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DAGdug commented on Israel launches strikes against Iran, Defense Minister says   cnn.com/2025/06/12/middle... · Posted by u/vinnyglennon
TiredOfLife · 9 months ago
Hopefully Iran stops their stupid proxy wars. Stops supplying Russia with drones and rockets. Stops executing thousands of people every year.
DAGdug · 9 months ago
Is there a “hopefully Israel ..” version of this or is all the skepticism targeted at Islamic countries, and not USA’s “greatest ally”?
DAGdug commented on Derivation and Intuition behind Poisson distribution   antaripasaha.notion.site/... · Posted by u/sebg
DAGdug · 10 months ago
What’s special about this treatment? It’s the 101 part of a 101 probability course.
DAGdug commented on New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer   waymo.com/blog/2025/05/wa... · Posted by u/prossercj
timewizard · 10 months ago
Random samples of the _same_ user base.

If the user base of "waymo riders" and "everyday drivers" does not match then you're not sampling what you think you are.

DAGdug · 10 months ago
Yeah, that’s fair, but is implicit since I’m arguing against the “sample size is inadequate” POV, not the “there are distributional biases in data” POV. There are a gazillion ways to adjust for these biases (ex. propensity score matching) going beyond just user-base but also including weather type, road type, location, time of day, day of week, traffic density, pedestrian density … that can be done easily with far less than the sample size waymo has. And I bet they do these adjustments.
DAGdug commented on New Study: Waymo is reducing serious crashes and making streets safer   waymo.com/blog/2025/05/wa... · Posted by u/prossercj
crazygringo · 10 months ago
> The US drives about 3.2 trillion miles per year. Waymo has 56.7 million miles over several years. Their percentage data is essentially useless.

No, that's not how statistics works.

The percentage data's accuracy depends mainly on the number of incidents recorded (and somewhat on the rate of incidents). But the percentage of the whole is completely irrelevant.

If you are basing something on 10 incidents but it's 50% of the total, it's still terrible accuracy.

Whereas if you are basing something on 100,000 incidents but it's only 0.1% of the total, it's still going to be quite accurate, assuming the incidents come from the same overall distribution.

DAGdug · 10 months ago
This! (Thank you for the comment). There’s a reason a 1000 random samples is adequate to reasonably estimate what’s common metrics in a population the size of USA or India (or infinitely large).
DAGdug commented on Only Teslas exempt from new auto tariffs thanks to 85% domestic content rule   fuelarc.com/cars/only-tes... · Posted by u/abduhl
socalgal2 · 10 months ago
I don't know if it's the same people but many of the comments here seem the opposite of the comments on EUs rules where people say they're targeting specific companies and comments say "no, the rules are such than all companies over a certain size are covered".

If the rule is 85% domestic than any company can do it.

I'm not saying the tariffs are good. Only that their point is to get things made domesticly

DAGdug · 10 months ago
They search space for criteria is practically limitless. They have and would absolutely fish for precisely the criteria benefiting Musk. This playbook has been applied well by the crony capitalist class in the 3rd world, and is always a moving target. Most players know that and will not chase the moving target, knowing that another set of rules will emerge that will create new hurdles protecting the crony capitalist. A few will, and get burned.

There are two reasons to believe this is applicable here: 1. Trump has a track record of quid pro quos (Adelson being a salient example). Musk is definitely seeking his pound of flesh 2. Lutnick urged people to buy Tesla (shocking and explicit favoritism) The view that this is just incentivizing local production is naive.

DAGdug commented on Leaked data reveals Israeli govt campaign to remove pro-Palestine posts on Meta   dropsitenews.com/p/leaked... · Posted by u/jbegley
mmooss · a year ago
> In what way is this a conspiracy theory or guilt by association? I don't think it is. (Except maybe the statement that he's an Israel citizen, though I think in this context it's a legit statement to make.)

Yes, the Israeli citizen comment. Obviously the comment is meant to criticize Rosen. Being an Israeli citizen is only a criticism by some conspiracy theory or guilt by association.

Currently the GGP comment says, "with a strong pro-Israel bias". I don't think it was there when I commented or I wouldn't have said what I said.

