Ah, finally, will Tether get its day in the litigious sun? It's well known in cryptocurrency circles that their coin is not backed 1:1 to USD, similar to FTX, only that FTX crashed and this was found out the easy way. Cracking Tether will be much harder as they resist audits.
Here's a fascinating piece of history that sheds light on the Bitfinex/FTX/Tether shenanigans. Originally a Medium post that was removed at some point, here's an archived copy. It details how Bitfinex/Tether manipulated BTC to make serious $$.
I think the article also points to the origins of the FTX fraud: was Sam Bankman Fried involved in these BTC manipulations? Or inspired by it to create his own exchange?
TL:DR
"USDT was used to pump other traded pairs in order to avoid raising the price of BTC directly.
Once BTC was obtained from the pumps of these currencies, it was then sold immediately for USD, which ‘flooded’ the market and depressed the price of BTC."
> It's well known in cryptocurrency circles that their coin is not backed 1:1 to USD
Its well known in the legal space and has already been addressed by multiple US courts. They're not looking for that and this isn't controversial.
Those court cases already happened in 2018-2020. Tether just needed to update its language. A financial institution not backed 1:1 to USD isn't a problem in any part of the banking sector, they just need a disclaimer that says that, and Tether updated their's and moved on. Those court cases were also about specific periods of time and were very intelligent and more nuanced than the Tether discourse in crypto spaces. Tether has periodically had more assets available, and its only controversy was about whether those were USD and US Treasuries amongst other things.
This is a probe about violating AML laws and sanctions. Which would likely only involve specific addresses in crypto and some onramps. But otherwise crypto-crypto trading won't be a part of this.
> a probe about violating AML laws and sanctions. Which would likely only involve specific addresses in crypto and some onramps. But otherwise crypto-crypto trading won't be a part of this.
You think a dollar stablecoin won't be affected by being prohibited from touching dollars or the dollar financial system?
> Cracking Tether will be much harder as they resist audits
If Tether is sanctioned, they can't hold most dollar-denominated assets. Certainly none of the safe or liquid ones. Figuring out why it failed may take some digging. But causing it to fail is trivial.
> It's well known in cryptocurrency circles that their coin is not backed 1:1 to USD, similar to FTX, only that FTX crashed and this was found out the easy way.
Being speculated about is not the same as “known”. In fact every tether investigation seems to end up showing they are even over capitalize and hold more than 1:1!
My understanding of the audit situation was that the big accounting firms have refused to do it, presumably due to pressure from someone to not get involved.
It would be very simple for Tether to just hold $1 for each 1 Tether coin. They could invest their cash in safe assets like treasury bills that yield 4% or more. Meanwhile, they pay no interest in Tethers. So they get a 4% return for doing nothing at all.
As far as I know, there is no evidence that they are doing anything else. (There is some evidence that they did something else in the past, when interest rates were way lower.) But this hasn't stopped tons of people from speculating that they are.
Zeke Faux's Number Go Up (https://www.amazon.com/Number-Go-Up-Cryptos-Staggering/dp/05...) started as an investigation into Tether. He found some extremely suspect clues, but he wasn't able to crack it. Hopefully the feds are able to shed some light on it.
Tether was launched in 2014 [1]. It has over $120bn in outstanding liabilities against unknown assets [2]. When it fails, it will rival the fourth-largest 'bank' failure in U.S. history [3].
This has been a complete failure of U.S. regulatory bodies.
Exactly - a massive failure of regulatory bodies. I wonder why. It was similar with Madoff - there were people literally sending documents showing it's a fraud, and they did nothing for years.
I don't follow crypto lately, but it seems that Tether is printing money in high interest rate period.
But back before that, it was a complete joke - it was so apparent that they published only made up numbers that didn't really add up, pretended to get legitimate transfers of billions of $ on Sundays etc.
They were investigated once by a US A.G. and found out to have lied on the reserves in the past, but nothing really serious happened. They got a fine and were forced to published a pseudo balance sheet, which was a joke (still a bit better than FTX's Excel spreadsheet).
Free money and failure to regulate means scammers have never been more flush and able to talk with money. It's not a great space to be in, glad this administration placed Lina Kahn and others, without competition free markets can't operate efficiently. Both regulatory capture and natural monopolies all jam up the works. People don't remember it but one of the best things that ever happened to tech was the anti-trust suit brought against M$, anti-competitive behavior is such a drag on tech innovation, that combined with the incremental win for right to repair is all great progress.
> Exactly - a massive failure of regulatory bodies. I wonder why. It was similar with Madoff - there were people literally sending documents showing it's a fraud, and they did nothing for years.
For this to mean much (unfortunately), we have to know how many legitimate companies are being constantly reported as fraudulent. Similar to the FBI's flawless "they were on our radar" after every mass shooting event... if everyone is on the radar then it's not that informative that this person was too.
Madoff's returns were so egregious that they definitely should've been looked into despite any of this^ though. Arguably Tether should be looked into if only because of the systemic risk it (allegedly?) produces for the crypto universe more broadly. But then again... no one seems to eager to spend a bunch of investigative resources to bail out an economy of anti-government gamblers/degenerates.
Aren't you comparing the wrong values. Those banks that failed had more assets than tether has liabilities.
However, the actual difference between assets and liabilities was significantly less than 120bn for those banks. With Tether, I imagine the collapse will go from 1:1 redemptions day 1 to "oops all gone" day 2.
So I expect Tether to be the largest "bank" failure in US history by terms of loss of value.
