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wordpad commented on Wall Street just lost $285B because of 13 Markdown files   martinalderson.com/posts/... · Posted by u/nomdep
H8crilA · 5 days ago
I don't understand why people think they know why stocks move up or down. There are clear cases from time to time, but in general the market doesn't explain itself. The reasons may not even be explainable in a way that's comprehensive to a human.

Reminds me of this question - why did the USSR collapse? You can describe dozens of influences which acted all at the same time, but there isn't a one paragraph summary answer.

wordpad · 5 days ago
> Why USSR collapsed

Price of oil collapsed leading to mass shortages of everything. They also decided to allow more individual freedoms to protest which people promptly used to overthrow the system.

wordpad commented on CIA suddenly stops publishing, removes archives of The World Factbook   simonwillison.net/2026/Fe... · Posted by u/ck2
gunapologist99 · 6 days ago
I know this isn’t a popular opinion, and yeah, I will also miss it, but I’ve always thought the World Factbook was a strange thing for the CIA to be publishing in the first place.

Not because the information is false, but because the act of choosing which facts to publish is itself an opinion. Once you accept that, you’re no longer talking about neutral data; you’re talking about the official position of the United States government, whether that was the intent or not. pro tip: I'm sure it was, esp during the Cold War(tm)

That creates problems, especially in diplomacy. Negotiation depends on what you don’t say as much as what you do. Publicly cataloging a country’s political structure, demographics, or internal conditions may feel benign, but it can complicate discussions that are already delicate, and sometimes existential.

It also gives away more than anyone would like to admit. It signals what we know, what we think we know, and what we’re willing to put our name behind. Even basic statistics like population or religious composition can become leverage or liabilities in the wrong context, and you can’t realistically scrub or redact them every time you enter into a diplomatic negotiation or whatever.

The core issue is simple: this isn’t a private research group or a tech company publishing an open dataset; it’s literally the largest intelligence agency (if you exclude NSA I think) of the United States government publicly describing other nations. That isn’t neutral.

Also, once an agency like the CIA is ideologically skewed, even subconsciously, objective facts become directional. Not by falsifying GDP or population, but by emphasizing governance scores, freedom indices, demographic categories, or economic structures in ways that subtly reinforce a worldview. That kind of torque is harder to detect and harder to challenge than obvious propaganda.

During the Cold War, that might have made sense. Actually, it probably makes sense all the time, but my guess is that the current administration thought (rightly or wrongly) that the editorial team was no longer objective, or they decided there were better avenues to get their message out there.

However, the fact that it no longer even maintained archives since the Biden administration (2020), though, says something else, at least to me: it says that the current admin was in agreement with the previous administration, which means it might have been a bi-partisan view that either it was no longer needed or (really, it seems) no longer wanted or at least valued by either administration.

wordpad · 6 days ago
World Factbook is targeting US government itself providing a consistent and open view on the topic - a single official position on basic facts.
wordpad commented on The Five Levels: From spicy autocomplete to the dark factory   danshapiro.com/blog/2026/... · Posted by u/benwerd
WorldMaker · 14 days ago
My growing (cynical) feeling is that AI-generated code is legacy-code-as-a-service. It is by nature trained on other people and company's legacy code. (There's the training set window which is always in the past. There's the economics question of which companies would ever volunteer to opt-in their best proprietary production code into training sets. Sure there are a few entirely open source companies, but those are still the exception and not the rule.) "Vibe code" is essentially delivered as Day Zero "Legacy Code" in the sense that the person who wrote that code is essentially no longer at the company (even if context windows get extended to incredibly huge sizes and you have great prompt preservation tools, eventually you no longer have the original context and not to mention that the Models themselves retrain and get upgraded every so many months are essentially "different people" each time. But most importantly the Models themselves can't tell you the motivating "how" or "why" of anything, at best maybe good specs documents and prompts do, but even that can be a gamble).

The article starts with a lot of words about how the meaning and nature of "tech debt" are going to change a lot as AI adoption increases and more vibe coding happens, but I think I disagree on what that change means. I don't AI reduces "tech debt". I don't think it is "deflationary" in any way. I think AI are going to gift us a world of tech debt "hyperinflation". When every application in a company is "legacy code" all you have is tech debt.

Having worked in companies with lots of legacy code, the thing you learn is that those apps are never as disposable as you want to believe. The sunk cost fallacy kicks in. (Generative AI Tokens are currently cheap, but cheap isn't free. Budgets still exist.) Various status quo fallacies kick in: "that's how the system has always worked", "we have to ensure every new version is backwards compatible with the old version", "we can't break anyone's existing process/workflow", "we can't require retraining", "we need 1:1 all the same features", and so forth.