DAGdug · a year ago
“ I don't think it was there when I commented” Yes, it was there.
DAGdug commented on Leaked data reveals Israeli govt campaign to remove pro-Palestine posts on Meta   dropsitenews.com/p/leaked... · Posted by u/jbegley
edanm · a year ago
There are in general a lot of different companies doing things which some segment of the population considers immoral. Around HN, things having to do with privacy-violations are often frowned upon by a large percentage of the population here.

I don't always agree with these assessments, and I even less agree that this means you can point to people at various positions in these companies and call them "immoral".

Some people will consistently hold the belief that anyone working at Facebook, or Google, or whatever, are immoral. Most will inconsistently hold that belief - if they're arguing against someone, they'll use this kind of reasoning, but not in general. I'm mostly against this line of thinking in general.

Look - In some corners of HN, having worked with or served in the US military in any capacity is enough to make someone immoral. In some corners, working at a gambling company in any capacity makes you immoral. In some corners, being a doctor in any way related to performing abortions is immoral. In others, taking part in the capitalist system in any way is immoral. I doubt you or anyone agrees with all of these positions - so I think the general rule is that just being associated with something that some portion of people think is immoral is simply not enough to consider someone immoral.

(There are of course things that almost everyone considers immoral, and being associated with them could be enough, though even that barometer is sometimes wrong.)

DAGdug · a year ago
Yeah, there’s no objective and universal barometer for what is or isn’t immoral. I’m providing evidence (as opposed to pulling things out of thin air) for why it’s reasonable for many, or even most, people in the western world to find Guy Rosen immoral. It’s okay for individuals to not find this compelling.
DAGdug commented on Leaked data reveals Israeli govt campaign to remove pro-Palestine posts on Meta   dropsitenews.com/p/leaked... · Posted by u/jbegley
edanm · a year ago
In what way is this a conspiracy theory or guilt by association? I don't think it is. (Except maybe the statement that he's an Israel citizen, though I think in this context it's a legit statement to make.)

The parent post explicitly makes two separate statements - 1. that he's an Israeli citizen, and 2. that he has questionable morals. I don't necessarily agree with the second statement, but it's explicitly not saying he's immoral because he's Israeli (guilt by association).

DAGdug · a year ago
On 2, a few additional quotes from Wikipedia might help (they admittedly don’t directly implicate Guy Rosen, though you’d have to be extremely charitable in assuming he wasn’t party to these decisions):

“ Onavo, which allowed the company to read network traffic on a device prior to its being encrypted, thereby giving the company the ability "to measure detailed in-app activity" and to collect analytics on Snapchat app usage from devices on which Onavo was installed.[12] It did this by creating "fake digital certificates to impersonate trusted Snapchat, YouTube, and Amazon analytics servers to redirect and decrypt secure traffic from those apps for Facebook’s strategic analysis."[13] The program, which was named "Project Ghostbusters" in reference to Snapchat's ghost-shaped logo, was later expanded to include Amazon and YouTube”

“ On January 29, 2019, TechCrunch published a report detailing "Project Atlas"—an internal market research program employed by Facebook since 2016. It invited users between the ages of 13 and 35 to install the Facebook Research app—allegedly a rebranded version of Onavo Protect—on their device, to collect data on their app usage, web browsing history, web search history, location history, personal messages, photos, videos, emails, and Amazon order history. Participants received up to $20 per-month to participate in the program, which was promoted to teenagers via targeted advertising on Instagram and Snapchat. Facebook Research is administered by third-party beta testing services, including Applause and BetaBound, and requires users to install a Facebook root certificate on their phone. On iOS, this is prohibited by Apple's Enterprise Developer License Agreement, as the methods used are intended solely for use by a company's employees (for use cases such as internal software specific to their environment, and internal pre-release versions of apps)”

DAGdug commented on Leaked data reveals Israeli govt campaign to remove pro-Palestine posts on Meta   dropsitenews.com/p/leaked... · Posted by u/jbegley
DAGdug · a year ago
If everything that anyone cared to not see was censored, there’d be no content on the internet. Also, not smart to conflate (lack of) personalization with government-induced content moderation.

u/DAGdug

KarmaCake day137August 3, 2024View Original