I don't think this was intentional as real attack on Poland as that would take course which will not end up good either for Russia or for rest of the world. I see this as accident, until more information comes. And given similar accidents before, like India-Pakistan missile incident from this year [1] or crash of a drone in Zagreb [2] in March of this year - this will yield nothing.
Edit: Another data point re accident: MH17 [3], Iran Air Flight 655 [4]. Both of those still yielded nothing.
One missile just crossing over the border is an accident. It's kind of hard to see how two missiles could cross the border by more than a few miles unintentionally. I mean, we are talking about Russian cruise missiles, so maybe their INUs are that bad, but still...
"Russia has intentionally conducted an act of war (which did no serious damage nor improved Russia's strategic position) on an enemy that it cannot possibly defeat, for unknown reasons" doesn't really stand up to Occam's Razor, when "human error" is also on the menu.
We _are_ talking about russian missiles, thats why no one is surprised they errored and are convinced this was an accident. The real question tho is why did our defence systems fail to intercept them?
Can be one Russian X-101 and Ukrainian S300 which intercepted it. Could also explain how it landed on Polish territory: it is possible that interception only damaged Russian missile but took it off the course.
Targeting error is always a possibility. Somebody read the map wrong and chose the wrong target without realizing it.
No matter how much technology advances, warfare still involves incompetent idiots making choices under pressure based on partial and incorrect information. Sometimes those choices go wrong in a catastrophic way.
They're not missiles they are rockets - unguided munitions. It's easily understandable how two out of one-hundred plus rockets misses its target. In fact it's more understandable than all one-hundred hitting their targets dead on.
I agree, it's hard to tell if it was intentional. However, it might have been designed to be that way, as a test of the resolve of the West (US, really). It's just impossible to tell, which means we have to respond in a way that will stop Putin from pushing into Poland and other places, yet not pushing too hard on him that WW3 starts.
Haven't we already been doing this? Here's a better idea - how about the US and everyone else GTFO of Ukraine and stop meddling in Eastern Europe? Biden and Kerry and the US have been doing it since the fall of the Berlin Wall and now we risk WWIII because these greedy politicians can't get enough kick backs from the US military industrial complex.
So far the way the war is going I don't think we desperately need to respond to these missiles, and it may be a gambit to try to draw NATO more directly into the war for Russian domestic political consumption.
Putin is losing right now, just continue to let him keep losing. That is going to be the course of action right now which is most damaging to him.
That's very likely. But of course, an accidental attack is still an attack. Will Russia stop attacking Poland and Ukraine? Doubtful, unless NATO makes it stop.
Otherwise we can wait for the next "accident" where Russia fires missiles into NATO countries and murders people. All the while they're committing war crimes in Ukraine, day by day, for the world to see.
These countries have been committing war crimes against one another for nine years now throughout this history of this proxy war.
Why should we start caring now or sacrifice global stability because of two errant rockets? Your fear-based rhetoric about other NATO countries being targeted because of two errant rockets (rockets are unguided munitions btw, not cruise missiles) is ridiculous.
Let's all hope it yields nothing - the alternative risks article five and global peace. While I'm sure the war hawks in DC and in the white house / capitol building would love to start another world war, I'm not so eager to be thrust into one. I'm sure that sentiment is the same for most of the readers of HN.
It was an accident like the JDAM bombs that accidentally hit the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999 and the Turkish F16 dawning a Russian Su-24 near the Syria-Turkish border in 2015.
What this will only accomplish is another military aid package to Ukraine and who knows what it will be this time? Longer range ATACMS and MLRS rockets for HIMARS? Also THAAD and Patriot deployments to Poland.
NATO could make the case that Russia needs to stop shooting missiles since they cannot aim.
Alternatively, NATO could say that they can shoot down any Russian missiles since Russia cannot be trusted and has bad aim.
It's really suspicious that two missiles hit Poland. If it were one missile, it could be due to some kind of component failure that caused the missile to go off course.
Two missiles are not likely to both fail, so that suggests Poland was targeted on purpose.
Cruise missiles and rockets are not the same. One is an unguided munition and the other is not.
Nothing suggests Poland was targeted on purpose besides your fear-based rhetoric / war mongering.
"Russia cannot be trusted and has bad aim".
