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Readit Newstrod123 commented on Using Raspberry Pi as a network impairment medium.com/@fuji246/basic... · Posted by u/jayFu
Had this happen to me many years ago. Applied for a manager position at a company. It would have been a lateral move for me but closer to home. At the interview I discovered that there was no manager position open. It was for a manager trainee position making half of what I was currently making. I was angry at how they didn’t care a bit about the deception or wasting my time.
Its not the deception that's the problem, its the false advertising and fraud.
In the last two years (shortly after GPT) I've got a list of about 400 of these outfits. Indeed and LinkedIn don't remove them when reported. Many are the same entity with similar naming conventions.
Hint: Run your own web server with resources tied to a uniquely keyed access token per job application, have analytics on the site with various portfolio and other useful information.
You'll see the same companies, and IP blocks (even if they advertised under a false name) show up regularly.
If you can't detect them on the front-end because of bad actors, fingerprint them on the backend when they access the provided resource. (P.S. Ensure you are in a locality where its legal to do so, I am not a lawyer).
Tech overhired for many years, in part because higher head count leads to higher stock market valuation (at least in the eyes of gullible investors).
Meanwhile, more than a decade of this hiring extravaganza had passed already, and tech largely doesn't have much to show for it - mostly a graveyard of failed and cancelled projects and products. Perhaps the charade is no longer bought by investors, and they don't see tech stocks as super high growth any more, so companies can stop pretending to innovate via bullshit projects that mostly go nowhere, and cut a significant portion of the staff.
You are disregarding the ongoing trend of replacing IT workers with AI.
The tech sector has shifted from rewarding growth to rewarding profitability. The result means trimming developer headcount substantially. Meanwhile the rest of the economy is experiencing record low unemployment and a mild recovery from a record high spike in inflation.
Keeping all that in mind there is no longer a real incentive to become a developer. The wages are no longer keeping pace against skilled trade crafts, tech jobs are now extremely hard for initially enter, and nobody can objectively define competence. Furthermore the tech sector, in general, is supremely starved of real leadership at every level. So, what incentive is there to be a developer versus commercial construction, for example?
You can make more as a fast food worker, and don't have to sweat when all the IT systems go down because they chose to replace you with AI.
Right now the economy is fine, but there's a huuuuge likelihood of a recession. Why?
We just had a rate cut and in the past 30 years a recession happened after max. 2 quarters after the that.
If you see news from 2006 you will see people saying that the economy looks strong despite some structural issues, the economy is a huge machine and takes time to both take speed and stop, like a giant car.
Imagine the FED raising rates as pushing the brakes, the car won't stop suddenly, it needs time. The same happens with economic activity.
Now that the FED had to almost call an urgent meeting to cut .5, it's a clear sign that it could be that the car/economy was actually stopped. It isn't clear because everybody is working, but every cent that goes out of a central bank has an expectation of returns, if the expectations are that there will be negative returns, money will stop, it won't be invested, products won't get sold, houses won't be bought, everyone's plan will be delayed to the future.
And on Today's economy, you can't just stop or delay. Things need to be bought. A construction company needs to sell their real estate stock to pay back the bank and so on.
Money need to change hands, if it changes hands too slowly you get a recession and negative economic growth, if it changes too quickly you generate inflation.
The economy is not fine. It is like a race car, insofar as the problem scope is one of lagging indicators and hysteresis, (i.e. speed and fuel), but not as you elaborate.
Starting in 2010, the FED started quantitative easing. This marked the abandonment of the sound dollar policy. The economic fallout we face today are the natural consequences of money printing and the economic dynamics that worsen it.
You fail to realize the scope of the issue. In 2020/2021 the Saudi's abandoned the petrodollar agreement. This dramatically reduced the demand for our printed currency which our country has used to fund its deficit spending, and export debt to the nations who had to hold it. With the abandonment, the entire pool of printed money that nations had to hold to purchase goods like Fuel shrunk dramatically. At the same time, we had the pandemic, where we printed even more money which caused inflation and had to raise our rates to slow that down (rates don't stop inflation, it just slows down or speeds up the mixing).
Today we are faced with high rates, and high inflation. They will need to cut rates to encourage growth, but inflation will become hyper-inflation when it does.
The chaotic warblings of the market have caused shortage in non-discretionary goods. If one has been paying attention, you'll have seen the warning signs like frozen foods being consistently out, eggs increasing to almost a dollar per egg, and fast food now costing double for a single serving. There are still shortages too despite this.
Illiquidity in the debt market is all well and good in terms of velocity of money, but at the point where shortages occur and persist beyond 30 days, you've missed the mark dramatically.
You fundamentally misunderstand inflation and how interest rates affect it.
The thing is these tech companies don’t have a lot to do with the normal employment statistics. For instance Facebook hires so few employees that it could fire everybody but it would not (directly) move the needle of unemployment statistics nationally.
