As you can imagine, there was a lot of wind whipping through offices. This is why the paperweight was invented -- and also why no one uses paperweights anymore.
"...this doesn’t provide the sort of certainty I know founders want in answering the question of when to raise. However, I think that knowing that there is no clean answer is important because it provides a framework for thinking through the relative advantages you have when thinking about a raise."
About a year ago, I had this inescapable feeling that I was spending my time poorly (not daily productivity but on a larger scale), and it was causing me a lot of anxiety. Then I read How Will You Measure Your Life? by Clayton Christensen. I walked away with a framework for finding out what I want to be productive towards, even though that thing -- whatever it is -- was no more clear to me. My anxiety disappeared, which is what I wanted all along!
Even ycombinator does not fall for that, they invest in thousands of companies and they have a lot less to lose than many employees.
How do you increase the value of an option? Increase the volatility. Continuing to minimize risk is not going to meaningfully change your lifestyle. Your call option already protects you on the downside, so you should try to blow it out on the upside, and take a risk.
You can also view your experience and skills (and the minimum salary it allows you to command in the market) as the same thing. After a certain point, try for something that will meaningfully change your lifestyle. Worst case, you can fall back to that floor salary.
Gott says you can be 95% confident that you're experiencing the thing in the middle 95% of its life. Let's say x is its life so far. If x is 2.5% of its eventual life (one extreme of the middle 95%), then the thing still has 39x to go. If you're at 97.5% (the other extreme), then the thing only has x/39 left. So the 95% confidence interval is between x/39 and 39x
Of course, 5% of the time you actually are experiencing something at the very beginning or very end of its life (outside the middle 95%), which is a unique thing. But that's why it's a confidence interval < 100% :)
I prefer this form of the principle a lot more than "the expected life is equal to 2X, always."
Side note: I took J. Richard Gott's class in college called The Universe. Maybe not the best use of a credit in hindsight, but we studied some really interesting things like this.
Take the simple case of 2 dimensions (each observation is plotted in 2D space) with possible values of 0-10. Let's say the extreme (far from average) space is within 5% of the border. The total extreme area is (10x10)-(9x9) = 19 (i.e. 19%). Now add a 3rd dimension. The extreme "volume" in 3d space is now (10x10x10)-(9x9x9) = 271 (i.e. 27%). You can see where this is trending. Add enough dimensions, and every observation is now "extreme." They become so far apart that each observation almost deserves its own cluster, and you lose any idea of similarity.
Back to this particular article: when you _add_ (or average) all of the dimensions -- like you do on an exam -- suddenly they are close again.
So people are using it as a store of value, rather than a medium of exchange? This would count against it being used just to buy drugs etc wouldn't it?