Readit NewsNo BS, no childish manipulation, just crude analysis of a bunch of people competing for power.
I remember back in 2012 InTrade had a market for the US Presidential election, the odds were wrong, stayed wrong for months, and actually got more wrong close to the event. You could get hourly liquidity in the tens of thousands almost throughout (I put on $20k in this market, I wasn't touching the sides, it was incredible).
Most of the people who talk a lot about prediction markets haven't worked in markets. Markets aren't magic. They work better with binary outcomes but they cannot be smarter than the people making bets in that market...and they aren't (I have most experience with financial markets, which just don't work well at all, but have quite a bit of experience with binary markets too...they have only become more accurate as our knowledge about the underlying events increased...if you look at binary markets where knowledge is limited in some way, markets are not efficient).
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The people were desperately poor in-laws. He was becoming cash poor but was still home equity rich and often commented that if he missed too many remittances he would likely be killed. Poisoning was rumored to be a common way to accelerate the inheritance process in his native country. When this is about to happen, the rumors start but everyone is afraid to do anything. I heard the rumor from a desperate family member but who then ended the conversation with "please don't say anything" and another implying they will take revenge. The in-laws came for a quick visit, he soon became so ill he ended up in the hospital and died, and then they quickly left. I have law enforcement buddies that mentioned poisoning can be extremely difficult to detect and prove and no one in his country could tell me names of poisons that were useful to his doctors. His doctors could not explain why he was so sick, and the coroner mentioned some health problems he found that could have killed him but implied that this conclusion was not strong.
There is even one case of a yc company where the cofounder went off and made a complete clone of the company a year later. Then an intern of that new company went off and made a third clone within a year. I just checked and all 3 are dominating the market and still running.
For my own story, I partly blame myself as the signs of this type of person are pretty obvious in retrospect. I was able to do much more with another company 6 years later while my cofounder ran an mvp I built with 10 customers I got with millions of funding right into the ground.
Good for this guy on finding out and acting quickly. It would have been so much worse with millions of dollars on the line. He has a good attitude, I hope he realizes he could start a similar company if need be or approach a competitor.
What are the signs?
My whole perception of academia and peer review changed that day.
Edit to elaborate: like many of our institutions, peer review is an effective system in many ways but was designed assuming good faith. Reviewers accept the author’s results on faith and largely just check to make sure you didn’t forget any obvious angles to cover and that the import of the work is worth flagging for the whole community to read. Since there’s no actual verification of results, it’s vulnerable to attack by dishonesty.
I was on several occasions warned-off from doing projects that pertained to this very subject and a couple others [examples: h. neanderthalensis relation to modern humans (at the time in the face of mtDNA), some other N. American immigration hypotheses (eg, that pleistocene peoples could make boats)].
Being told repeatedly that authoring research on a subject would ruin a future career eventually drove me out of academia, despite excelling in all other ways. Grad school was worse. It was not a great experience. I could go on at length to describe my perception of why this was/probably still is, but a short take is: the architecture of American social science legitimacy is so delicate that even counter thoughts from undergrads need to be put down.
Somewhat relieving to have all those subjects slowly come into light. Not bitter, but do have a longwinded eyeroll after all this time.
But yes, Pacific cultures visited the Americas pre-Euro contact. It is funny claim otherwise given even a pop-culture understanding of east Asian and Islander seafaring methods of the pre-European era.
Rrrff. End rant.
Why were they so opposed to this? You can't leave us hanging...
EDIT: ok and why is this at -1??
One of the more chilling posts on there[1] is the account of a user who randomly tried Heroin one day, got addicted within 2 weeks, overdosed and was clinically dead within a month, got revived and admitted, came clean, then posted an update to his story 7 years later.
I would personally suggest trying meditation first before trying opioids to alter consciousness and feel euphoric.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/MuseumOfReddit/comments/68srty/spon...
I agree it’s rude but banning a discord of 50k people just for that is highly sus