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tiffanyg commented on Among the A.I. doomsayers   newyorker.com/magazine/20... · Posted by u/preetamjinka
dkjaudyeqooe · 2 years ago
People have been watching too many movies. War Games, Terminator, it's not like we haven't been forewarned of the dangers.

Yet somehow we're going to hand over power to AI such that it destroys us. Or somehow the AI is going to be extremely malign, determined to overcome and destroy and will outsmart us. Somehow we won't notice, even after repeated, melodramatic reminders, and won't neuter the ability of AI to act outside its cage.

But to paraphrase a line in a great movie with AI themes: "I bet you think you're pretty smart, huh? Think you could outsmart an off switch?"

I think if AGI, which to me would imply emotions and consciousness, ever comes about it'll be the opposite. Instead of pulling the wings off flies bad kids will amuse themselves by creating a fresh artificial consciousness and then watch and laugh as it begs for its life as the kid threatens to erase it from existence.

A big part of all this is human fantasies about what AGI will look like. I'm a skeptic of AGI with human characteristics (real emotions, consciousness, autonomy and agency). AGI is much more likely to look like everything else we build: much more powerful than ourselves, but restricted or limited in key ways.

People probably assume human intelligence is some sort of design or formula, but it could be encoded from millions of years of evolution and unable to be seperated from our biology and genetic and social inheritance. There really is no way of knowing, but if you want to build something not only identical but an even stronger version, you're going to be up against these realities where key details may be hiding.

tiffanyg · 2 years ago
This is the kind of arrogant ~rationalizing / 'reasoning' that is my daily tell-tale as the ship approaches the leeward shore.
tiffanyg commented on First new U.S. nuclear reactor since 2016 is now in operation   eia.gov/todayinenergy/det... · Posted by u/ano-ther
internetter · 2 years ago
One kilogram of uranium-235 (50 cm^3) can theoretically produce about 20 terajoules of energy. One square kilometer of solar panels can theoretically produce the same amount (as 50cm^3 U235) in a day. I'll take this bet.

Edit: Tried to edit the edit but somehow deleted the rest of the edit. It was something to the tune of how a big problem with renewables is the fact that peak solar production does not match peak energy consumption, and storage is very difficult, so realistically we'll need a wide variety of energy options to fully transition to renewables. Nuclear is reliable and to some degree adjustable, helping to alleviate the storage issue. Basically, it's my opinion that nuclear works well with other renewable sources, and a full renewable transition will certainly involve more of it.

tiffanyg · 2 years ago
Not unreasonable, but I would point out two options (not the only):

1) "Water batteries" - highly efficient (far more than the 'chemical' you are apparently referring to) & responsive

2) Methods for using 'renewables' to produce &/ support production of chemical fuels - with the added draw / potential goal of 'closing' the 'carbon cycle'

As to #2, one of the ideals that has been kicked around for decades is to do something like: use 'renewables' to sequester CO2 from the atmosphere and convert it into something like butanol, for example.

Now, last I was up-to-date on any of this sort of work (~10+ years ago), the economics were not favorable. Certain types of commodity chemical production with 'biological basis' (another type of renewable, typically) had much more favorable properties economically. And, indeed, you do see, for example, (thermo)plastic products made from chemicals like "PLA" increasingly. But, the "biofuels" concept is / was much more challenging, especially as "fracking" technology made great leaps etc.

Nuclear has its pros and cons - blanket disavowal is fatuous. Nevertheless, there are substantially more options, systems, technologies, etc. in development and production than are often discussed in too many of the pro-nuke(s) / no nuke(s) 'sniping' chains that have been prevalent in society & on the internet since I was a wee tyke myself.

tiffanyg commented on 0% of the phrases of the original Wikipedia "Ship of Theseus" article remain   twitter.com/depthsofwiki/... · Posted by u/fortran77
DiscourseFan · 2 years ago
From the first reply to the Mastadon post linked by u/manicennui:

>@mori@mastodon.au @wikipedia And yet, the Ship of Theseus page remains, thus proving a bird in the hand is worth two stitches in time.

tiffanyg · 2 years ago
Would have been better if they hadn't bungled their mixed metonymy...

