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walkhour commented on Daniel Dennett has died   dailynous.com/2024/04/19/... · Posted by u/mellosouls
ithkuil · a year ago
I must admit I always scoffed at philosophers, but then I started reading Dennett and not only I finally met a philosopher that I respected, but he helped me unlock what other philosophers are doing and I started to see philosophers as a whole in new light.
walkhour · a year ago
What books in particular would you recommend?
walkhour commented on Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI   arxiv.org/abs/2401.02843... · Posted by u/treebrained
sveme · 2 years ago
Does anyone know potential causal chains that bring about the extinction of mankind through AI? Obviously aware of terminator, but what other chains would be possible?
walkhour · 2 years ago
This argument gives a 35% chance of AI "taking over" (granted this does not mean extinction) this century: https://www.foxy-scout.com/wwotf-review/#underestimating-ris.... The argument consists of 6 steps, assigning probabilities to each step, and multiplying the probabilities.
walkhour commented on Why the decline of US power has been greatly exaggerated   theguardian.com/us-news/2... · Posted by u/hackandthink
raccoonDivider · 2 years ago
Because these countries rely on the US military for protection? All the EU does against Russia. Japan and south-east Asian countries do against China.

Look up how underfunded Germany’s Bundeswehr has been these past few years, how France’s push to build up European defenses is going, how Eastern European countries rely on NATO.

When you get defense for “free” from an overstretched US military, you obviously have more budget to develop your own country.

walkhour · 2 years ago
The US military budget is 12% of the total.

> I want affordable housing. Affordable healthcare. High speed rail. Better zoning laws. New subway lines.

Are you saying we only need 12% of the budget to fix these things? Note that coincidentally medicare is already accounting for ~12% of the total.

Say the military budget goes to zero (which it can't), and we spend half of that on medicare (it would be 18%). Will it fix the problem?

I think the problem is much deeper than wasting this 12%.

walkhour commented on China's Video Game AI Art Crisis: 40x Productivity Spike, 70% Job Loss   artisana.ai/articles/chin... · Posted by u/Al0neStar
anonzzzies · 2 years ago
Ah yes, and meanwhile here on HN, everyone keeps repeating AI is not ‘replacing anyone yet’ and no one has to worry. While people are getting axed and replaced by AI everywhere I look.

Examples:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35326865

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35194986

walkhour · 2 years ago
This is just the beginning and we don't know what will happen. Some people will say creative destruction is happening and people will find other jobs. They may equate this to the horse drivers finding other jobs at the beginning of the XXth century.

The truth is we don't know. People that will lose their jobs may find other jobs or not. Maybe it's harder to reinvent oneself now. Maybe a lot of people will truly suffer because of AI.

I find very hard to know with certainty what will happen, who will remain unharmed, and who will struggle but make it through, but change is coming.

walkhour commented on Germany's Slowdown   apricitas.io/p/germanys-s... · Posted by u/paulpauper
walkhour · 2 years ago
> Germany was especially vulnerable to the withdrawal of Russian natural gas supplies—the country used a disproportionate amount of natural gas for its heavy industry and gas-powered home heating systems, and in 2021, 55% of German natural gas consumption came from Russia

So much reliance on a potential enemy was a huge mistake. Germany should've foreseen that in the span of say 40 years it was likely there would be a major conflict with Russia.

All prediction markets were estimating at fairly high this possibility and the fact that Germany didn't realize this and course-corrected is surprising to say the least.

walkhour commented on The U.S. cracked a $3.4B crypto heist and Bitcoin’s anonymity   wsj.com/articles/bitcoin-... · Posted by u/gmays
paulpauper · 2 years ago
Zhong was caught because he made basic operational security errors, like address reuse (which is how he was caught by linking fraud wallet to exchange wallet) , static IP, using a KYC exchange in 2017 to convert BCH into BTC, etc. Not because Bitcoin was cracked. After being caught, Zhong voluntarily relinquished his passwords to encrypted wallets and other bitcoin, not that the crypto was cracked.

I wonder how the feds bypassed the statute of limitations on this. He was not identified until almost a decade after the theft. I am guessing his attempts at laundering the money and spending, reset the clock.

walkhour · 2 years ago
> found the digital keys to his crypto fortune hidden in a basement floor safe and a popcorn tin in the bathroom.

Apparently he didn't voluntarily give away he's secrets, they were found around his place.

walkhour commented on After 30 years, a father is exonerated in 'Satanic panic' case   tpr.org/criminal-justice/... · Posted by u/anigbrowl
walkhour · 2 years ago
> Quinney should be entitled to compensation from the state. It isn’t immediately clear what the final number will be but it will stretch into the hundreds of thousands of dollars or more.

Hundreds of thousands for eight years in jail, decades of angst, and a broken family ...

walkhour commented on Book Review: From Oversight To Overkill   astralcodexten.substack.c... · Posted by u/apsec112
walkhour · 2 years ago
The fact that bureaucrats err on side of minimizing deaths caused by experiments is just a consequence of deaths being caused by experiments being unequivocally trivial to prove.

Meanwhile finding out the number of deaths caused by extra caution and delaying the experiment requires a calculation, and then a very lengthy blog post to be communicated.

Bureaucrats don't care about the second kind of deaths because they can hardly be linked to their actions. Now the first kind of deaths are directly their responsibility. And guess what, they can be avoided with a flick of a pen.

walkhour commented on American IQ scores have rapidly dropped, proving the 'Reverse Flynn effect'   popularmechanics.com/scie... · Posted by u/hirundo
runarberg · 2 years ago
No I don’t agree that heritability of IQ is well established.

First of all I do not believe that IQ is a good metric for intelligence, nor that intelligence is a useful scientific construct.

Secondly, there are whole subthreads here that go into the nuances of what heritability means for measured IQ. From what I’ve gathered is that findings which assign 50-80% of the variance to inheritance neglect to account for covariance, or use very biased assumptions about G×E correlations or G×E interactions which skewes the results in favor of genetic explanations, i.e. they are biased.

walkhour · 2 years ago
> No I don’t agree that heritability of IQ is well established

> Although IQ differences between individuals have been shown to have a large hereditary component ...

You have written both statements ...

walkhour commented on California to lend 20% down payments with 0% interest for homebuyers   kpbs.org/news/2023/04/05/... · Posted by u/nostromo
burlesona · 2 years ago
Unfortunately, the way financialization works, we should expect this to lead to a bump in home prices that roughly perfectly offsets the increased buying power created by this financial instrument. The only long-term solution to affordable housing is abundant supply.
walkhour · 2 years ago
Someone said a few posts ago housing can't be affordable and a good investment.

This is just madness, house prices are guaranteed to go up and affordability is likely to increase zero.

u/walkhour

KarmaCake day513June 5, 2021View Original