> really is just a bank without any of the regulatory safeguards
A "bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits from the public and creates a demand deposit while simultaneously making loans" [1]. Tether doesn't offer demand deposits--withdrawals are subject to a minimum and fee [2]. It's thus not a bank, but a bank-like shadow bank [3].
"backed" is a somewhat unclear term. Given tether don't only hold cash their securities will have mark-to-market valuations. At purchase prices, in a legitimate operation, they should be "backed", but if they were forced to finance redemptions at losses from purchase price then I suppose might not be "backed".
However, they must have been sitting on so much interest up to now given where rates went recently that, provided they ran a fairly conservative operation, they should have plenty of reserves.
How bitcoin got huge was basically tether money printing. since it wasnt backed by anything, they just printed tether and bought bitcoin. a group did it behind the scenes, got massively wealthy.
I'm very curious to see how this investigation plays out, especially considering the debt situation here in the US. It appears (according to tether's audit reports) that tether went from about 64 billion in treasuries mid-2023 to about 92 billion mid-2024. That's 27 billion in demand for treasuries over that one year period which (if my math and research is correct) is about 3% of all treasury demand for roughly that time period.
It does appear that tether holds short-term maturity treasuries, and I don't know how that fits into the larger demand picture.
Readit News
I think the article also points to the origins of the FTX fraud: was Sam Bankman Fried involved in these BTC manipulations? Or inspired by it to create his own exchange?
https://web.archive.org/web/20180620111632/https://medium.co...
Once BTC was obtained from the pumps of these currencies, it was then sold immediately for USD, which ‘flooded’ the market and depressed the price of BTC."
Its well known in the legal space and has already been addressed by multiple US courts. They're not looking for that and this isn't controversial.
Those court cases already happened in 2018-2020. Tether just needed to update its language. A financial institution not backed 1:1 to USD isn't a problem in any part of the banking sector, they just need a disclaimer that says that, and Tether updated their's and moved on. Those court cases were also about specific periods of time and were very intelligent and more nuanced than the Tether discourse in crypto spaces. Tether has periodically had more assets available, and its only controversy was about whether those were USD and US Treasuries amongst other things.
This is a probe about violating AML laws and sanctions. Which would likely only involve specific addresses in crypto and some onramps. But otherwise crypto-crypto trading won't be a part of this.
You think a dollar stablecoin won't be affected by being prohibited from touching dollars or the dollar financial system?
Deleted Comment
If Tether is sanctioned, they can't hold most dollar-denominated assets. Certainly none of the safe or liquid ones. Figuring out why it failed may take some digging. But causing it to fail is trivial.
My people in the space now believe that they have made up the hole thanks to juicy interest rates (where Tether keeps all the yield).
Being speculated about is not the same as “known”. In fact every tether investigation seems to end up showing they are even over capitalize and hold more than 1:1!
My understanding of the audit situation was that the big accounting firms have refused to do it, presumably due to pressure from someone to not get involved.
The one adversarial investigation I know of found the opposite [1].
> presumably due to pressure from someone to not get involved
Not how audit works.
[1] https://ag.ny.gov/sites/default/files/2021.02.17_-_settlemen...
As far as I know, there is no evidence that they are doing anything else. (There is some evidence that they did something else in the past, when interest rates were way lower.) But this hasn't stopped tons of people from speculating that they are.
This has been a complete failure of U.S. regulatory bodies.
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tether-usdt.asp
[2] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_bank_failures_...
I don't follow crypto lately, but it seems that Tether is printing money in high interest rate period.
But back before that, it was a complete joke - it was so apparent that they published only made up numbers that didn't really add up, pretended to get legitimate transfers of billions of $ on Sundays etc.
They were investigated once by a US A.G. and found out to have lied on the reserves in the past, but nothing really serious happened. They got a fine and were forced to published a pseudo balance sheet, which was a joke (still a bit better than FTX's Excel spreadsheet).
For this to mean much (unfortunately), we have to know how many legitimate companies are being constantly reported as fraudulent. Similar to the FBI's flawless "they were on our radar" after every mass shooting event... if everyone is on the radar then it's not that informative that this person was too.
Madoff's returns were so egregious that they definitely should've been looked into despite any of this^ though. Arguably Tether should be looked into if only because of the systemic risk it (allegedly?) produces for the crypto universe more broadly. But then again... no one seems to eager to spend a bunch of investigative resources to bail out an economy of anti-government gamblers/degenerates.
However, the actual difference between assets and liabilities was significantly less than 120bn for those banks. With Tether, I imagine the collapse will go from 1:1 redemptions day 1 to "oops all gone" day 2.
So I expect Tether to be the largest "bank" failure in US history by terms of loss of value.
A "bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits from the public and creates a demand deposit while simultaneously making loans" [1]. Tether doesn't offer demand deposits--withdrawals are subject to a minimum and fee [2]. It's thus not a bank, but a bank-like shadow bank [3].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank
[2] https://tether.to/en/redeem-tethers-to-fiat-currency/
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadow_banking_system
Historically, or purely in the context of this article, assuming it's true?
However, they must have been sitting on so much interest up to now given where rates went recently that, provided they ran a fairly conservative operation, they should have plenty of reserves.
"Oh, you're banking $700M PER DAY in deposits for Tether? Sounds legit to me!"
It does appear that tether holds short-term maturity treasuries, and I don't know how that fits into the larger demand picture.
https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/63oJePOHqIvrcnXWMP...
https://assets.ctfassets.net/vyse88cgwfbl/6h4YWqZOXbwtBaPtYg...
https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-cent...