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throwaway4job commented on The U.S. Yield Curve Has Inverted   bloomberg.com/opinion/art... · Posted by u/acdanger
bunderbunder · 7 years ago
Not quite that. The yield for a 5-year note is less than the yield for a 3-year note.

More generally, a yield curve inversion is when the interest rate you earn on short-term debt ends up higher than that of long-term debt of the same quality.

I don't think the issue is that the inversion causes the recession. It's more an indicator of pessimism in the market. It implies that investors think that interest rates are going to get worse, so they look to buy more longer-term bonds in order to try and lock in current yields for a longer period of time. That increases demand for those assets, which drives down their price^H^H^H^H^H yields.

throwaway4job · 7 years ago
Not quite that.

Bond prices go down when interest rates go up. As such, an investor who thinks that interest rates will go _up_ will reallocate from long-term bonds to short-term bonds, rather than the opposite as you stated.

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u/throwaway4job

KarmaCake day97October 2, 2016View Original