The media has been all over the issue that conventional statistics don’t show the economy as bad but many people think that it is.
The economy in tech is dramatically bad.
The national unemployment was 1.5% in August. The tech sector was %7.0?. The tech sector has hiring freezes starting in late October thru to March. August is the peak hiring, and the tech sector unemployment was 7%, 4.6x the national average, and keep in mind unemployment statistics only account for a rolling window of about 18 weeks give or take.
By March, that unemployment rate for tech will likely be well above 10% of the entire sector. This is unprecedented, and the downturn started in 2022 (outside that 18 week window), jobs have not increased in that time.
Subjective measures from insiders have quite a large number of tech workers describing the vast majority of their professional networks as being out of work, roughly 70% of my network is currently unemployed, and I've a few thousand people, having worked in IT for a decade in important roles.
Its wrong to claim something that is unupported/false when all external and objective signs show a serious problem. Doing this resorts to magical thinking, and delusion; definitionally.
Money was cheap, it no longer is. This is reach for profit in a less favorable macro by cutting labor costs. US economy, by all metrics, is extremely healthy. The stock market isn't the economy.
https://usafacts.org/state-of-the-union/economy/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-economy-posts-solid-gr...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/economy/us-economy-gdp-q3/ind...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/30/business/economy/economy-...
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/u-s-economy-grew-at-a-so...
If this were any other market, you might have a point but this is tech. The Tech sector is not correlated with changes in interest rates. It has a long history of not being correlated with interest rates (20+ years).
Do note that each one of your news outlets which you linked are members of the trusted news initiative, and effectively state run media (a cabal).
Please do your own diligence by looking at the actual data and stop pushing false rhetoric coming from an echo chamber. Accepting false information as true is by definition delusional.
It appears you have fallen for their propaganda, or otherwise have a vested interest in promoting such.
The US economy is not extremely healthy, it isn't healthy at all. By most metrics late 2022 showed growing warning signs of stagflation. The layoffs in 2023 solidified that, and layoffs continued unabated.
The abandonment of the petrodollar will guarantee inflation remains high despite high interest rates, and when they have to cut those interest rates because of deflation, hyper-inflation will surge. These distortions are the consequence of economic calculation problem in action (Mises).
BofA is on shaky ground, they will likely be the next large bank to fail. Shortages have been persistent in non-discretionary goods since August.
All of these signs are warning signs of economic collapse or as people have come to call it the hard landing. You can't print money indefinitely out of nothing and expect there won't be any consequence from that, the dire consequences we will be living through is what all those people warned about when the sound dollar policy for monetary policy was discarded.
A lot of data references models from economist's, but most economists have and continue to be wrong in their conclusions. Economies are limited visibility n-body systems, there are islands of regularity, and statistics isn't sufficiently developed to say anything about systems that have a mixture of regularity and chaos or correct for those.
trod123 commented on A Prescription for Fixing the US Healthcare System conversableeconomist.com/... · Posted by u/paulpauper
I believe the discussion of the “fix” for Healthcare as who has insurance and who doesn’t is wrong. Same with co-insurance or no co-insurance.
The fundamentals is that as a society we are getting older and sicker. Insurance fundamentally is about cost and risk sharing. The young are paying into a system that is mostly used by the old. That is unsustainable. In a private market, we are seeing doctors refusing to join certain insurance plans. And some insurance plans dropping certain coverages or pulling out of some markets.
I believe the fundamental fix for an aging sicker society is more healthcare and more affordable healthcare. Train more doctors, nurses, pharmacists and other healthcare providers. We need to increase supply to catch up with demand.
> I believe the discussion of the "fix" for Healthcare as who has insurance and who doesn't is wrong ...
I agree. I'd go so far as to say its evil, and the banality of evil that results in discussions surrounding this topic seems to be fairly delusional, which is rather unfortunate.
Thomas Paine had quite a lot to say about "dead men ruling", and that applies to any system where those supporting it are treated no better than slaves.
The problem with healthcare is there is currently no market for it. The market that is claimed today is in fact no real market because it is supported wholesale by the government. For a market to exist, you must have competition, and that means you do not cooperate with your competitors. This necessarily requires there to be many competitors (not few) to the point where cooperation becomes impossible.
Any centralized system fails because of only a few archetypal failures. Mises covers these failures in his works on Socialism (1930s).
So long as there is no market, there can be no solution. It fails completely in 6 different common ways if its a modern central heirarchy, and if its one of any number of sub-niches it may fail in more ways than that.
The solution is dependent on incentives, and there can be no real incentive as long as there is free money on the table conjured up by the printing press in the form of preferential loans.
Money printing destroys markets slowly over time until they collapse to non-market socialism. This is seen as a sieving action of consolidation over time, its ruinous, and its been happening for well over 50 years now unmitigated. The final leg of the ponzi will occur when outflows>inflows or debt growth exceeds GDP.