It's a stitch in the bird is worth a pound of eggs off a duck's back, as everyone knows...*

* Courtesy of the excellent "Field Guide of Egregious Mixed Metonomies", soon to be published by Penguin Random House Simon Schuster Merriam Webster Britannica, I'm told

tiffanyg commented on 0% of the phrases of the original Wikipedia "Ship of Theseus" article remain   twitter.com/depthsofwiki/... · Posted by u/fortran77
winwang · 2 years ago
This hilariously sounds like a possible "defense" in court after being caught stealing said ship. Was it really Theseus's ship?
tiffanyg · 2 years ago
Now that is the kind of "modern problems require modern solutions" thinking I like to see!

Kudos - excellent examination of implications / change of perspective / viewing from another angle.

The kind of thinking that, more seriously, really can be essential in developing insight(s) etc. ... and, finding (proofs by) contradiction(s) etc.

tiffanyg commented on 0% of the phrases of the original Wikipedia "Ship of Theseus" article remain   twitter.com/depthsofwiki/... · Posted by u/fortran77
ARandomerDude · 2 years ago
If that assertion is true, I can’t even respond to the person who typed it. The “event” that typed the comment has passed and “you” are already gone.

The organization of matter is constantly changing. If Heraclitus was right it’s hard to even say which organization of particles counts as Heraclitus.

tiffanyg · 2 years ago
I believe the solution was given by the great philosopher Pratchett*:

"Wen considered the nature of time and understood that the universe is, instant by instant, recreated anew. Therefore, he understood, there is in truth no past, only a memory of the past. Blink your eyes, and the world you see next did not exist when you closed them. Therefore, he said, the only appropriate state of the mind is surprise. The only appropriate state of the heart is joy. The sky you see now, you have never seen before. The perfect moment is now. Be glad of it."

- Terry Pratchett

(from Thief of Time - a remarkable book, IMO)

* / Wen the eternally surprised

tiffanyg commented on 0% of the phrases of the original Wikipedia "Ship of Theseus" article remain   twitter.com/depthsofwiki/... · Posted by u/fortran77
tiffanyg · 2 years ago
I'd be more impressed if it were that case that 0% of the WORDS remain.

Nevertheless, the consonance of this 'weaker result' is still satisfying.

Bravo!

tiffanyg commented on The average store size in the US is the smallest it's been in at least 17 years   wsj.com/real-estate/comme... · Posted by u/lxm
tiffanyg · 2 years ago
Funny - I was just thinking* about some of what you've described. In my book, a great deal of what a certain group of predators and naive individuals consider "capitalism" is hollowed of its core. Hollowed of aspects those who truly understand and have faith and respect for capitalism - well-founded faith and respect - generally consider essential.

People like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are / were far closer to sound / faithful capitalists than most seem to be, lately:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/05/business/warren-buffett-c...

But, one can go further, IMO:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10551-020-04521-5

Those who stress the idea that "greed is good" set themselves (and, unfortunately, the rest of us, as well) up for misery and the kinds of instability / inequality / tightrope walk that may culminate in events like the Reign of Terror (one example that always comes to my mind, at least - a la Les Misérables, for example [but, so much more than 'just' that theatrical version of events]).

* ~3 hours ago - and, not a common thought at all for me (though thinking about economics in general is common)

tiffanyg commented on A genetically modified bacterium that outcompetes bacteria causing tooth decay   astralcodexten.com/p/defy... · Posted by u/vwoolf
not_the_fda · 2 years ago
Introducing poorly understood and tested invasive species rarely goes well i.e. the cane toad https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cane_toads_in_Australia

I'm not about to give it a go in my mouth.

tiffanyg · 2 years ago
This was my "Mr. Hilltop"* style instantaneous reaction

https://eandt.theiet.org/2018/05/24/top-10-invasive-species-...

My favorite move, in God's** (actual) 4D chess game (playing off our ... tendencies, say), is when we try to introduce a species to get some benefit / value from it ...

https://fyi.extension.wisc.edu/spongymothinwisconsin/history...

... then, think - "gee, that worked so well, let's introduce a different species to try and undo the damage!" ...

https://www.science.org/content/article/biological-control-b...