This war has turned everyone into a bunch of Russophobes and has really helped to shine a light on how many racist-ass people live in Eastern Europe. Not really surprising though since they hero worship this guy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera - in Ukraine.
This is right by the border and not close to any "valuable" infrastructure. Clearly the lives of two people and their property are valuable! But wartime calculus has a heavy discount factor...
How do you know it wasn't a Ukrainian AA missile? Someone posted a telegram photo suggesting it was a S300 AA missile [1]
What scares me is that everyone is speculating and jumping to conclusions without hard facts. Behaving this way can easily escalate some trivial situation into something more serious.
Sky News in UK is quoting 'security experts' commenting on photos showing wreckage that looks like from S-300 system. Only Ukraine is operating these within range of the border so entirely plausible this was an interception of a missile aimed at a target near border. In this context the comments from some eastern European and Ukraine itself are irresponsible. At least Poland and other NATO partners are urging caution.
It is still security threat for NATO member. No meter what landed on Poland it was consequence of Russian shelling in proximity of Ukrainian-Polish border.
Not US sources. It seem to comes from the Radio ZET post this points to
"Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine."
ZET seems a legitimate source, but it's still a single journalist and some twitter posts.
At the time of me posting comment, the article opened with "A senior U.S. intelligence official says Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people."
Readit News
Edit: Another data point re accident: MH17 [3], Iran Air Flight 655 [4]. Both of those still yielded nothing.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_mi...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
No matter how much technology advances, warfare still involves incompetent idiots making choices under pressure based on partial and incorrect information. Sometimes those choices go wrong in a catastrophic way.
Given the state of the Russian armed forces, it's not entirely surprising their missile accuracy is in the tens of miles.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IwqmezeSuQ
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Putin is losing right now, just continue to let him keep losing. That is going to be the course of action right now which is most damaging to him.
Otherwise we can wait for the next "accident" where Russia fires missiles into NATO countries and murders people. All the while they're committing war crimes in Ukraine, day by day, for the world to see.
Why should we start caring now or sacrifice global stability because of two errant rockets? Your fear-based rhetoric about other NATO countries being targeted because of two errant rockets (rockets are unguided munitions btw, not cruise missiles) is ridiculous.
Stop being a war monger.
What this will only accomplish is another military aid package to Ukraine and who knows what it will be this time? Longer range ATACMS and MLRS rockets for HIMARS? Also THAAD and Patriot deployments to Poland.
Alternatively, NATO could say that they can shoot down any Russian missiles since Russia cannot be trusted and has bad aim.
It's really suspicious that two missiles hit Poland. If it were one missile, it could be due to some kind of component failure that caused the missile to go off course.
Two missiles are not likely to both fail, so that suggests Poland was targeted on purpose.
Nothing suggests Poland was targeted on purpose besides your fear-based rhetoric / war mongering.
"Russia cannot be trusted and has bad aim".
This war has turned everyone into a bunch of Russophobes and has really helped to shine a light on how many racist-ass people live in Eastern Europe. Not really surprising though since they hero worship this guy - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera - in Ukraine.
>My sources in the services say that what hit Przewowo is most likely the remains of a rocket shot down by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/mariuszgierszew/status/15925955074275450...
What scares me is that everyone is speculating and jumping to conclusions without hard facts. Behaving this way can easily escalate some trivial situation into something more serious.
[1]: https://t.me/intelslava/41141
Maybe Putin is testing the waters to see how NATO will respond?
What better way to see the limits of missile interception, how leaders will react, how unified or divided NATO members are, etc.
1. Confirmation of armed incident taking place.
2. Government considers triggering art.4 after consulting US.
3. Some parts of Armed Forces are on high alert.
No further details."
https://twitter.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/15926278761214320...
"Polish Govt spox:
- investigating reasons behind the explosion
- two people dead
- military readiness level raised in response
- President Duda spoke with Stoltenberg tonight
- Poland considering whether to call for NATO discussions under Article 4
- Cabinet meeting to follow"
https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1592626871367520257
"Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine."
ZET seems a legitimate source, but it's still a single journalist and some twitter posts.
More coverage at
https://wiadomosci.radiozet.pl/Polska/przewodow-rakiety-spad...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/explosion-kills-two-pol...