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tkahnoski commented on “Normal” engineers are the key to great teams   spectrum.ieee.org/10x-eng... · Posted by u/jnord
noosphr · a year ago
>However, at the end of the day, there is an input and output and compute and memory needed to run the thing and if we look at that we realize, we never actually left the bounded physical realm and we can still engineer software systems against real world constraints. We can judge its efficiency and breaking points.

This is a common sense view of computation that's unfortunately wrong.

The simplest counter example is the busy beaver program: with as little as 12 states we have saturated the computational capabilities of the universe, but it looks completely safe and sane for the first few states you would be testing against.

You may call it pathological, and you'd be right, but the point is that you never know under which rug a function that takes more computation than the universe can supply is hiding.

By comparison power electronics engineers don't have to formally prove that they didn't accidentally include a nuclear power plant in their e-scooter design.

tkahnoski · a year ago
I think you just made my point. If designing an eScooter you'd look at available power needed across the problem space. Even more so you might put in a safety features like a temperature monitor so electronic components don't fail because someone decided to go up a steep 12 mile mountain path and overheat the battery.

If I was designing a software system, I could introduce a time constraint. An imagined conversation: "How long will it take to get an answer? Between half a second and the heat death of the universe. OK. Can we just issue a timeout error after 1 second?"

This is putting controls in place so the system doesn't exceed its constraints and although hypothetical it might be able to do a job for any input, it can't because we haven't been able to find a more efficient solution for certain known and unknown scenarios.

tkahnoski commented on “Normal” engineers are the key to great teams   spectrum.ieee.org/10x-eng... · Posted by u/jnord
noosphr · a year ago
Software is different.

All other engineering disciplines are ultimately limited to building things in (at most) 3 euclidean dimensions. There is only so much junk you can hide in a finite volume of space.

Code by comparison lives in hyperbolic space [0] and you can hide _anything_ in such a space without it being obvious. This is exemplified by the unpleasant discovery all of us have had of a supposedly peripheral folder holding source code called all over the code base and the near impossibility of moving it in a location that makes sense for it without having to refactor the whole code base.

People, including myself, have a seriously bad intuition just how much volume there is in a space which grows at least exponentially.

The closest discipline to software engineering is mathematics and that has an even worse track record. There's the folklore about half of all math papers giving the wrong proof for the right conclusion. By comparison software engineering only gets catastrophic bugs less than every other time a program is run.

[0] All trees are natively embedded in some hyperbolic space of whatever curvature matches the average number of children per node, and all code can be ultimately represented as a tree.

tkahnoski · a year ago
I think maybe this misses the mark. Yes software can lead to unbounded complexity unlikely many physics based engineering disciplines.

However, at the end of the day, there is an input and output and compute and memory needed to run the thing and if we look at that we realize, we never actually left the bounded physical realm and we can still engineer software systems against real world constraints. We can judge its efficiency and breaking points.

What's very different is the cost to change the system to do something new and that's where this unbounded complexity blows up in our face.

tkahnoski commented on Ancient switch to soft food gave us overbite–the ability to pronounce 'f's,'v'   science.org/content/artic... · Posted by u/NoRagrets
iwsk · a year ago
...so mewing is real and it is not a coincidence that it's suddenly a thing now?
tkahnoski · a year ago
Mewing is something intended to address this, but evidence isn't there. Everyone wants a non-invasive solution rather than jaw expanders, braces, retainers etc.. so depending on where your bias, you might be against "Big-Ortho" and try this, or you could invest in proven orthodontics.
tkahnoski commented on Nuclear fusion: WEST beats the world record for plasma duration   cea.fr/english/Pages/News... · Posted by u/mpweiher
sightbroke · a year ago
At the risk of coming off as a nay-sayer, let's say engineering hurtles related to fusion power generation is overcome. How is the presumably high upfront capital costs going to compare with the ROI?

That is, it would seem likely that fusion power would be costly to build. It would also seem apparent that if it were to fulfil its promise then the power it generates is sold at or less than the current amount. That would then seem to imply a lengthily time to make a return on the initial investment. Or am I missing something else with this equation?

tkahnoski · a year ago
There's definitely an existential question around if fusion will ever be able to beat renewables plus batteries, but who knows with our energy demands ever increasing at some point renewables may hit a breaking point in land cost.

I'm generally pro-publicly funded research. There is not any direct ROI on say the LHC, but it does fund advanced manufacturing and engineering work that might enable other more practical industrial applications. The ROI might be a century away.

tkahnoski commented on Car dealerships revert to pens and paper after cyberattacks on software provider   apnews.com/article/car-de... · Posted by u/achristmascarl
mrfairrunheight · 2 years ago
they do. there are a couple of large competitors and several small ones. the reason there are not more boils down to: a high barrier to entry, since software suites (not individual products) are often needed, and the high cost of retraining folks using older systems in order to use your new, better product.
tkahnoski · 2 years ago
Another way of looking at it is CDK's main product is an ERP tailored to the automotive industry. These aren't systems with short setup times and there is major risk to trying to replatform you're accounting system. How do you pull of an ERP migration while you're existing one is down? Further, almost everything the dealer does from inventory management to service is integrated to this system of record either directly or via data integrations.

Some of the smaller mom-and-pop stores just use small business accounting systems like quickbooks but those get pretty tedious to maintain with any sizable number of sales or employees per month.

tkahnoski commented on Does fermion doubling make the universe not a computer?   scottaaronson.blog/?p=770... · Posted by u/nsoonhui
tkahnoski · 2 years ago
Lately I've wondered... what if this flow of time wasn't true? at least not at universe scale? Messier than just gravitational affects but actual weird topography in time?

