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MattGrommes commented on AI Bubble 2027   wheresyoured.at/ai-bubble... · Posted by u/speckx
bubblelicious · 2 days ago
Really hard to believe articles like this and even more hard to believe this is the hive mind of hacker news today.

Work for a major research lab. So much headroom, so much left on the table with every project, so many obvious directions to go to tackle major problems. These last 3 years have been chaotic sprints. Transfusion, better compressed latent representations, better curation signals, better synthetic data, more flywheel data, insane progress in these last 3 years that somehow just gets continually denigrated by this community.

There is hype and bullshit and stupid money and annoying influencers and hyperbolic executives, but “it’s a bubble” is absurd to me.

It would be colossally stupid for these companies to not pour the money they are pouring into infrastructure buildouts and R&D. They know it’s going to be a ton of waste, nobody in these articles are surprising anyone. These articles are just not very insightful. Only silver lining to reading the comments and these articles is the hope that all of you are investing optimally for your beliefs.

MattGrommes · a day ago
The way I've been thinking about this is that there is The Tech and The Business. The Tech is amazing and improving all the time at the core, then there are the apps being built to take advantage of the Tech, a lot of which are also amazing.

But The Business is the bubble part. Like all the companies during the first internet boom/bubble who did stuff like lay tons of fiber and raise tons of money for rickety business plans. Those companies went out of business but the fiber was still there and still useful. So I think you're right in that the Tech part is being shafted a little in the conversation because the Business part is so bubbly.

MattGrommes commented on Titles matter   joshcollinsworth.com/blog... · Posted by u/speckx
qmr · 2 days ago
"Titles matter"

If so can we kindly stop with the "software engineer" bullshit.

(Go ahead with the downvotes, I know this crowd loves nonsensical self aggrandizing "engineer" titles)

MattGrommes · 2 days ago
I wasn't going to downvote you until I got to the third sentence. No need to be a prick.
MattGrommes commented on Halt and Catch Fire Syllabus (2021)   bits.ashleyblewer.com/hal... · Posted by u/Kye
udev4096 · 4 days ago
It's so good and criminally underrated.

Edit: removed spoilers

MattGrommes · 4 days ago
Spoilers! If HN has spoiler text maybe use that or redact. The shock is part of the importance of that event I think.
MattGrommes commented on Say farewell to the AI bubble, and get ready for the crash   latimes.com/business/stor... · Posted by u/taimurkazmi
hasperdi · 8 days ago
Yes. Say there are 10000 thought leaders with different thinkings. There's a chance that at least one is right.
MattGrommes · 8 days ago
Yep. Then they're the lottery winner that gets to go on TV and write a book about it as if it was expertise that led to their prediction.
MattGrommes commented on The new geography of stolen goods   economist.com/interactive... · Posted by u/tlb
antonmks · 9 days ago
It is pretty strange that a country doesn't control what is going in and what is going out. In a small European country I'm most familiar with, everything is checked by customs officers. Dogs, x-rays, customs declarations, import taxes.
MattGrommes · 9 days ago
The incentives just don't seem to be there. This boggled my mind:

> For each container Mr Gibson holds up and searches, the police must pay the port a fee of £200.

MattGrommes commented on Rising young worker despair in the United States   nber.org/papers/w34071... · Posted by u/johntfella
nh23423fefe · 24 days ago
You can only learn from normally distributed data?
MattGrommes · 24 days ago
It's easy to over index on data when it's the bubble you're in. I know it happens to me on Reddit. Since I see so many different subs it makes it seem like you're getting a well-rounded view of things but that can be an illusion.
MattGrommes commented on AI Companion Piece   thezvi.substack.com/p/ai-... · Posted by u/jsnider3
luckylion · a month ago
> before they even try to do the work at getting human companionship

Why do they have to "do the work" to be deserving of companionship when most of us don't have to do anything because it comes natural to us and we can relatively easily regulate the amount of companionship we want.

I fail to see the bad thing. For some people it's either a chatbot (or a dog) or no interaction at all. Should people starve instead of eating at McDonald's because that's "not real food"?

MattGrommes · a month ago
Everyone deserves companionship, it's just that chatbots don't provide it. What I worry about is people who don't want to have conversations with people at work, or go do a hobby with other people, etc. and use a chatbot as an alternative when it's just a parrot pretending to be a person but providing no actual interaction. A chatbot has no needs, tells no embarrassing stories, requires no compromise, makes no promises, does no favors. That's why I said it was candy, not McDonalds. They provide no nutrition but sure taste good.

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KarmaCake day1633September 25, 2008
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