The fundamental fix isn't a supply side issue. Its a regulatory/corruption issue tamping down any potential market.
Also is it even right as a society to allow medical technology that enables one oldest generation to horde all the resources, and as a result out-compete the young with regards to those resources; to the point where the young cannot secure a future and stop having children? The old will age and die regardless.
The birth rate is now plummeting because the old have enacted systemic changes and refused to yield their political power to the next generation which should have happened in 2000. People die of old age, there is no escape.
Its morally wrong to impose wage slavery on the young by virtue that you spawned them, without representation or consent.
The problem itself will resolve in a few years when the great dying starts happening. The folly and banality of evil, of the boomer generation will be one for the history books.
How does the saying go, one bad generation is all it takes for society to fall to ruin and destruction? We're living through the proof of that saying.
Usually not a good sign
Well some of the more discerning people have been waiting for the shoe to drop in sheltered asset classes since the major red flags during the pandemic started occurring.
A large number of structural changes were made that fundamentally make the entire monetary system unsound, and these were largely silent changes (Basel III modified, no longer fractional banking reserve/overunity).
I've still got my copies of Benjamin Graham's Intelligent Investor, and Security Analysis by Graham Dodd sitting on my shelf, but nearly everything in those two books is no longer relevant with these changes, I'll still keep them as historical reference though their utility is now gone.
Other changes include preferential treatment of assets/synthetic shares/contracts during clearing for certain parties in the market (paper printing via commodities contracts/options).
Banking in general is in a deflationary concentration super-cycle. New banks can't enter the market, and the liabilities exceed assets for GSIBs/SIFIs. As time progresses, each will collapse chaotically, and when that bubble bursts it takes the markets with it into full deflation.
The petrodollar agreement being abandoned by the Saudi's is what is driving this to occur more rapidly. All the money printed and held by countries abroad is now returning to compete for the same goods. The demand for that pool of currency is much lower now.
The dynamics/indicators are flip-flopping between hyper-inflation Weimar, and great depression (for a couple months now).
This potentially might be a new big debt crises archetype. It appears that inflationary and deflationary pressures are spiking chaotically, labor statistics are being constantly revised (horribly inaccurate), and since action is based on lagging indicators eventually hysteresis results in a misstep hard landing.
You have a chaotic and narrowing safe path that eventually ends, which some argue describes the economic calculation problem.
Ponzi's always exact an unreasonable price. If you are interested in these archetypes, Ray Dalio's Bridgewater Report on Big Debt Crises is useful, though in my opinion he neglects a basic fact that reserve currencies can collapse without a replacement being on-hand and so a beautiful deleveraging is a matter of chance.
The collapse can be slow though, and evidenced by the shrinking number of producers in the market (those not backed by preferential loans/printing press).
Adam Smith's requirement; producers must make a profit in purchasing power or they leave the market. No real market can exist when entities cooperate, and are sustained by a printing press.
About the only thing they got right is the fact that large business has become delusional, and being delusional is not just a dick move.
Being delusional is synonymous with blind and evil at that level, but this is not some revolution, it is normal economics and it has predictable dynamics, that ultimately end in collapse, which is what we have been living through in a slow moving state of ruin, for quite some time but it is accelerating and it was caused by the central bankers and their comrades funded by preferential business loans, paid by your tax dollars through non-fractional banking.
We aren't that far off, and the talent brain drain that is happening is silent.
When you have malign parties cooperating to suppress wages, price gouge, cause shortage, impose higher costs on everyone, as well as keeping wages well below what is needed to secure financial safety for rearing children, and the employee can't find a job in their specialized profession despite being highly competent, those people leave for other options.
People stop having children, old with resources outcompetes young, and then there is a great dying.
People go where the jobs are, even if things normalize again later they don't just come back to that profession, they hang that hat up for good when its no longer viable.
No amount of money will bring them back to that profession. The golden time period for this seems to be about 1-2 years without being able to find work in their fields.
Once it happens, it becomes a closed road to them, and this psychology is sticky and is already happening. If you thought it was hard to find talent before, when you have large companies laying off 20% of their tech staff, they can't just rehire that 20% back because the competency isn't accounted for, you get the bottom of the barrel.
Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
You have a higher chance of losing the competent people forever than getting bare bones competency in a glut with no real way to validate competency.
Companies can be deceptive, but what that means is they lose credibility, and competent people discern, and when there is a silent vote of no confidence, where those intelligent people withdraw their support; ruin overtakes everything faster, and no amount of misinformation can hide this beyond a certain point.
If you are competent at your job, and there's a glut, you are better off going into another field despite being less proficient.
If companies are going to be malign, withdraw your support; stop giving them your mind. The time for talk came and went. Rise up, and take back the only thing you have of value that can't be taken from you without your consent; your mind.
Learn a productive trade, become a farmer, stop contributing support to systems that seek to destroy you. Prepare for the worst, because it is coming. The unprepared typically die, the prepared generally survive.