trasirinc (u/trasirinc)

trasirinc commented on New Huawei 96GB GPU e.huawei.com/cn/products/... · Posted by u/elorant

Escapado · 7 days ago

Naive question: Are the current (from what I have heard not very effective) export restrictions of HPC GPUs to china truly productive in the long run if the goal is to retain an edge? As in, to me it seems that it just fuels an expansion of domestic capabilities and in the car and solar sector my impression is that china had already proven that it can absolutely perform on par or even better in many different metrics compared to western countries, given time and pressure. So while these chips are not on par with current or even last gen GPUs, I would not be surprised if china would catch up and even have a much higher incentive to do so, now that other countries try to control their access to key technologies.

I am not saying whether retaining an edge is good or bad or that I have a different answer if one thought it was good. Just curious what you guys think.

trasirinc · 7 days ago

That's assuming they can keep pumping massive capital into every industry that it seeks to circumvent from bans and sanctions. But it appears they have very short runway these days. Just months after the initial tariffs/sanctions from US, Chinese government is enacting multiple tax raising schemes in September to try to stay alive. The first is the mandating that workers and employees cannot opt out of social security contributions. which is around 1500 yuan ($200) per month for one worker. for an average worker that makes 4000 ($600) yuan, it makes no sense. So many companies are deciding to layoff or close up in September. And workers are going back to countryside. The second is the landlord tax that is starting on September 15th. This is due to people not buying real estates anymore and renting instead.

trasirinc commented on New Huawei 96GB GPU e.huawei.com/cn/products/... · Posted by u/elorant

echelon · 7 days ago

Maybe the Chinese can break the CUDA monopoly?

They're the ones writing most of the open source AI code.

trasirinc · 7 days ago

Because it's not just "CUDA" by itself, it's the whole ecosystem.

Most AI developers don't actually use CUDA directly, they use programming libraries like PyTorch that use CUDA under the hood to communicate with the GPU to run tasks in parallel.

CUDA is pretty much the standard and is supported anywhere it's relevant.

Just creating an alternative is pretty meaningless if it isn't actually supported anywhere.

Adding support isn't easy, and there's also stability issues, bugs, etc. People want something that works and is reliable (= CUDA, since it's battle-tested).

That's the same flawed argument that people have used to expect Huawei to replace Android/EUV.

trasirinc commented on Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything wsj.com/business/retail/t... · Posted by u/JumpCrisscross

jennyholzer · 7 days ago

Why are you so well-versed in these anti-Chinese narratives? Your message reads like you're a victim of anti-Chinese propaganda.

trasirinc · 7 days ago

I'm from China. I know what real numbers and news come out of China.

trasirinc commented on Six months into tariffs, businesses have no idea how to price anything wsj.com/business/retail/t... · Posted by u/JumpCrisscross

haunter · 7 days ago

In the end it's the biggest leopard ate my face moment ever:

China has very high growth momentum that surpasses American living standards soon, and not long before it will surpass American security standards too. China's purchasing power is probably more comfortable than most western countries, with extensive housing and high speed rail and electric cars etc. When a country becomes rich, inevitably other countries ask for their help. That's why China's growth must be curbed, fast > tariff them to their death or so. But I really don't think it will work at all. And personally I don't even think it's a good idea at all to begin with.

trasirinc · 7 days ago

What numbers are you seeing for the surpassing living standards? Their gpd per capita flatlined in 2024 at $13k. That's with only 80M of their citizens making above $2000/month. The bulk of their citizens make less than $100/month, and there's a declining middle class of around 200M that makes around $800/month. But they have high youth unemployment rate (>40%), there's a massive layoff wave coming in September with the mandatory social security payment from companies, and their recent factory wages have plummeted to $2/hour, barely survivable in first tier cities.

Before everyone jumps in with GDP per capital with PPP, what quality at that low price means is tofu dreg buildings, cancerous food items, waist high flooding every summer in cities, ghost buildings, and unsafe water (recently one of the most prosperous city, Hangzhou, had sewage seeped into the water for weeks, which the local government denied responsibility).