2. If people think they can get an abnormally high return, they will invest more than otherwise.
3. Whatever other money would've got invested would've gone wherever it could've gotten the highest returns, which is unlikely to have the same ratio as US AI investments - the big tech companies did share repurchases for a decade because they didn't have any more R&D to invest in (according to their shareholders).
So while it's unlikely the US would've had $0 investment if not for AI, it's probably even less likely we would've had just as much investment.
> 2. If people think they can get an abnormally high return, they will invest more than otherwise.
Sounds like a good argument for wealth taxes to limit this natural hoarding of wealth absent unreasonably good returns.
This sounds pedantic, but I think it's important to spell this out: this sort of stuff is only free if you consider what you're producing/exchanging for it to have 0 value.
If you consider what you're producing as valuable, you're giving it away to companies with an incentive to extract as much value from your thing as possible, with little regard towards your preferences.
If an idiot is convinced to trade his house for some magic beans, would you still be saying "the beans were free"?