The older I get, the more I have to rely on my gut if I actually want to get any decisions made because I can't remember why I know something, or sometimes what I know that makes the decision correct.
I don't mean that I'm being reckless (I'm reckless sometimes). I trust my gut to have some actual basis in knowledge. Another thing that I've learned to do as I get older is to freely say "I don't know" if I don't have a "gut" idea of what a decision should be. I will happily defer to someone else who convinces me that they do know in those situations (which is another gut call really, of whether to trust someone else).
In any case, I am a strong believer in making a decision and following through with it (within reason), rather than stagnating forever in indecision and research. Some research yes, if necessary, but at some point you have to pick a direction and go.
Edit to directly address the need for data:
I'm firmly behind data-based decision making. Two arguments come to mind against "most gut decisions are wrong":
1. When I make a gut decision, it's based on data that I've collected at some point.
2. Pertinent to my first point, but also to data collected more consciously in preparation for a decision. Data is also wrong sometimes and misleading often.
I go back to my idea that making a decision is better than not making a decision, usually. The next step is objectively monitoring the consequences and bailing out if you were wrong. Denial is much worse than making that wrong decision to begin with.
I suffer from some pretty intense Analysis Paralysis at times. I've found that there are so many tradeoffs in each and every decision in software that you've just gotta pick what feels right and get moving. I guess that's the same as listening to my gut?
I've yet to avoid any/all hurdles as a result, but I've yet to reach one I couldn't figure out how to get over either.
There is no perfect decision and the line between "ok" and "great" decisions is verrrrrrry fine.
> I suffer from some pretty intense Analysis Paralysis at times.
I used to be like that when I was younger. Not only for specific things regarding software, but for many things in life. Eventually I've developed my own "mantra" which is something like "any-thing is better than no-thing".
Nowadays it still happens to me some of the times, mostly when I have too many things to do at the same time and don't know where to turn to. One example: from 19:00 to 19:30 every day I have to set the table, do the dinner, prepare the soup and fruit for my small kid and wash some dishes, as my wife baths the kid. Some days it is too much at the same time, and I start to feel paralyzed, like where do I turn to? My current solution is just to do anything. Anything at all. And as soon as I do anything, I start to see things moving, and instantly, that paralyzing feel goes away!
> In any case, I am a strong believer in making a decision and following through with it (within reason), rather than stagnating forever in indecision and research. Some research yes, if necessary, but at some point you have to pick a direction and go.
I am the type that struggles with the indecisive behavior and had to pay serious opportunity cost because of this type of behavior. I struggle with indecisiveness even with seemingly small decisions such as picking a restaurant for dinner.
Any pointers on behavioral trainings to change that? In this context, even if I have (and I typically do) have also "gut feeling" about something, I struggle to follow through.
I'm afraid that I don't, and in fact that despite my belief in the concept (decisiveness!) I definitely struggle to adhere to it sometimes as well. Your example (where to go for dinner) puts my in mind of my wife, who does much the same and I get to watch her agonize and stress over tiny decisions that in my mind have no consequence whatsoever one way or another.
In fact, I do think that being married to her forces decisiveness from me, in many cases. But for others, I just don't empathize very much, even with her. I'm quick to point out that it's a tiny difference that won't make any difference in the long run, but it doesn't seem to help her at all (I'm not insensitive as this may sound, I really am trying to help and she knows that).
That's the only thing I can say though - maybe analyze why you think this is an important decision, worth your time of consideration. If you can't think of a good enough reason, then say to yourself, "it doesn't matter", and flip a coin. Maybe literally, if that helps.
If I may, I'd recommend first try to understand why you can't take a decision, is being afraid of making a mistake for example or is there something else?
Then, you can start practicing with mundane decisions like picking a different flavor of ice cream instead of your usual one, try to identify decision like that example that have no consequences and don't overthink it, just decide. The only way to change this is to retrain yourself to break the association.
I view it as the vector of my past experiences and knowledge. Though, I do have to be careful not to conflate gut with excess of any emotion ex. greed, hope etc. I am also carefully aware of when the "rules of the game" might be changing but that might be the "data" you are describing.
I do agree with the reasoning here. For a few weeks / months, I have been trying to trust my first instinct / intuition more and more, sweeping away any second guessing when it comes in. So far, it seems to be working great and frees my mind so much it’s refreshing!
Learning from past mistakes, past times you were fooled, times you were right, pulling from a vast and diverse set of knowledge that only makes sense in hidsight.
I suppose that following instincts offers a much much discounted cost on your psyche for "getting it wrong".
Let's say I have a choice between A and B. My instinct is telling me A, and I have a rational reasoning for B.
