Wheat is not the only problem, fertilizer prices are also disrupted and it might get worse.
Next to the deaths in Ukraine, we might thank Putin for 100 million plus deaths by famine within the 3 years.
Readit NewsAzsy commented on How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war acoup.blog/2022/03/03/col... · Posted by u/danso
Protracted wars (i.e. long slow wars via hit-and-run and guerilla warfare) have been very successful in past to topal the mighty powers by far weaker forces. However, in recent times, I feel they are becoming much less effective. The electronic surveylence and automated targetting makes such warfare much difficult. This is especially the case because, (1) the ruling power will eventually control all communication and remove any free speech, (2) they will constantly find and kill leaders through electronic means which are now amazingly effective.
A much better defensive route is probably mandatory militery training of all able citizens. Eventually, most professional armies are in the size of million at most and only 100,000 or so get deployed. If you have a million citizens with militery training, you are way harder to beat.
How is this non-sense the top comment?
I can't believe we get this level of ignorance on HN.
(1) the ruling power will eventually control all communication and remove any free speech.
You think people can trade child porn online because we allow them too? Anyone building a illegal operation ( i.e. a resistance ) knows that you can make anything carry information. Even IF they find what you are using to transmit it, that doesn't mean they can read whats in it.
(2) they will constantly find and kill leaders through electronic means which are now amazingly effective.
You are overestimating the Russian tech by a mile. And you are overestimating the ability to automate this process by another mile.
The Russians will eventually torture people for information on others. That is exactly how it happens in the past.
A guerilla will be spectacularly effective, even today. But it will be extremely bloody if the Russians decide that is okay.
Azsy commented on Russia Cannot Win The War blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblo... · Posted by u/optimalsolver
You may want to expand your thinking on this. I recommend: https://www.hoover.org/research/5-questions-stephen-kotkin
Well consider me expanded. But id argue my first reason isn't that far off from his take on Putin's goal.
Its a little strange whenever i find media from before the invasion talking about Putins position.
Azsy commented on It's now your fault they don't know about it rachelbythebay.com/w/2022... · Posted by u/zdw
Wow this was timely for me. Literally in multiple versions of the described interactions this morning. Two thoughts:
1. I don't think it's helpful to categorize people. Humans will be varying degrees of reasonable/unreasonable for a variety reasons and constantly in motion on that spectrum. It's more productive, for both selfish and altruistic reasons, to try to understand the why of their behavior.
2. Getting that understanding is hard. Especially over mediums that leave out non-verbal communication. But it's really worth your time to discern if there is any area where you've communicated poorly, so you can improve, AND it's really worth your time to recognize when a person has already made up their mind and not waste anymore effort trying to change it.
3. Even when a person has made up their mind beforehand, it might be worth your time to try to understand where they're coming from, depending on whether you are in a position to simply ignore them or not. If you can't ignore them, digging deeper can open up your options to get buy-in, or lead to workarounds. Of course, very relationship, and situation dependent.
I would simply start with: "You have to be more specific" and go from there.
And as a warning to your approach: don't take on the job to make dysfunctional people function for free. Either communicate that you are taking on a burden, or escalate to those whose job it is.
If you don't check the market, it's not a risk. It's just a poor decision.
I would counter that some of the best software was built to simply fix a problem the dev had.
Although you could argue the market had at least one interested party.
Azsy commented on Russia Cannot Win The War blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblo... · Posted by u/optimalsolver
>Nope. China and Russia share an oligarchic & mercantilistic ideology. They share a common adversary. They are economically interdependent. They conduct military exercises together. The countries support each other diplomatically. One even wonders if the West's preferred outcome is regime change in Moscow that weakens the Sino-Russian relationship.
This is something I don't quite understand.
After Crimea happened, nobody really did much. 70-80% of Crimea is Russian and it probably should have been their own republic after USSR fell. However, Ukraine just kind of got to keep that land? It was ultimately a problem. It's fine for Crimea to be self-determining.
