love to be able to specify a chamfer or fillet along a contact edge of two other shapes, but unless you know the exact contact shape, location, and size a priori you will have a tough time getting anything to line up. If you want to use a mesh or model as a negative, every model's zero coordinate needs to be just right or it will just be entirely misaligned.
I've also tried to spend some time performance optimizing for render/output. It is not cooperative at all. It will just soak CPU time for a minute at a time for not even a complex shape! As pseudosudoer said, it really goes off the rails.
But for functional connectors, adapters, and replicating parts, it's great to be able to leverage my software skills in 3D modeling!
Have you started using a recent nightly build with the Manifold backend and not the "stable" (aka obsolete) release?
I mean if you've just proven that my words and logic are actually unsound and incoherent how can I use that very logic with you? If you add to this that most people want to win an argument (when facing opposite point of view) then what's left to win but violence ?
Thanks for sharing the link though.