Assuming that the strength of the instinct (0 - 100, "complete indifference" to "every cell if my body is screaming for it") is comparable to the confidence I have in my reasoning (0 - 100, "complete guess" to "I have factual proof and competence that tells me this is the answer"), then if I get it wrong because I went with A I'll be much more prone to accept it as "I'm ok with this mistake" then if I went with B and go it wrong.
This, to me, is true at all levels of intensity. If I don't have strong feelings one way or another I'll follow instinct over reason and assume that my subconscious knows something I don't. If my rational confidence and instincts are high (assuming I dont have time to analyze the conflict), if I get it wrong "rationally" I'll kick myself more than if I got it wrong "irrationally".
So there is a real advantage in mental health with going with guts.
In my experience lot of people operate on 'autopilot', and I find it incredibly sad. They have all of humanity's knowledge accessible to them in their hands through phones, I wish they would sometimes stop to search and read and learn and expand their internal knowledge bases. I wish people were more curious and open-minded.
I've personally always derived a lot of joy from constantly learning and improving myself and it's baffling to me how little growth and positive change I see in many of the people around me over the years.
Yeah, but whipping out your phone could be deemed autopilot, in fact, I would say it's a defining feature of modern implementation of autopilot.
I kinda feel like what you're getting at is that your iteration of autopilot is better than others. In the abstract most people are pulling information out of the web and ostensibly using it to construct a model. The difference here is priorities and to some extent the framework of moral schematics.
I would expect you're under the impression that what you're doing is productive, and productivity is good. That's not necessarily the case though - that's just a lens that post-Christian western society has adopted for scrutinizing individuals, and frankly it's a little harmful.
I don't disagree with what you're saying, I feel you misunderstand me. I'm not talking about productivity, I'm talking about stagnation in life (in terms of not 'growing' as a person).
My point is that it's easier than ever before to improve yourself through readily accessible resources. I wish more people would.
It can be through learning about different people's experiences, considering alternative opinions, thinking about views that oppose your own, studying social sciences, having conversations, and so on.
School/Uni burns people out on learning stuff. They finish that then want to do other things, which may not involve learning something new.
But also plenty of people have anxieties about their livelihood these days thanks to wages, the economy, and the state of the world. It might be baffling because you lack perspective on that front by not having a shit life!
Every day on Reddit, I see people asking "Should I learn X?" And it's so fucking stupid. Why ask? Try to learn X. If it's boring, stop. There are no grades. There is no penalty for dropping out.
There are legitimate questions to ask, "Is book Y worth the money?" "If I learn Z, will it increase my job prospects?" But "should I learn X?" is a bad question, and only something as awful as years mandatory schooling can make someone think it is a good one.
Unless you were raised in an environment very different than the world you are in today. e.g. your youth was in a hostile environment and now you are in a safe environment. Or your youth was in a safe environment and now you are in a hostile environment. In that case, I am not sure how you unfuck yourself. The former case seems to lead to the most difficult to correct instincts.
It's easier to become harder and more mortified than to become softer, more pliable, and more trusting.
Take the past centuries and try to find 80 years where trust in the powers that be would have been optimal, contrasted against endless skepticism, cynicism and general distrust. And there's no reason to think this trend is changing; a strong argument could made that it's trending worse.
The point I make with this is that if we view things through the lens of being 'hard' vs being 'soft', then the worst case outcome of being 'hard' is relatively miniscule - looking a genuine gift horse in the mouth may cost one a 'gift.' By contrast the consequences of being 'soft' can be extreme. To run with the same analogy - happily opening your gates to that beautiful wooden horse from Troy. What a gift!
The reason I use 80 years as the metric is because that is, more or less, the time before we get to discover the answer to that final question. And you never know whether you're in a good time, or a bad time. The bad guys don't simply announce "Hey guys. I'm evil. Let's go do evil things to those other guys under farcical rationale, because it sounds like a good thing to do. Who's with me!?" So all one can do is optimize for your entire life, or whatever remains of it.
You should always listen and observe what your instincts are telling you.
Sometimes, they will lead you astray, but sometimes they give you valuable advice on what to do. Learning what scenarios have a high/low success rate is useful. Just my 2 cents.
For example, I have good success rate just feeling around numbers and seeing what feels right when doing tasks like, "guess how many jelly beans in the jar". I have a very poor success rate in deciding whom to date.
A strategy that I’ve seen turn around someone’s relationship woes is asking yourself “Would I hire this person?” Not thinking about skills, particularly, but more about their attitude and approach to things. I was sceptical of the idea but, looking back, it changed the rules of thumb the person was using to assess potential partners. In their case, it worked really well.
