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tifellow commented on Microsoft Wins Pentagon’s $10B Contract   nytimes.com/2019/10/25/te... · Posted by u/aaronbrethorst
H8crilA · 6 years ago
For example:

Separate the power system -> people's perception about Texas independence increases -> time passes -> let's separate something new, after all we're Texas, we get special treatment. Perception intertwined with action, so that you can't tell what comes first.

Reflexivity is by no means restricted to securities markets. It's an incredibly broadly applicable concept.

Also, in securities markets it's not just that price goes up so more people buy because the price has gone up, so price goes up even more. It's far far worse than that. It's that (for example) stock prices go up, therefore consumer/executive/banks confidence increases, therefore more credit and more spending in the economy, therefore higher corporate profits, therefore higher stock prices. The point is that it affects reality beyond just the securities markets, it affects the "fundamentals" too. I.e. you can't even trust something like a P/E ratio.

tifellow · 6 years ago
Regarding valuations, I hate using price ratios. But, being able to determine the "true" price of something is almost practically useless unless there are other people that at some point in time will agree with you. Otherwise the faux-price is what you will buy and sell at.

Regarding applying reflexivity to Texans, you'd be better off to recognize the long-standing, consistent cultural values of individualism and independence.

tifellow commented on Microsoft Wins Pentagon’s $10B Contract   nytimes.com/2019/10/25/te... · Posted by u/aaronbrethorst
meddlepal · 6 years ago
Core to many Texans identity is a belief that someday Texas is going to secede from the Union again and become its own independent country.

Don't get me wrong, I love Texas and I love many of the Texans I've met for being some of the chillest, most down to earth, pragmatic and welcoming people I have ever met, but they are a bit weird about this particular issue sometimes.

tifellow · 6 years ago
Is it really that weird to believe that one day the country might fall apart? Wouldn't it be weirder to believe that the country will last forever? There is absolutely zero historical precedence for the later belief.
tifellow commented on “We have no reason to believe 5G is safe”   blogs.scientificamerican.... · Posted by u/bookofjoe
marcosdumay · 6 years ago
Honestly, after a glance at the links, they don't inspire confidence in me either. There are papers about very small changes on very rare types of cancer, measured by proxy on a species where it's common; papers criticizing the critics claiming association with interested parties (what is a perfectly fine thing to claim, but what is it doing in a scientific paper?); and the only wide review I could find claims that the literature has very weak conclusions that are not sufficient to claim any danger.

As usual, it's not the scientists that are wackos, it's the press that is claiming things completely different from what they say. There are proposals for better test equipment that should be taken, but I don't see any other claim for change there.

> At the same time, everybody seems to accept that the chance of getting cancer in your lifetime has risen to about one in three for men and one in five for women.

The wildest of the claims anywhere on the linked papers is a ~10% increase on the rate of one of the rarest types of cancer, so this line of research won't give you the answers you are looking for.

tifellow · 6 years ago
Agree - there's shouldn't be any place for ad hominem attacks in a scientific paper. To me, this is a strong indicator of bias and/or journalistic incompetence.

Maybe it's initially counter-intiutitve, but the rise in the rate of cancer should be expected as lifespans are increased and deaths from other diseases decline. E.g. every male will get prostrate cancer "if" they live long enough.

u/tifellow

KarmaCake day1October 28, 2019View Original