Readit NewsSteveHawk27 commented on Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU straitstimes.com/asia/eas... · Posted by u/therealcamino
Ouch, that is pretty disappointing numbers :(
Yeah. It's not that bad outside Wuhan, people who infected will get top level treatment, there will be best experts doing the diagnostics. But for Wuhan, where medical resources are extremely in short, we can only pray for the people there. Hope it's gonna be better.
SteveHawk27 commented on Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU straitstimes.com/asia/eas... · Posted by u/therealcamino
Just as an aside: "accuracy" is a pointless measure if you don't also know the ratio of true cases to false cases. The metrics you really want is the True/False Positive rates - without that you can't gauge the quality of a test like this.
Quite so.
The data I got is that among the people who really got the virus, positive rate of the test is only 30% - 50%. So false negative rate is as high as 50-70%.
The news report (in Chinese):
SteveHawk27 commented on Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU straitstimes.com/asia/eas... · Posted by u/therealcamino
I don’t understand what it is that the Chinese authorities are supposedly misreporting?
The mortality rate of 2% is consistent with the number of cases and deaths reported by other countries.
Is it that there are a large number of undiagnosed cases? That is kind of a given and is probably also the case in other countries.
The timespan between first case and until it gets reported to who and quarantines start is less than a month. To me that seems very fast (but I am just a layperson).
The main reason now is that the confirmation method of infection is still under debate and improvement. The current method is nucleic acid detection, which only has about 50% accuracy, so obviously a huge number of people out there cannot be diagnosed, and they won't be added to the official number.
And there are also rumors out there saying the lack of medical resources. Sick people couldn't get proper medical treatment and dying at home or somewhere. Because they didn't get diagnosed before they die, so the number won't be added to the official number. Don't know if it's true or how many people are dying there, but sure it's terrifying.
About misreporting, they did do it back in January, mainly because they want to control the panic as they always do, (and probably they didn't know it's gonna be this bad), but it should be much better now (I hope).
I'm wondering what -1 could mean in that context.