My greatest success as a taxi driver was learning to follow my intuition. One passenger led to the next, until I'd met all the people I was supposed to meet for that day.
At the start of a shift I'd ask myself where to go. When I was between passengers, driving around thinking about where to find my next fare, I'd do a "left, right or straight" as I approached intersections. Sometimes it was definite response, sometimes I got the impression that it didn't matter.
One of the passengers I've told you all about ... I was next to her apartment when she called for her taxi. She's doing much better now, because I took some time to talk to her.
Intuition helps keep us alive, and helps put is in the right place at the right time so we can meet the people we're supposed to meet to move us along on whatever we're working on.
This is a false dichotomy. One can both take data into account and go with their gut after having evaluated such data. But data, by it's very nature, is rearward looking. It is really dangerous to become a solely data driven person/organization.
I listened to the Vox Conversations podcast and I feel somewhat skeptical about the conclusions regarding happiness. The author of the book says that he trusts a major study on the subject because it sampled what people were doing at the precise moment when queried and how happy they felt at that point in time. He then concludes that we are most miserable when e.g. studying and working and happiest when getting laid. The problem I see with this is that if they, for instance, would've asked a person just after doing heroin for the first time, how happy they were in that precise moment it would maybe be off the chart. Saying we should avoid stuff that brings long term fulfillment and satisfaction to remember having done seems like a trap. We're only our present selves for an instance, but our future selves for years to come.
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I don't mean that I'm being reckless (I'm reckless sometimes). I trust my gut to have some actual basis in knowledge. Another thing that I've learned to do as I get older is to freely say "I don't know" if I don't have a "gut" idea of what a decision should be. I will happily defer to someone else who convinces me that they do know in those situations (which is another gut call really, of whether to trust someone else).
In any case, I am a strong believer in making a decision and following through with it (within reason), rather than stagnating forever in indecision and research. Some research yes, if necessary, but at some point you have to pick a direction and go.
Edit to directly address the need for data: I'm firmly behind data-based decision making. Two arguments come to mind against "most gut decisions are wrong":
1. When I make a gut decision, it's based on data that I've collected at some point.
2. Pertinent to my first point, but also to data collected more consciously in preparation for a decision. Data is also wrong sometimes and misleading often.
I go back to my idea that making a decision is better than not making a decision, usually. The next step is objectively monitoring the consequences and bailing out if you were wrong. Denial is much worse than making that wrong decision to begin with.
At some point you just need to decide.
The majority of things in life aren't worth taking to much effort to optimize your decision.
Your gut is a great heuristic, but the trick is to know when you should put in a little more effort than just trusting your gut.
Sometimes once you start moving in one direction, any direction at all, you gain more perspective on what the right decision is.
So it's important to maintain flexibility and be able to update your decisions.
I've yet to avoid any/all hurdles as a result, but I've yet to reach one I couldn't figure out how to get over either.
There is no perfect decision and the line between "ok" and "great" decisions is verrrrrrry fine.
I used to be like that when I was younger. Not only for specific things regarding software, but for many things in life. Eventually I've developed my own "mantra" which is something like "any-thing is better than no-thing".
Nowadays it still happens to me some of the times, mostly when I have too many things to do at the same time and don't know where to turn to. One example: from 19:00 to 19:30 every day I have to set the table, do the dinner, prepare the soup and fruit for my small kid and wash some dishes, as my wife baths the kid. Some days it is too much at the same time, and I start to feel paralyzed, like where do I turn to? My current solution is just to do anything. Anything at all. And as soon as I do anything, I start to see things moving, and instantly, that paralyzing feel goes away!
I am the type that struggles with the indecisive behavior and had to pay serious opportunity cost because of this type of behavior. I struggle with indecisiveness even with seemingly small decisions such as picking a restaurant for dinner.
Any pointers on behavioral trainings to change that? In this context, even if I have (and I typically do) have also "gut feeling" about something, I struggle to follow through.
In fact, I do think that being married to her forces decisiveness from me, in many cases. But for others, I just don't empathize very much, even with her. I'm quick to point out that it's a tiny difference that won't make any difference in the long run, but it doesn't seem to help her at all (I'm not insensitive as this may sound, I really am trying to help and she knows that).
That's the only thing I can say though - maybe analyze why you think this is an important decision, worth your time of consideration. If you can't think of a good enough reason, then say to yourself, "it doesn't matter", and flip a coin. Maybe literally, if that helps.
If you can, do some therapy, it will help.
Good luck!
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I view it as the vector of my past experiences and knowledge. Though, I do have to be careful not to conflate gut with excess of any emotion ex. greed, hope etc. I am also carefully aware of when the "rules of the game" might be changing but that might be the "data" you are describing.
