not true. If you see companies like microsoft, salesforce etc., they are selling AI to replace all sales, support, marketing, developer ... jobs.
AI is a big factor.
They're selling the promise of AI, not the real deal (yet)
Readit NewsIt doesn't have to be either-or. I think there are a bunch of factors all contributing to the current state of developer job market:
1. Rise of remote work: sure, it was there in some form. But prior to 2020, state of the remote work tools was abysmal. The prevalent culture was also about hiring the whole teams. After covid, remote work tools are far better. And companies learned to onboard one new remote hire at a time which over time is now allowing them to replace US workers with cheap overseas ones at a manageable pace.
2. end of cheap money - if the risk free rate is 4-5%, the demand from risky ventures like software startups is going to go up. So funding has dried up at the margins.
3. rise in the discount rate - related to the previous point, the discount rate one applies to investments have gone up. That means startups valued at 1B are now valued only at a few hundred millions. So to avoid down or flat rounds, startups have to cut costs drastically and show profitability to justify a higher valuation. Cue all the job cuts, belt tightening and death marches with a skeleton crew.
4. rise of AI - AI is helping with productivity of coding and non-coding tasks. It is also acting as an excuse for #3 when laying people off.
In my experience, all these are meaningful factors for the abysmal state of the developer market.
Definitely agree that it's not mutually exclusive, however I think 4 is likely orders of magnitude less impactful than the others...so far. Which isn't to say the effects won't start to magnify soon.
I think most of the trends we are seeing started around 2022, but if AI delivers on its promise things may accelerate in the coming years.
IMO it's far too early for "AI" to have had a meaningful effect on Software company hiring. A more plausible explanation for me is that between roughly 2012 and 2022, there was a tremendous increase in the supply of SWE talent (via undergraduate CS programs massively increasing enrollment, boot camps, immigration, etc), fueled primarily by ZIRP. On the demand side, ZIRPy VC funding primarily went to bullshit Crypto and (to a lesser extent) bullshit Metaverse companies, most of which have not panned out, meaning there is a dearth of late stage and newly public companies to hire said talent.
Honestly, that's a great question
I think I might be doing a self plug here, so pardon me but I am pretty sure that I can create something like a link shortener which can last essentially permanent, it has to do with crypto (I don't adore it as an investment, I must make it absolutely clear)
But basically I have created nanotimestamps which can embed some data in nano blockchain and that data could theoretically be a link..
Now the problem is that the link would atleast either be a transaction id which is big or some sort of seed passphrase...
So no, its not as easy as some passphrase but I am pretty sure that nano isn't going to dissolve, last time I checked it has 60 nodes and anyone can host a node and did I mention all of this for completely free.. (I mean, there is no gas fees in nano, which is why I picked it)
I am not associated with the nano team and it would actually be sort of put their system on strain if we do actually use it in this way but I mean their system allows for it .. so why not cheat the system
Tldr: I am pretty sure that I can build one which can really survive a really long time, decentralized based link shortener but the trade off is that the shortened link might actually become larger than original link. I can still think of a way to actually shorten it though
Like I just thought that nano has a way to catalogue transactions in time so its theoretically possible that we can catalogue some transactions from time, and so basically its just the nth number of transaction and that n could be something like 1000232
and so it could be test.org/1000232 could lead to something like youtube rickroll. Could theoretically be possible, If literally anybody is interested, I can create a basic prototype since I am just so proud really that I created some decent "innovation" in some space that I am not even familiar with (I ain't no crypto wizard)
1) i think this means every link is essentially public? probably not ideal.
2) you don't actually want things to be permanent - users will inevitably shorten stuff strings didn't mean to / want to, so there needs to be a way to scrub them.
tqi commented on Face it: you're a crazy person experimental-history.com/... · Posted by u/surprisetalk
> This is why people get so brain-constipated when they try to choose a career, and why they often pick the wrong one
Does everyone (or even most people) have a "right" career? I actually think this framing itself is harmful. If comparison is the thief of joy, then what could be worse than believing that there is some yet to be discovered perfect-for-you career out that you are missing.
tqi commented on Developing our position on AI recurse.com/blog/191-deve... · Posted by u/jakelazaroff
> Thoughtful, extremely capable programmers disagree on what models can do today, and whether or not they’re currently useful.
Is anyone John Henry-ing this question and having parallel teams build the same product at the same time?
tqi commented on Data brokers are selling flight information to CBP and ICE eff.org/deeplinks/2025/07... · Posted by u/exiguus
People don't grasp how easy it is to build data models like this even without privileged first-party data access.
In 2012 I created a killer prototype that demonstrated that you could accurately reconstruct most people's flight history at scale from social media and/or ad data. Probably the first of its kind. This has been possible for a long time.
A quick sketch of how it worked:
We filtered out all spatiotemporal edges in the entity graph with an implied speed of <300 kilometers per hour or <200 kilometers distance, IIRC. This was the proxy for "was on a plane". It also implicitly provided the origin and destination.
These edges can be correlated with both public flight data and maintenance IoT data from jet engines to put entities on a specific flight. People overlook the extent to which innocuous industrial IoT data can be used as a proxy for relationships in unrelated domains.
In rare cases, there was more than one plausible commercial flight. Because we had their flight history, we assumed in these cases that it was the primary airline they had used in the past, either generally or for that specific origin and destination. This almost always resolved perfectly.
This was impressively effective and it didn't require first-party data from airlines or particularly sophisticated analytics. Space and time are the primary keys of reality.
Presumably ICE is trying to determine what cities / countries a person has visited and when, ie your starting point.
tqi commented on Axon’s Draft One is designed to defy transparency eff.org/deeplinks/2025/07... · Posted by u/zdw
Do you read EULAs all the way through every time?
People just LGTM rubber stamp nearly everything they're given, as it's time efficient in the now.
Do you think there is a difference between a civilian driver ignoring the routine maintenance schedule for their car and a professional pilot ignoring the maintenance schedule for their plane?
tqi commented on Google can now read your WhatsApp messages neowin.net/guides/google-... · Posted by u/bundie
This is concerning but I am telling my Whatsapp user friends about the access to their immense data that Meta has and they should be concerned. But even the friends in tech, who lead massive product development, feel there is nothing concerning.
What do you tell them the risk is?
From the article though:
> But researchers found most use cases were limited to boosting individual productivity rather than improving a company’s overall profits.
What does that even mean?
[1] Website: https://nanda.media.mit.edu/, FAQ: https://projnanda.github.io/projnanda/#/faq_nanda