You can't just "vibe code" something of equal quality if you can't even figure out what "equal quality" means. That's many the death of a legacy code "rewrite project". By the time you've figured out how every user uses it (including how many bugs are load-bearing features in someone's process) you have too many requirements to consider, not enough time or budget left, and eventually a mandate to quit and "not fix what isn't broken". (Except it was broken enough to start up a discovery process at least once, and may do so again when the next team thinks they can dream up a budget for it.)

Tech debt isn't going away and tech debt isn't getting eliminated. Tech Debt is getting baked into Day Zero of production operations. (Projects may be starting already "in hock to creditors". The article says "Dark Software Factory" but I read "Dark Software Pawn Shop".) Tech debt is potentially increasing at a faster than human scale of understanding it. I feel like Legacy Code skills are going to be in higher demand than ever. It is maybe going to be "deflationary" in cost for those jobs but only because the supply of Legacy Code projects will be so high and software developers will have a buffet to choose from.

wordpad · 13 days ago
I don't see why AI would be able to help you solve all your legacy code problems.

It still struggles making changes to large code bases, but it doesn't have any problems explaining those code bases to you helping you research or troubleshoot functionality 10x faster, especially if you're knowledgable enough not to take it at its responses as gospel but willing to have the conversation. A simple layman prompt of "are you sure X does Y for Z reason? Then what about Q?" will quickly get to them bottom of any functionality. 1 million token context window is very capable if you manage that context window properly with high level information and not just your raw code base.

And once you understand the problem and required solution, AI won't have any problems producing high quality working code for you, be it in RUST or COBOL.

wordpad commented on Management as AI superpower: Thriving in a world of agentic AI   oneusefulthing.org/p/mana... · Posted by u/swolpers
candiddevmike · 15 days ago
If AI gets to be this sophisticated, what value would you bring to the table in these scenarios?
wordpad · 15 days ago
EVERY developer will own their own hyper niche SAAS?
wordpad commented on Management as AI superpower: Thriving in a world of agentic AI   oneusefulthing.org/p/mana... · Posted by u/swolpers
ajzushzb · 15 days ago
AI works best when you’re selling it (author fits in this category as well).
wordpad · 15 days ago
Reminds me of blockchains and blockchain advocates.
wordpad commented on My first year in sales as technical founder   fabiandietrich.com/blog/f... · Posted by u/f3b5
storystarling · 19 days ago
I'd be careful sending raw audio to public APIs given the sensitive commercial info. A local pipeline with Whisper and Llama 3 is viable now and solves the privacy issue. It also keeps the long-term inference costs much lower.
wordpad · 19 days ago
Llama 3 is far from cutting edge now and the value from quality analytics would far surpass risk adjusted odds of your info leaking.
wordpad commented on Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction   entropicthoughts.com/nvid... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
rwmj · 22 days ago
There's approximately 0% chance that China will ship leading edge wafers from captured TSMC to the West.
wordpad · 22 days ago
Not true, it might be something they compromise on to restore relations
wordpad commented on Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction   entropicthoughts.com/nvid... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
Ekaros · 22 days ago
At this point computation is in essence commodity. And commodities have demand cycles. If other economic factors slowdown or companies go out of business they stop using compute or start less new products that use compute. Thus it is entirely realistic to me that demand for compute might go down. Or that we are just now over provisioning compute in short or medium term.
wordpad · 22 days ago
So...like Cisco during dot com bust?
wordpad commented on Nvidia Stock Crash Prediction   entropicthoughts.com/nvid... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
mikkupikku · 22 days ago
If a taxi company did that every year, they'd be losing a lot of money. Of course new cars and cards are cheaper to operate than old ones, but is that difference enough to offset buying a new one every one to three years?
wordpad · 22 days ago
If your competitor refreshes their cards and you dont, they will win on margin.

You kind of have to.

wordpad commented on The recurring dream of replacing developers   caimito.net/en/blog/2025/... · Posted by u/glimshe
xnx · 25 days ago
Machinery made farmers more efficient and now there are more farmers than ever.
wordpad · 25 days ago
Machinery and scale efficiencies made cost of entry higher than ever though

That's not the case for IT where entry barrier has been reduced to nothing.

u/wordpad

KarmaCake day38April 7, 2024View Original