There is nothing scientific about this conjecture, simply a thought I haven't had time to fully contemplate. What if there were loops and turns such that light and energy from distant galaxies would loop back around not just in space but in time creating weird feedback loops.

tkahnoski · 2 years ago
A few quick googles... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closed_timelike_curve as usual early thinkers on General Relativity were already going down this road.
tkahnoski commented on Does fermion doubling make the universe not a computer?   scottaaronson.blog/?p=770... · Posted by u/nsoonhui
treprinum · 2 years ago
Concept of time and eternity - we are in time that flows in one direction, everything has a beginning and end. A being in eternity outside time views all moments of time all at once (like all individual pictures of a movie), hence no origin is necessary/defined in eternity.
tkahnoski · 2 years ago
Lately I've wondered... what if this flow of time wasn't true? at least not at universe scale? Messier than just gravitational affects but actual weird topography in time?

There is nothing scientific about this conjecture, simply a thought I haven't had time to fully contemplate. What if there were loops and turns such that light and energy from distant galaxies would loop back around not just in space but in time creating weird feedback loops.

tkahnoski commented on Low-frequency sound can reveal that a tornado is on its way   bbc.com/future/article/20... · Posted by u/billybuckwheat
dylan604 · 2 years ago
>I consider myself a very weather aware person living near the edge of tornado alley in Dallas,

Howdy neighbor! Do you find it mildy calming when looking at the weather warning tweets from Delkus while his avatar is cheersing you with a cocktail?

This tech might provide another layer of confidence for tornadoes, but as you mentioned, the hail is another story in and of itself. I have mixed feelings about the "tornado sirens" being used for hail/severe weather without a tornado. I lean towards it being a good idea. I'm actually in Dallas, not one of the suburbs, so we tend to get protected from tornadoes by the infamous heat dome. Earlier this year, the sirens went off for hail and they were talking about softball size hail and larger west in Arlington. So, yeah, people definitely need to know about that. However, it does remind me of the Hawaii debate on using the tsunami sirens to warn of the fire, but it is totally different in that this hail/tornado siren both mean to seek shelter and not a confusing run towards the danger.

tkahnoski · 2 years ago
Ditto as to living in "Dallas" proper.

Tweets from Delkus and the Fort Worth National Weather Service are the main way I pay attention to new developments. Typically stuff will get posted there before live TV coverage starts. There's almost always a graphic posted of what the window is they expect for storms to form which helps me understand what I need to pay attention to.

I have a relative in another state whose a meteorologist and he doesn't have nearly as much fun as Delkus's team does online.

As far as over-indexing on preparedness goes, there has been at least twice our kids school has dismissed early in light of a severe weather forecast, however they do this several hours ahead of time (parents can't react that fast anyways). Only for the storms to be your more normal strength T-storm by the time carline starts. I can certainly appreciate the intent, but it's almost never that certain what's going to happen unless the storms are already popping up.

tkahnoski commented on Low-frequency sound can reveal that a tornado is on its way   bbc.com/future/article/20... · Posted by u/billybuckwheat
dylan604 · 2 years ago
"They rarely have much warning, but it is often enough to save lives."

I really wish this trope would go away. If you live in an area prone to tornadoes and you "have no warning", then you're just not paying attention. We know tornadoes exist. We know where they tend to frequently occur. The local weather stations in those areas are pretty damn good with warnings. We know days ahead of time that the conditions will be right for potential activity. We can now see potential tornadoes before they are formed. We can track their paths with neighborhood cross street precision.

Nevermind the fact that there's a pretty good indicator when the sky turns dark and the weather changes. Thunder and lightning and wind are essentially the knocking on the door. It's not like it's a sunny day and a tornado just pops out of the sky to say hello.

To say no warning just means they are not paying attention. I don't know what the tornado activity is like where the BBC is from, but it is woefully out of date.

tkahnoski · 2 years ago
Watches are common, indicators are common, warnings tend to be very last minute.

I consider myself a very weather aware person living near the edge of tornado alley in Dallas, I get all the alerts, generally keep a strong watch on radar development and storm arrival times (hail is just as much as a concern as tornadoes).

In general if there is a detection of a rotation or a strong hail core on radar, emergency sirens will go on near the affected area. Sometimes it just happens too fast, so if there is another method like the article sounds to detect a strong potential a tornado is forming it will absolutely reduce casualties.

As an example I lived through in October 2019. There was one hour between a Tornado Watch being issued and when the EF2/EF3 hit the ground. Watches generally last a long time and cover a large area so they aren't particularly helpful to me other than to indicate to 'check the radar on the regular'.

Because I was already glued to my phone I saw the warning right away, I was able to text friends that lived a few minutes from the tornado touchdown point that there was a tornado right next to them. Their sirens hadn't gone off yet, by the time they had taken shelter they heard the sirens and the wind kicking up right after. They got off light on damage compared to the rest of their neighborhood but I can't imagine someone out walking their dog or running an errand and then only having 1 or 2 minutes to find shelter. I'm still amazed this thing didn't cause more injuries particularly in the early minutes when the news crews and meteorologist were playing catch up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_October_20...

Maybe this tech would have helped give a clearer indicator versus the usual approach of waiting to see something on radar or manually spotting it. Or maybe some storms will just form too fast to have any useful indicators.

tkahnoski commented on Toyota recalls nearly 1.9M RAV4s to fix batteries that can cause a fire   cnbc.com/2023/11/02/toyot... · Posted by u/thm
pkulak · 2 years ago
Maybe the fix isn't fixing the human error, but making it impossible.
tkahnoski · 2 years ago
Particularly since battery replacement is one of the easier DIY auto repairs many people take on.

u/tkahnoski

KarmaCake day302January 25, 2010View Original