Learning from past mistakes, past times you were fooled, times you were right, pulling from a vast and diverse set of knowledge that only makes sense in hidsight.
Let's say I have a choice between A and B. My instinct is telling me A, and I have a rational reasoning for B.
Assuming that the strength of the instinct (0 - 100, "complete indifference" to "every cell if my body is screaming for it") is comparable to the confidence I have in my reasoning (0 - 100, "complete guess" to "I have factual proof and competence that tells me this is the answer"), then if I get it wrong because I went with A I'll be much more prone to accept it as "I'm ok with this mistake" then if I went with B and go it wrong.
This, to me, is true at all levels of intensity. If I don't have strong feelings one way or another I'll follow instinct over reason and assume that my subconscious knows something I don't. If my rational confidence and instincts are high (assuming I dont have time to analyze the conflict), if I get it wrong "rationally" I'll kick myself more than if I got it wrong "irrationally".
So there is a real advantage in mental health with going with guts.
In my experience lot of people operate on 'autopilot', and I find it incredibly sad. They have all of humanity's knowledge accessible to them in their hands through phones, I wish they would sometimes stop to search and read and learn and expand their internal knowledge bases. I wish people were more curious and open-minded.
I've personally always derived a lot of joy from constantly learning and improving myself and it's baffling to me how little growth and positive change I see in many of the people around me over the years.
I kinda feel like what you're getting at is that your iteration of autopilot is better than others. In the abstract most people are pulling information out of the web and ostensibly using it to construct a model. The difference here is priorities and to some extent the framework of moral schematics.
I would expect you're under the impression that what you're doing is productive, and productivity is good. That's not necessarily the case though - that's just a lens that post-Christian western society has adopted for scrutinizing individuals, and frankly it's a little harmful.
My point is that it's easier than ever before to improve yourself through readily accessible resources. I wish more people would.
It can be through learning about different people's experiences, considering alternative opinions, thinking about views that oppose your own, studying social sciences, having conversations, and so on.
It's everywhere. From Quora where people from a certain country rush to type a non-answer quoting a useless memorized definition to your doctor.
But also plenty of people have anxieties about their livelihood these days thanks to wages, the economy, and the state of the world. It might be baffling because you lack perspective on that front by not having a shit life!
There are legitimate questions to ask, "Is book Y worth the money?" "If I learn Z, will it increase my job prospects?" But "should I learn X?" is a bad question, and only something as awful as years mandatory schooling can make someone think it is a good one.
Unless you were raised in an environment very different than the world you are in today. e.g. your youth was in a hostile environment and now you are in a safe environment. Or your youth was in a safe environment and now you are in a hostile environment. In that case, I am not sure how you unfuck yourself. The former case seems to lead to the most difficult to correct instincts.
It's easier to become harder and more mortified than to become softer, more pliable, and more trusting.
The point I make with this is that if we view things through the lens of being 'hard' vs being 'soft', then the worst case outcome of being 'hard' is relatively miniscule - looking a genuine gift horse in the mouth may cost one a 'gift.' By contrast the consequences of being 'soft' can be extreme. To run with the same analogy - happily opening your gates to that beautiful wooden horse from Troy. What a gift!
The reason I use 80 years as the metric is because that is, more or less, the time before we get to discover the answer to that final question. And you never know whether you're in a good time, or a bad time. The bad guys don't simply announce "Hey guys. I'm evil. Let's go do evil things to those other guys under farcical rationale, because it sounds like a good thing to do. Who's with me!?" So all one can do is optimize for your entire life, or whatever remains of it.
Sometimes, they will lead you astray, but sometimes they give you valuable advice on what to do. Learning what scenarios have a high/low success rate is useful. Just my 2 cents.
For example, I have good success rate just feeling around numbers and seeing what feels right when doing tasks like, "guess how many jelly beans in the jar". I have a very poor success rate in deciding whom to date.
At the start of a shift I'd ask myself where to go. When I was between passengers, driving around thinking about where to find my next fare, I'd do a "left, right or straight" as I approached intersections. Sometimes it was definite response, sometimes I got the impression that it didn't matter.
One of the passengers I've told you all about ... I was next to her apartment when she called for her taxi. She's doing much better now, because I took some time to talk to her.
Ingo Swann said something about how we have much more than the 5 physical senses of sight, sound, touch, taste, and smell. ... Random blog post about our other 'senses': https://www.hellahealth.com/blog/wellness/humans-five-senses...
(I met Ingo before I took to taxi driving: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32587071 )
Intuition helps keep us alive, and helps put is in the right place at the right time so we can meet the people we're supposed to meet to move us along on whatever we're working on.