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aserdf commented on A recession in America by 2024 looks likely   economist.com/leaders/202... · Posted by u/axiomdata316
gigel82 · 3 years ago
This always seems confusing to me. How are we not already in a recession? What specifically must happen to officially declare a recession?

My savings (including 401k) have gone down 24% since a year ago. Dinner at a restaurant / UberEats costs 30% - 50% more than a year ago. What else must happen to call it what it is?

aserdf · 3 years ago
the rule of thumb i've always seen is "consecutive quarters of negative economic growth" - in other words, negative change in GNP (have seen GDP used as well) after accounting for inflation.

since these indicators are always published after a time period has occurred and been tabulated, its possible we have crossed the threshold and are in a recession as we speak.

Q1 2022 is estimated at -1.5% right now, the final number will be released on 6/29. Meaning Q2 final data will be released sometime around the end of September, to make it an "official" recession (if Q2 ends up being negative).

aserdf commented on The quest to explore Colombia’s untouched jungle   bbc.com/future/article/20... · Posted by u/Petiver
newsclues · 3 years ago
It’s a global treasure and the Colombian people are largely powerless against their government so they rely on international support.
aserdf · 3 years ago
where does "global treasure" begin and "sovereign autonomy" end? who decides?
aserdf commented on NY Senate Bill S5474 proposing a universal single payer health plan for NYers   nysenate.gov/legislation/... · Posted by u/KoftaBob
astura · 3 years ago
Where does 60% come from?

I used this calculator - https://smartasset.com/taxes/income-taxes

It said if I (married) made $675,745/year in Manhattan I'd pay 39.59% of my income in taxes.

aserdf · 3 years ago
im adding marginal rates which is somewhat lazy. assuming 1,080,000 as a single earner (married changes the calculation of course):

  - 37% federal
  - 9.65% state
  - 3.876% city tax
  - 3% SS and medicare
  - ?? disability, unemployment, etc.
  - some additional % to cover single payer
so thats somewhere in the mid 50% range adding up. again, effective rates won't be that exact number except for ultra high earners. this also doesn't include property tax or sales tax (8.875%).

crocodile tears for million dollar earners and their tax bills of course, my point being that chasing away a small amount of residents can have an outsized effect on state revenue. (0.3% of returns account for 27% of revenue federally)

aserdf commented on NY Senate Bill S5474 proposing a universal single payer health plan for NYers   nysenate.gov/legislation/... · Posted by u/KoftaBob
aserdf · 3 years ago
it will be interesting to watch NY (and/or CA) put something like this in place and observe from afar. i strongly feel that states should be much more aggressive running policy experiments if their constituents desire them, and at the national level we all get some benefit of seeing how things turn out in real time.

all that said, assuming there is some tangible tax increase, NYC high earners are going to be knocking on the door of 60% combined rates (city, state, federal). tax avoidance and/or relocation services are going to be booming if so.

aserdf commented on Twitter set to accept Musk's $43B offer – sources   reuters.com/technology/ex... · Posted by u/thm
andrepd · 3 years ago
Really, what planet do these people live in? Musk has sued people he disagrees with, has sued whistleblowers, has sued a kid for making a twitter bot. They expect him to be some kind of free speech paragon? Fuck me...
aserdf · 3 years ago
> has sued a kid for making a twitter bot

the @elonjet account?

aserdf commented on Leaked Chats Show Lapsus$ Stole T-Mobile Source Code   krebsonsecurity.com/2022/... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
Scoundreller · 3 years ago
Been happening at t-mobile since like 2004

> Hollywood’s hacker war began on February 19, 2004 with a simple phone call. It happened at a T-Mobile store near Los Angeles. The caller told the salesperson he was from the T-Mobile headquarters in Washington. “We heard you’ve been having problems with your customer account tools?” The caller said. “No, we haven’t had any problems really,” the clerk replied, “just a couple slowdowns. That’s about it.”

> “Yes, that’s what is described here in the report,” the caller replied. “We’re going to have to look into this for a quick second.”

> “All right, what do you need?” Then he dutifully gave the caller the company’s internal web site for managing customer accounts —

https://www.wired.com/2015/11/the-hacking-of-hollywood/

aserdf · 3 years ago
tmobile is terrible and I loathe them but are the alternatives better?

is twilio viable for personal cell use?

aserdf commented on Ubiquiti vs. Krebs   courtlistener.com/docket/... · Posted by u/ghostoftiber
InTheArena · 3 years ago
You do realize that the entire "ubiquiti sucks" mood on HN started with the publications of these (factually inaccurate) articles from Krebs?

