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InefficientRed commented on Rumor: Google Stadia May Be Getting Shut Down   gamerant.com/rumor-google... · Posted by u/achow
omega3 · 4 years ago
I've tried to find a flaw with this argument and admittedly it's pretty hard. As long as you accept to pay a above the market price for the game and you don't care about retaining ownership then it somehow makes sense.

I'm guessing this value proposition is what made it unsustainable for Google.

InefficientRed · 4 years ago
The need for GPUs during an unprecedented spike in demand for chip fab capacity couldn't have helped.

I think the basic model will eventually work out, though. The bandwidth is there. The compute has to be cheap enough that the biz model works by just taking the retailer's cut of the title sale + maybe a tad more. The tad more can come from one-time hardware sales and maybe better negotiated cuts of the sale from the studios. I would never ever have purchased a copy of any AAA title without Stadia and similar services. I think the same is true for almost all Stadia purchases.

But Google's failure here makes sense. It's a low margin game. google sucks at low margin games.

InefficientRed commented on Rumor: Google Stadia May Be Getting Shut Down   gamerant.com/rumor-google... · Posted by u/achow
lenova · 4 years ago
I'd like to be a counterpoint for the Stadia bashing here:

I'm not much of a gamer, but I've always been interested in playing Red Dead Redemption 2. However, I neither had a console nor a PC with a decent enough graphics card.

This spring, I picked up a Google TV with Chromecast, and realized I could pair any bluetooth device with it. I bought a cheapo PS4-like controller off of Amazon, saw that RDR2 was on sale on Stadia, and gave it a shot.

I have to say, the experience was quite pleasing. No need for an expensive/out-of-stock graphics card. No need for a dedicated console. If feels like a great solution for a casual gamer. Overall, I've been impressed with the experience, and haven't experienced any lag or game stutters. Heck, it even plays Cyberpunk smoothly!

Stadia definitely lacks in terms of marketing and game library, but I feel like it's a concept that works.

InefficientRed · 4 years ago
> casual gamer

Same.

I had a month off between jobs and used a week of my evenings off to play through red dead.

I don't particularly care about losing the license, because I just wanted to play the game through. Haven't touched it since then.

Stadia's ideal market wasn't "real gamers" -- those folks will buy rigs. Their ideal market was people like you and me, who don't have the time or interest to justify purchasing a gaming machine but still want to play through a AAA title or two every once in a while.

InefficientRed commented on Do data-driven companies win?   benn.substack.com/p/do-da... · Posted by u/dil8
itsoktocry · 4 years ago
>Being purely data-driven without good intuition and long-term bets (that can't be "proven" with data), and the product loses its soul.

This sounds like post-hoc, anti-intellectual rationalization.

How do you place long-term bets without a model to measure expectations versus outcomes? How do you know what good intuition is? There is a ton of research on "gut" calls that demonstrates it's random.

>But data is not a substitute for good judgment

Good judgement requires data.

InefficientRed · 4 years ago
> This sounds like post-hoc, anti-intellectual rationalization.

How is this anti-intellectual?

If you want, I can formalize as a game the problem of choosing business/product strategy in a competitive market with a continuous flow of imperfect information. I can then use ideas from controls to establish some upper bounds on what can be inferred from a continuous flow of information. I can then use that result to prove an impossibility result about the game. I can even tweak assumptions to get bounds on probability distributions which infer we'd be better off flipping a coin or whatever.

I'm not going to do the work, because intuition is almost always enough to identify these situations, but it's absolutely clear to me that results like this obviously exist and correspond to many real-world situations.

> Good judgement requires data.

It used to be that insisting on data-driven decision making was a hard pull. Now it's the opposite. Insisting on data where data cannot possibly provide enough signal to make a decision is the new form of anti-intellectualism. IMO.

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InefficientRed commented on The Best iPhone   notes.ghed.in/posts/the-b... · Posted by u/rpgbr
Bud · 4 years ago
Out of curiosity, why? USB-C offers no marked improvements over Lightning, none whatsoever, plus it's more fragile and the port size is significantly larger.
InefficientRed · 4 years ago
Travel. Travel. Travel.

Having everything USB-C just makes travel so much easier.

InefficientRed commented on US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)   bea.gov/news/2022/gross-d... · Posted by u/mrep
RspecMAuthortah · 4 years ago
This is part of the problem that the parent comment is referring to - putting all conservatives under the same umbrella. Tea party is different from most Trump voting working class. Conservatism in recent era has taken a very distinct shape and failure to understand this by elites have led to this very phenomenon the comment you replied to is referring to. How do you explain a non-negligible part of middle of America who voted for Obama voting for Trump?

