will_brown (u/will_brown)

will_brown commented on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds theinformation.com/articl... · Posted by u/lxm

dang · 6 years ago

> I was recently chided and reproached by the HN mods for knocking scooter companies

On the contrary, I chided you for posting in the flamewar style (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20347016), which we don't want on HN and which the site guidelines ask you not to do. We don't care about scooter companies, we care about the signal/noise ratio of HN threads.

will_brown · 6 years ago

Well not to rock the boat or beat a dead horse here, but it would appear my down voting/flagging privileges have been removed since this post, could they be reinstated?

will_brown commented on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds theinformation.com/articl... · Posted by u/lxm

smallgovt · 6 years ago

This is a very cynical perspective. The public markets are generally very unforgiving. This is why so many tech companies are choosing to stay private longer. If it was all about duping the public, they would IPO asap before the ship sinks.

Sure, there are examples like Blue Apron that seem to fit your narrative, but they are the exception.

If your narrative was correct, hedge funds or other intelligent investors would quickly catch on and short funds that purely track tech IPO's and make a killing. Obviously playing the markets is not this easy.

will_brown · 6 years ago

>The public markets are generally very unforgiving. This is why so many tech companies are choosing to stay private longer.

Can you even explain what that means?

In my estimation the companies are staying private longer so the VCs can blow up the valuations pre IPO higher than anytime in history, whereas, if the startup IPO’d from the start there is no way to continue the growth while sustaining the loss (in the real world business have to make a profit to continue) and VCs couldn’t make the same profit they do now, but in all other respects the risk would be the same.

Anyway it wouldn’t be to hard to look at the IPO of VC backed tech startups and determine what % had profits vs operating losses (obviously my guess is the majority are IPOing at losses). Then, a further analysis could be done to see if the average startup company valuations/market caps declined post IPO and how much pre IPO investors/shareholders took off the table.

Edit: looks like since 2010 there have been 100+ tech unicorns ($1B+ valuation) and ~2/3 didn’t make profit. Wish I could readily calculate how much VCs made taking those companies public, maybe someone can link an article/data.

will_brown commented on Hit by Big Loss, Bird Seeks $300M in New Funds theinformation.com/articl... · Posted by u/lxm

docker_up · 6 years ago

Bird scooters is a completely unviable business. It lacks revenues during the rain and winter and when it's dark. One user using it for an hour completely drains the battery and it's unusable until someone picks it up and charges it. It needs to be redistributed every night to popular locations which causes even more cost. As well, damage to electric scooters is almost at a sport-like level now.

The only way they can make it more cost beneficial is if they charge less if the rider drops off their scooters at a charging station and higher costs if they just dump the scooter anywhere. But that is more costs for Bird.

Second is if they franchise out the business to "entrepreneurs" that handle things for them and they just concentrate on the app. But that's not a multi-billion dollar business.

There is no path where Bird becomes a viable business that grows into its absurd valuation.

will_brown · 6 years ago

>There is no way where Bird becomes a viable business that grows into its absurd valuation.

I was recently chided and reproached by the HN mods for knocking scooter companies (even got the old “this isn’t personal, but don’t...”).

the point is with any SV funded company you don’t need revenue or even to be a viable business. You just need SV money (I think Bird has already burned through $415M and now asking for this $300M) to launch the business and “grow” the user base and/or metrics(someone here once fittingly described the model as selling $5 bills for $1).

So now you raise $500M sell $5 bills for $1, the startup staggers their sales so they show constant growth month over month, in reality you raise additional rounds to get more VCs to buy in and help market the company, then finally when you show tremendous growth (metrics), show revenue of $100M, then you file for a IPO and explain away the losses of $400M by saying at any point you can “flip the switch” and cut costs by no longer reinvesting in growth but make profits. Then at IPO you cash out and dump the shit company that’s never made a dollar on the public because all they see is the media pushed by SV/VCs with the media contacts, the big SV investor names, 100% growth month over month metrics, and the hope they to will get rich.

will_brown commented on Google employees are listening to Google Home conversations translate.google.com/tran... · Posted by u/bartkappenburg

gtirloni · 6 years ago

From a computer science perspective, what should Google do to train its models in a privacy conscious way?

will_brown · 6 years ago

>From a computer science perspective, what should Google do to train its models in a privacy conscious way?

Install these devices in the homes of google employees, executives and offices and allow the public to listen in. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander and all.

Maybe when google has trained the systems enough to not need to train them by collecting and listening to customers conversations, then they enter them into the stream of commerce.

will_brown commented on China is building a floating train that could be faster than air travel weforum.org/agenda/2019/0... · Posted by u/jonbaer

xiii1408 · 6 years ago

I'm continuously baffled by our (Americans') fixation with innovating on public transit technology instead of actually building any that people could use right now.

Why focus money on developing a hyperloop++, when we could have something almost as good with technology that currently exists?

will_brown · 6 years ago

Because the US doesn’t care about helping people who would take public transportation...instead we prefer VCs funneling money into innovative startups disrupting transportation by littering scooters all over our public walkways and allowing them to eventually take these companies public for billions in return.

God forbid you have an opinion other than US transportation is the best, US healthcare is the best, US education is the best...you can’t even look at other countries models or actual global rankings showing the US outspends every other country in those area yet our outcomes are nowhere near the top.

will_brown commented on ICANN lifts the price cap on .org domains domainnamewire.com/2019/0... · Posted by u/ndmrs

halfmatthalfcat · 6 years ago

The whole domain market experience is utter crap. Commoditizing domain names has created such an unbalanced power dynamic between buyers and sellers where the sellers hold all the power. Gatekeeping at it's finest.

Contrast this with acquiring a business name through any Department of State/Division of Corporations.

I shouldn't have to name my company some contorted bastardization to successfully enter the market.

will_brown · 6 years ago

>Contrast this with acquiring a business name through any Department of State/Division of Corporations.

What do you mean by this?

Generally if a corporate name is registered (example: ABC, INC.) most states will not allow another “ABC” to be registered (even if ending in another suffix like “Corp” or even if another type of entity like an LLC).

I had a client in a certain state who registered their entity name as MSG HOLDINGS and wouldn’t you know I got a call from General Counsel of Madison Square Garden one day making an offer to purchase my clients entity solely for the name.

will_brown commented on Tell HN: Social media strike proposed for July 4-5 by Wikipedia co-founder · Posted by u/lsanger

will_brown · 6 years ago

Here is a suggestion for the strike as well...launch a decentralized anti-libra coin.