This whole thing pisses me off. A insider threatened a company with reputational damage and used a press guy to pull it up. HN picked it up and amplified it. Press guy never corrected the story, and the here we are - with people still railing on HN for a untrue story that the press guy enable that the extortionist planted.

aserdf · 3 years ago
a few weeks ago UI released an update to their protect surveillance line which subsequently prevented certain cameras from recording. an update which fixed this "bug" was released 3 days ago.

things like this contribute more to the mood you reference than the reporting from Krebs a year ago, IMO.

aserdf commented on Ubiquiti vs. Krebs   courtlistener.com/docket/... · Posted by u/ghostoftiber
DannyBee · 3 years ago
As a lawyer, i've read this entire filing and it seems like nonsense at a glance.

Krebs mentions the person was arrested. Ubiquiti claims first that he doesn't point out the person he sourced it from what arrested, and that he tries to mislead people by not saying repeatedly that the person is basically felon, and that being arrested makes him an invalid source of evidence, etc. They also claim he describes him as a current employee.

This is all nonsense AFAICT

1. Krebs mentions the person was arrested.

2. Krebs says "In March, a ubiqitui employee said X". That was accurate at the time (AFAIK, and ubiquiti cites no real evidence I see that Krebs should have known it was not true).

3. Krebs carefully points out the arrested person claims x and y (which is accurate).

4. The filing says Sharp made false claims, and spends a paragraph explaining them.

5. The filing says Krebs made them too, but ironically, for all of its bluster, doesn't cite where and when (that I can see), and which exact claims, they are claiming Krebs said that were false.

6. The filing cites no evidence that Krebs knew or should have known, in March, that the claims were false. They get into some weird arguments about their 10-q filing but it's hard to understand the point they are trying to make. It apperas they are trying to claim that krebs should have known they notified the public but i think that's kind of a silly argument - krebs is clearly talking about their users, and most users do not read 10-q's. Saying you notified the public because you put it in a 10-q is like saying you notified the public because you put it in a classified ad section. It's dumb wordplay.

7. The December blog post they say he "doubled down on" seems again, carefully written to say what Sharp claims, not what Krebs claims.

I could go on.

The whole thing is, IMHO, not written very well. It's very emotionally written for a pleading, and you will be hard pressed to find a judge who will get themselves worked up over that kind of writing. Instead they mostly roll their eyes and wish that someone gave them a clear and convincing pleading instead.

Put another way - if there is a case here, it isn't visible on this pleading. This feels like "throw a bunch of emotional stuff at a wall and hope it sticks", where you really want "here is an open and shut case of why this person defamed us"

aserdf · 3 years ago
question - does ubiquiti open themselves up to discovery and a lot of private info becoming public by filing this?
aserdf commented on Ubiquiti vs. Krebs   courtlistener.com/docket/... · Posted by u/ghostoftiber
GekkePrutser · 3 years ago
You have any links to those stories? Would be interesting.

Personally I hate the way they're going towards cloud accounts and dedicated management boxes. We used to be able to just install a docker to manage everything but the latest hardware ranges (eg their video offering) require dedicated management hardware. They're also pretty slow with uptake on new standards like WiFi 6 and now 6E.

The ideal selling point of ubiquiti was self-managed near-enterprise quality hardware with free self-hosted management and decent hardware prices.

I can't fully blame them because I know venture capital idealises subscription pricing and data mining right now but it won't work for me and it's annoying having to look for another option again when I'm invested in their ecosystem.

But anyway it would be interesting to read more about what's going on behind the scenes.

aserdf · 3 years ago
> ...venture capital idealises subscription pricing right now...

Pera owns ~91% of the company, it all comes from the top.

aserdf commented on Popular Patreon creators are being hit with Vimeo price hikes   theverge.com/2022/3/15/22... · Posted by u/usermi
xmodem · 3 years ago
This looks like a particularly egregious case of the toxic influence of VC money. Whey build a sustainable platform from day one when you can use the free money tap to attempt hypergrowth. Unfortunately, eventually it runs dry, and you have to justify your valuation based on whatever you did manage to build.
aserdf · 3 years ago
vimeo had their IPO last year (VMEO)

u/aserdf

KarmaCake day167October 8, 2021View Original