As far as I am concerned, Tea Party acted in a capacity within the institution. The stuff we have seen under Trump including leaking secret military orders just to bring Trump down shows an absurd amount of collusion of institutional bureaucracy, media, corporate powers and security forces (such as FBI) which was unthinkable a decade ago and erodes the core values and credibilities of those institutions. For example, a decade ago FBI was a revered institution by conservatives who would go at length to support its over reaching acts and its the liberals who would question them. How did the table turn so bad that FBI is now actively being used as a force to silence opposition arresting anyone they like in the middle of night in their underwear while inviting media camera crews?

InefficientRed · 4 years ago
> How do you explain a non-negligible part of middle of America who voted for Obama voting for Trump?

The labor movement always had a socially reactionary underbelly. My hypothesis: it wasn't bad economic times that activated Obama-Trump voters. It was, rather, good economic times that triggered those voters to flip from labor-first to identity-first. The tension was always there. This is why the Tea Party fizzled and why Romney couldn't activate the switch -- reactionary blue collar folks knew intuitively that those movements weren't "on their side". But by 2016 a bombastic billionaire (also obviously not on their side) could be excused because the economy was good enough to at last put identity first.

I grew up in a suburb that flipped and my wife is from a mid-sized non-metro city that also flipped. Obama Trump voters are substantially all of our social circle.

A lot happened, but honestly, "youtube's algorithm and super effective conservative media" is probably the best explanation in over 1/2 of the roughly 3 dozen anecdotal cases. It's just pure identity.

Some blame Obama for outsourcing and the GFC, but that's mostly noise. First of all, the major factory that closed wasn't outsourced. It closed because the company was wildly mismanaged, and was not replaced with a foreign factory. Also, this happened five years before the GFC and Obama's election. Most of the folks in our circles remained employed throughout that GFC and all of them did very well from 2010 on-wards.

They're currently all doing very well financially; far better than the late 20s/early 30s city dwellers whose conversations I overhear in the coffee shop. Red America can afford single family homes with big yards, saves for retirement, and just generally lives a very comfortable life unimaginable in blue cities. With jobs in law enforcement, trucking, and in hospitals which don't require even an associate's degree. It's really the American dream -- graduate from high school, six weeks of training, and you're making enough to afford a house and kids and retirement within a couple years.

The resentment and utter hatred of liberals is visceral and real. Pretending it's economic is bullshit cover. Tell someone sharing a bedroom in NYC that their counterpart with less education, who works fewer hours, and lives in a SFH with a pool hates them because of the unfair economic spoils of the former.

Also, the economy was doing extremely well in 2016. Economics is now top-of-mind, but it didn't even come close to motivating them to vote for Trump in 2016. That was pure identity politics.

InefficientRed commented on US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)   bea.gov/news/2022/gross-d... · Posted by u/mrep
whatshisface · 4 years ago
So you argument essentially is that economic conditions dictate that within a few decade, there will be no restaurants in major cities.
InefficientRed · 4 years ago
> economic conditions dictate that within a few decade, there will be no restaurants in major cities.

No. Restaurants will continue to exist. Sit down in particular. In cases where you are paying for an experience; the economics will get worse, but they will continue to exist.

Fast food restaurants will even continue to exist. But the latter only with substantial automation. This has already happened at the front of the house -- kiosks and apps are the "happy path" ordering interfaces at every McD's in a major city. I'm merely projecting that the most cost-sensitive segment of the food services industry will push that automation into the kitchen, the checkout line, and a lot of the administrative work that happens at branches.

InefficientRed commented on US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)   bea.gov/news/2022/gross-d... · Posted by u/mrep
whatshisface · 4 years ago
Can three people working at McDonalds own a single family home in an American suburb?
InefficientRed · 4 years ago
Someone working low-paid hourly wage work can probably make $20K. A few siblings + their parents = 5 people = $100K. Stagger availability schedules so there's always someone home with the kids, and share vehicles.

Suburb of top-tier cities? No. Cheapest suburb of a midwestern city? Absolutely.

Again, not saying it's reasonable. Just that it's possible.

InefficientRed commented on US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)   bea.gov/news/2022/gross-d... · Posted by u/mrep
whatshisface · 4 years ago
If McDonalds can't afford to pay a living wage at the local cost of living, nobody will immigrate to work for them.
InefficientRed · 4 years ago
You can fit 3 generations in a single family home in an American suburb of a mid-sized city, and half the world's population would either (a) consider that a QoL improvement or at least (b) put up with it for a while to remit back home.

For all the doom and gloom in the USA, it's still an incredibly rich country.

To be clear: I'm not making a moral statement here. This is a statement of fact, not a statement of ethical preference.

u/InefficientRed

KarmaCake day647January 24, 2022View Original