NATO has never threatened Russia. A defensive alliance is never a threat. Obviously you only find it a threat if you have plans to invade like they do. Yet China and Russia feel threatened?
Even more unusually... it is NATO who feels threatened. They are worried China and allies are about to invade various entities. Taiwan is the first one, but Japan and South Korea are immediately next. India shortly after. Australia is not long after India. Obviously the USA will be involved in all of those.
Lets also look at the tally card. Russia is the one doing the invade thing. Not anyone else. What has been the response? Everyone united against Russia's aggression. Said, 'no thanks we're out, you can go play with yourself from now on' Where's the threat from us? We ultimately dont care about who is in power. We said, nope, we are closing our borders to you and your trade. We cant ethically or morally support Russia in their actions.
Mind you, who am I? I'm nobody and know nothing. China's own actions will reveal the truth in the near future.
If China truly believes in world peace and the end of cold war mentality. Building tall is far more intelligent than invading for land. It is china's ally right now who is breaking this. It is their ally whose actions are justifying the 'west' to be so defensive and feel threatened.
You know what the west wants? They want the sanctions to work. If such powerful sanctions can cripple a nuclear power's ability to wage war. The threat to the rest of the world is that the same will happen to you if you declare war. It would mean we are post-war. People can feel safe within their borders. Nobody is threatening anyone else anymore.
Sure militaries must still exist. Civil wars, insurgencies, etc are still going to exist. United Nations peacekeeping will always be a thing in the world.
china could lead the way. recognize taiwan as a country within a country. see quebec in canada. Then hold russia up to their diplomatic commitment to ukraine. dispell the rumours they are about to invade and demand immediate peace.
Just to lay out the Russian side.
There are two primary reasons we think the Russians did it.
Putin has gone full conspiracy theorist, nostalgic, delusions of grandeur, fear of dying. He has locked himself away with alternative history since the start of covid. If Russia wants to defend its borders, capturing Ukraine decrease the length of the borders significantly. In a 100 years who knows? NATO might try to expand.
Personally, i don't see how anybody under the age of 60 can be persuaded with this logic. But it does explain part of the failure so far. Putin beliefs it had to be far easier and cheaper than it turned out so far.
I think the economic reason to do it is far more plausible. Ukraine as a sovereign nation is an existential threat to Gas/Oil Russia. Since 2012 it has become clear that they hold enough gas and shale oil that it would break Russia's monopoly to the EU. That's could half their state budget, in a time the social security for the baby boom needs to be paid out.
I personally think they could have figured it out, but Putin is obsessed with gas and oil. To him they are the foundation of a Great Russia.
Azsy commented on Russia Cannot Win The War blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblo... · Posted by u/optimalsolver
This is so plainly obvious these days that I can't help but ask, what the Russian elites' goal even is from a "grand strategy" POV. Do they really hate the West so much that they're willing to destroy their country's long term strategic positioning for the sake of being so visibly anti-West? It's like they literally took all that early-2000s rhetoric about "rouge states which hate us for our freedom" at face value and thought delivering on it would be a great idea. It's hard to come to terms with such seemingly irrational behavior.
What Russian elites? Nobody in Russia holds enough power over Putin to change his mind. Since the start of COVID he has closed himself off and basically only talks to a club of ideologues who read and write alternative history.
Azsy commented on Russia Cannot Win The War blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblo... · Posted by u/optimalsolver
> How the hell is Russia and China allied at all? China is basically the one protecting Russia and allowing them to invade Ukraine.
Getting a European war going that draws US forces out of the Pacific is an obvious benefit if you want to invade Taiwan.
The US is more than capable of winning both and the Chinese know it.
In contrast to the Russians, the Chinese are completely dependent on international trade to keep people fed and the lights on.
The only real solution i see is to stop feeding the animals with stuff humans could eat and make a point of global solidarity. I say this as a avid meat eater, but I'm not holding my breath.