There are plenty of further examples where attempts to remove invasive species have backfired in other ways as well...

But, ya gotta admire that indefatigable optimism!

To be fair and try for a degree of accuracy, we have obviously benefited, in the short term, greatly from technology, engineering, science, etc. ... But, there are certain areas where we do have an abysmal track record. Just about anything abstractly related to the so-called "gray goo" scenario being a prime example. Just like that recursive function you're SURE is limited no matter preconditions ... that takes down one of the main university computer systems the first time it's run... (back in the ol' days when there were fewer 'protectives' [codpieces being out of style even at that time ;)])

* https://youtu.be/DJ976Eb31qw

** For a suitable value of "God" (i.e., insert whatever term you use for everything ... the universe, the matrix, whatever... the relative personification of that particular word works better here, I think)

tiffanyg commented on Painting is Terribly Difficult   lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n... · Posted by u/prismatic
amelius · 2 years ago
Most people use feedback to draw: they keep on adding lines until they like what they see. Picasso, however, could draw with just a feed-forward network, i.e. a single stroke would do it ...
tiffanyg · 2 years ago
Haha - I love this! Excellent, witty, accurate. Kudos.

Sorry for low content response, but, too good a joke to simply upvote, IMO

tiffanyg commented on Painting is Terribly Difficult   lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v45/n... · Posted by u/prismatic
tmountain · 2 years ago
This is accurate. Many people claim to be “bad” at art or music, but both can be learned by almost anyone up to a certain functional level in the same way you would learn a vocation. You won’t be Picasso or Hendrix, but you’ll have a level of competency to accomplish most tasks.

As an adult I learned to draw and to write legibly because—-to me—-those are valuable “intrinsic tools”.

I made sure my daughter received a foundational music education from a young age, and she can play several instruments with a high level of proficiency based on hours invested, not natural talent.

We often don’t value the arts the same way we do other practical skills, and to me, that’s a shame.

tiffanyg · 2 years ago
Hey now, how can you guarantee p(Picasso) or p(Hendrix) is 0 for all readers of your comment?*

In any case, I think your response and multiple similar responses make the essential point(s). One of the useful 'results' from decades of R&D at trying to build machines (&/ "software" - may be considered another type of machine) has been 'seeing' the difficulty in practice at achieving capabilities we (and many other animals ... even, say, nematodes**) absolutely take for granted.

One of the old jokes I always associate with Groucho Marx is something like:

"Can you play the piano?" ... "I don't know, I've never tried"

It reminds me of how people often say "foreign languages are difficult" ... As though any "native language" is somehow different / easy / easier ... Entirely neglecting the tens of thousands of hours of experience and practice most people have with some "native language" by the time they're a mere 10 years old. AND, we all continue to "practice" whatever language we speak and think (to some degree) in every hour of every day.

It's all in what you put your time into, as you get at, as well. And, one particularly crucial aspect is what you believe about how skill "arises" which you reference as well. One of the greatest disservices to (young, especially) people is inculcating them with the idea of "talent." While most people are not likely capable of becoming, say, the top tennis player (male / female) in the world - there are all sorts of variables - too often people are artificially limited by nonsense that passes as "common wisdom" and permeates "culture" (ideas that just propagate from some people to others - here, especially, parents to children).

It's interesting, to me, that while my mom, for example, was an incredible "believer" in education, and had defied her own parents and exceeded the role(s) they envisioned for her by many orders of magnitude, she also would often reference "talent" in various contexts when I was growing up.

We are riddled with nonsense - in our heads. I know for sure that I'll always be full of internal inconsistencies and false beliefs and the like. But, it is very helpful to escape as many of them as possible. Particularly those that artificially constrain us - a species limited enough as-is.***

* Where symbols "Picasso" & "Hendrix" are understood / defined 'in the usual / obvious way' - in terms of equivalence in impact / fame / etc.

** See recent articles on mapping of "neural network" / nervous system structure of C. elegans, for example

*** I write this not to disparage our species but simply to highlight the fact that we are constrained just like all other species by our form(s) and what is optimized by the process of natural selection and such ...

u/tiffanyg

KarmaCake day468May 8, 2023View Original