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theologic commented on AI is propping up the US economy   bloodinthemachine.com/p/t... · Posted by u/mempko
tripletao · 21 days ago
> Do note that peak spending on rail roads eventually amounted to ~20 percent of the US GDP in the 19th century.

Has anyone found the source for that 20%? Here's a paper I found:

> Between 1848 and 1854, railroad investment, in these and in preceding years, contributed to 4.31% of GDP. Overall, the 1850s are the period in which railroad investment had the most substantial contribution to economic conditions, 2.93% of GDP, relative to 2.51% during the 1840s and 2.49% during the 1830s, driven by the much larger investment volumes during the period.

https://economics.wm.edu/wp/cwm_wp153.pdf

The first sentence isn't clear to me. Is 4.31 > 2.93 because the average was higher from 1848-1854 than from 1850-1859, or because the "preceding years" part means they lumped earlier investment into the former range so it's not actually an average? Regardless, we're nowhere near 20%.

I'm wondering if the claim was actually something like "total investment over x years was 20% of GDP for one year". For example, a paper about the UK says:

> At that time, £170 million was close to 20% of GDP, and most of it was spent in about four years.

https://www-users.cse.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/mania18.pdf

That would be more believable, but the comparison with AI spending in a single year would not be meaningful.

theologic · 21 days ago
By the way it's always nice when somebody actually tries to double check somebody else's research especially when you hear numbers that seemingly just sound crazy. Maybe another factoid, GDP or GNP for all practical purposes wasn't rigorously done by the government until about 1944. I believe a large part of our viewpoints on what happened in the 1800s is primarily based upon census data. But obviously if you're trying to measure a 7 year event Using census that happens every 10 years, there's going to be a lot of gap in the whisker chart.
theologic commented on GLP-1 agonists (Wegovy, Ozempic,) cause disproportionate muscle loss   ft.com/content/094cbf1f-c... · Posted by u/hilux
theologic · a year ago
George Yancopoulos has a reputation for being unconventional (or perhaps outlandish to some). I would suggest that before he is taken seriously, Regeneron should publish a weight loss whitepaper explaining his position. At face value, it makes no sense to suggest that GLP-1 have some latent issues that goes beyond normal muscle loss as per the normal behavior for any weight loss.

Strength exercise are the normal suggestion to preserve muscle mass, and I don't believe there is any research showing this would not be effective with GLP-1 drugs.

An unconventional approach would be to take a GLP1 drug and ephedrine, which has been shown in many studies over 40 years to preserve muscle mass during calorie restriction. However, the drug is dirt cheap, not patentable for this common use, and therefore not of interest to any pharma company.

A recent meta analysis of ephedrine is here: https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8247/14/11/1198

theologic commented on Google Illuminate: Books and papers turned into audio   illuminate.google.com/hom... · Posted by u/leblancfg
phemartin · a year ago
You may enjoy the product I've been working on...[0] it lets you listen to articles and subscribe to any website.

[0] https://playtext.app

theologic · a year ago
Cool app. The biggest issue for me is the voice sounds very much like the typical system voice apps, when we are seeing such leaps and bounds in the voice quality. But your interface is simple and nice.
theologic commented on Link to the Current Gartner Hype Cycle for AI [video]   youtube.com/watch?v=qXKYO... · Posted by u/theologic
theologic · a year ago
Chris Howard of Gartner posted his latest AI hype cycle to youtube. The link should take you directly to his overview chart. Of course, details of the chart is all pay for access.

In many ways, I don't like how Gartner type terminology often abstracts from the fundamental technology base, but in reality these terms do give some handle to how AI is talked about in the market.

theologic commented on US’s wealthiest 1% are failing to pay $160bn a year in taxes, report finds   theguardian.com/us-news/2... · Posted by u/paulpauper
siavosh · 4 years ago
I'm reading a book, Money from Nothing, and I'm curious if anyone can point out if this is a flaw in my understanding:

Taxes are not really a means of a federal government raising funds to pay for things, since they can after all print whatever they need, but instead a way to take money out of circulation to help control inflation.

So a thing like war bonds is never for actually financing a war effort, but help control inflation for all the printing that probably is going on.

So tax compliance and tax code is a monetary tool to control inflation/deflation, not a financing/fiscal tool to pay for stuff. To be clear, local/state government can't print their own money obviously, so taxes actually are raised to pay for things.

theologic · 4 years ago
I looked quickly at your book, and it seems that it favors modern monetary theory (or MMT). MMT suggests that we can print money, but to keep inflation from spiraling out of control, we tax very strongly. This is simply one of many viewpoints.
theologic commented on 2021 Ig Nobels   arstechnica.com/science/2... · Posted by u/NKosmatos
theologic · 4 years ago
This was the highlight of my day because the article was written by the head editor-in-chief of my college newspaper. (I was the opinion section editor.) I haven't seen her in 25 years, but thanks to you guys, I get to read a great article and think about old friendships.
theologic commented on On Blankfaces   scottaaronson.com/blog/?p... · Posted by u/science4sail
theologic · 4 years ago
This is similar to Graeber "Bullshit Jobs" model. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs

The wiki entry is a quick read, and he categorizes jobs that really don't improve the world, thus they are Bullshit Jobs that drain the economy. The challenge of course is where to draw the line....

theologic commented on Tell HN: I am donating ~10TB worth of Chia (cryptocurrency) “plots”    · Posted by u/Nextgrid
theologic · 4 years ago
A thought on the ROI: You can buy a plot for $2-3 in some volume. It's 9 plots per TB, so this is 91 plots or so. Value = $180 to $270 approximately to purchase. Self creation is a fraction of this, and the plots needs to be served up with the keys. Then there is the trouble of transferring 10TB. The return can be calculated by going to chiacalculator.com.
theologic commented on Amazon's Controversial 'Hire to Fire' Practice Reveals a Truth About Management   inc.com/jason-aten/amazon... · Posted by u/thunderbong
theologic · 4 years ago
I believe the term "Perverse incentive" applies here. I think many people have heard of the story of the British government trying to get rid of Cobras in Delhi, so they offered a reward for each Cobra tail.

Enterprising people started to breed Cobras for a little extra income. Thus a program designed to get rid of "bad actors" actually bred bad actors.

Various versions of this story have been told. Another famous one is about rat tails having a reward, thus breeding rats became popular.

Write up of the above and some more examples are on Wikipedia.

u/theologic

KarmaCake day172May 2, 2011View Original