Currently struggling with an experiment where DeepSeek-R1 is being overly verbose.
After "Isaac Newton, who may have been the smartest person who ever lived" the level of trust fell drastically.
Sure, the periodic table was extremely useful and we were using electricity before we understood it, but we understand LLMs far better, mostly because they are our own creation.
Maybe the lines between exploration, creation and discovery are fuzzy sometimes, but this article tips over into AI propaganda.
I think you got the causality the other way around here.
A business can't be scrutinized unless the units of economics are understood.
Plus, Ed's articles have been circulated in some investment groups and nobody expressed a clear counter-point.
PS. I wasn't familiar with that saying.
This stood out to me:
> ChatGPT 5 and ChatGPT OSS are here with the purpose of profitability
This is economically good, but it's also a signal that their capacity to moonshot is stalling either through lack of funding or lack of innovation. They're now pivoting to a more sustainable model.
Models have seen diminishing returns over the last 2 generations of model: GPT3.5 to 4o to 5.
Doubling parameter size does not double model ability/quality.
In the long term models will become commodities that can be interchanged with competitors and open source models, there's no moat, it's not likely anyone is going to sustainably have a hugely better model than the next company.
Claude Code is already showing that you can win in a niche with specialization.
I expect 3 things:
1. We won't see massive jumps on model performance again for a while without new techniques. 2. Model makers will specialize in specific use cases like claude code 3. Moonshot projects like stargate will not have outsized returns, the step change from o3/o4 models to whatever comes next will not be groundbreaking. Partly because of diminishing returns and partly because the average person is bad at explaining what they want an LLM to do.
Agreed. It's the saving grace for most platform which integrate LLMs even right now. Eg. v0 narrows the scope of general purpose LLMs and offers educated guides.