Every morning I close all work browser tabs from prior day. 99% of them I don't need again/can just reopen if I need. The 1% I'll note on a todo list or keep open somewhere.
Readit Newsxivzgrev commented on “Nothing” is the secret to structuring your work vangemert.dev/blog/nothin... · Posted by u/spmvg
xivzgrev commented on Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon wilsoniumite.com/2026/01/... · Posted by u/Wilsoniumite
What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by most and many would make money off the crash.
I’m not sure what the effects of a highly anticipated crash are, but I’d love to discuss what they might be.
It’s priced into gold, which I think reflects negative dollar sentiment. It’s not priced into the VIX, which is implied volatility across the S&P. Suggesting a crash in equities is not priced in.
There's also the fact that US equities are now consistently best asset class. Used to be all over the map. But with rise of passive investing and global markets, capital flows to the winner. Success begets success.
If something changes and suddenly foreign equities start consistently beating out US then capital would flow accordingly. But the US still has a massive advantage from passive flows propping it up in perpetuity.
xivzgrev commented on Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon wilsoniumite.com/2026/01/... · Posted by u/Wilsoniumite
What if the rise in index funds is a bubble on its own?
It's massive and increasing amounts of money that is not price sensitive and keeps growing. There's an underlying bubble message: "the stock market always bounces back, so keep plowing your money into it even when it's down".
Apparently passive funds are 60% of mutual funds / ETFs now https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-insights/has-passiv...
Even more insidious is that this is in part driven by retail who are not paying attention. It's literally the definition of passive, hands off
So at some point, valuations will become increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. Active players will notice and find some way to take advantage. Passive yields will eaten. But at what point will the scales tip and people decide it's a sham and there are better places to park your money? That's when a huge bubble will collapse.
I don't know. Honestly don't know if that will ever happen because I'm not sure what a better investment for average Joe would be than a passive broad stock market index.
Related thought: maybe the rise in passive is a permanent buoy for positive market sentiment
In the past bad news led to jumpiness and people getting out, including retail. Now you have a massive amount of money that keeps going. So if you jump out..you see that so much money continues to plow in, and price starts going back up. So you come back in so you don't miss out. And on we go.
I think it's very possible passive investing is changing the dynamic, where downturns are more muted. It's overall a good thing but again, as I said above, it feels like it's setting up an even bigger ruin down the road
xivzgrev commented on Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon wilsoniumite.com/2026/01/... · Posted by u/Wilsoniumite
What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by most and many would make money off the crash.
I’m not sure what the effects of a highly anticipated crash are, but I’d love to discuss what they might be.
It’s priced into gold, which I think reflects negative dollar sentiment. It’s not priced into the VIX, which is implied volatility across the S&P. Suggesting a crash in equities is not priced in.
What if the rise in index funds is a bubble on its own?
It's massive and increasing amounts of money that is not price sensitive and keeps growing. There's an underlying bubble message: "the stock market always bounces back, so keep plowing your money into it even when it's down".
Apparently passive funds are 60% of mutual funds / ETFs now https://www.avantisinvestors.com/avantis-insights/has-passiv...
Even more insidious is that this is in part driven by retail who are not paying attention. It's literally the definition of passive, hands off
So at some point, valuations will become increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. Active players will notice and find some way to take advantage. Passive yields will eaten. But at what point will the scales tip and people decide it's a sham and there are better places to park your money? That's when a huge bubble will collapse.
I don't know. Honestly don't know if that will ever happen because I'm not sure what a better investment for average Joe would be than a passive broad stock market index.
Google has several enviable, if not moats, at least redoubts. TPUs, mass infrastructure and own their own cloud services, they own delivery mechanisms on mobile (Android) and every device (Chrome). And Google and Youtube are still #1 and #2 most visited websites in the world.
Not to mention security. I'd trust Google more not to have a data breach than open AI / whomever. Email accounts are hugely valuable but I haven't seen a Google data breach in the 20+ years I've been using them. This matters because I don't want my chats out there in public.
Also integration with other services. I just had Gemini summarize the contents of a Google Drive folder and it was effortless & effective
xivzgrev commented on You’re not burnt out, you’re existentially starving neilthanedar.com/youre-no... · Posted by u/thanedar
I'm burned out because I have to raise two young children, work a full time job in a demanding career, and then in the hour or two a day of time that isn't accounted for in those two tasks, I need to maintain a household and try to care for myself. I feel a strong sense of purpose caring for my family, but don't have enough time to meet life's demands. Maybe other people relate more to this post because they more money and no kids.
I relate so much to this comment. We love our kids but it's hard to balance various demands.
Often times ourselves get the short end, but others find a way to give each their due including themselves
xivzgrev commented on Ford kills the All-Electric F-150 wired.com/story/ford-kill... · Posted by u/sacred-rat
No one in top comments is mentioning a key point. It was cheap looking.
How the truck looks is important. Outside the bottom end of market, it's a status symbol. I got a tundra TRD earlier this year and I've gotten multiple compliments on it because it's a good looking truck.
The F150 lightning looked cheap. The grill is this crappy plastic. And there was no upgrade feature to make it cooler.
If they had the option to make it look like the Raptor or one of their higher end F150s, it may have sold better.
David vs Goliath - well done epic
xivzgrev commented on How private equity is changing housing theatlantic.com/ideas/202... · Posted by u/harambae
Maybe if I say it enough times it will become true.
Corporations shouldn't be able to own single family homes. Corporations shouldn't be able to own single family homes. Corporations shouldn't be able to own single family homes. Corporations shouldn't be able to own single family homes. Corporations shouldn't be able to own single family homes...
xivzgrev commented on Ask HN: Should "I asked $AI, and it said" replies be forbidden in HN guidelines? · Posted by u/embedding-shape
This wouldn't ban the behavior, just the disclosure of it.
Agreed - in fact these folks are going out of their way to be transparent about it. It's much easier to just take credit for a "smart" answer