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slkdjfalzkdfj commented on An introduction to the theory and practice of poker (2020)   hopkinspokercourse.com/... · Posted by u/Igor_Wiwi
resters · 2 years ago
This is a pretty strong claim to make without evidence.
slkdjfalzkdfj · 2 years ago
Nah, I think GP is spot on. I took a quick look at some of the materials and I would say that they're pretty outdated as far as current understanding of the game goes. It's more in line with how people talked about & thought about the game in the boom era (the 00s) or possibly even earlier, to be honest.

If I were teaching poker in a university setting I would generally work with a bunch of toy games to teach concepts of polarization, MDF, indifference, and so on. Those are the fundamentals of poker theory in the modern environment.

I'll give you a concrete example. In lecture five at 15m he starts talking about donk betting, which is when you lead out with a bet on a street into the aggressor from the previous street instead of checking to them to let them bet (for example, you're the big blind, you call a raise from the button preflop, and then when the flop comes you bet directly yourself instead of checking). He mentions that this is unusual, which is true, because normally you would just check and let the person with the betting lead bet into you if you have a good hand, and so the donk bet is typically weak--but then he goes on to say that advanced players may exploit this perception by donk betting with a strong hand knowing you will interpret it as weak, and then you can exploit that line of thinking, etc.

A more modern view of donk betting is this: the "betting lead" is not anything inherent to the game but just an artifact of the range of hands each person has. Typically when you call preflop from the big blind, you'll have a wider range of hands than the person raising preflop, because they can't raise too wide profitably due to players left to act after them, and you get to both close the action & also get better pot odds on your call from the big blind. Not only do you have a wider range of hands, then, but you also lack the strongest hands (AA, KK etc) because you would have reraised (3bet) them preflop. So overall, on most flops, the preflop raiser will have a stronger range of hands and can thus be expected to "take the lead" betting.

But! There are some flops that can neutralize or even reverse this range advantage. The flop 654 rainbow is now better for the big blind than for an early position (EP) raiser, because the big blind will have many straights, sets, two pairs, and pair+draw hands in their range, while the EP player will generally not have these hands. The EP's big pairs (AA, KK etc) are less strong, and some of their other strong hands preflop like AK or AQs have totally whiffed too.

As a consequence, it is correct for the big blind to have a donk betting strategy in this situation--the way the two ranges interact, the big blind is now incentivized to put money into the pot directly, and in fact, if the big blind does not have a donk betting strategy on this flop, the EP player should respond by virtually never betting themselves. The big blind is incentivized to bet frequently with a small sizing and put pressure on EP's overcards; if you have, say, 86s, and you can get a hand like QJo to fold, that's a pretty decent result on the flop, because QJo has six outs to improve to a better pair.

Anyway, sorry that this example was probably hard to follow if you don't play poker, but it's probably illustrative of some of the ways in which poker theory has evolved over the years--more focus on the specifics of range vs range interactions. There are many more complicated and intricate examples on turns and rivers that solvers are very good at finding but may or may not be obvious to humans.

source: semi-professional online cash game player

slkdjfalzkdfj commented on Sam Altman returns as CEO, OpenAI has a new initial board   openai.com/blog/sam-altma... · Posted by u/davidbarker
627467 · 2 years ago
Did I - in any way - conveyed that Bret is NOT at the board for his qualifications?
slkdjfalzkdfj · 2 years ago
I mean, yes? You claimed that him being on the board has something to do with Elon Musk:

>Either he is here to scare Musk, or - more likely IMO - to act as a Musk lightning rod. Musk takeover part 2?

slkdjfalzkdfj commented on Sam Altman returns as CEO, OpenAI has a new initial board   openai.com/blog/sam-altma... · Posted by u/davidbarker
627467 · 2 years ago
Almost no one is talking about Brett. Either he is here to scare Musk, or - more likely IMO - to act as a Musk lightning rod. Musk takeover part 2?
slkdjfalzkdfj · 2 years ago
Have you guys considered that maybe he's there because he's extremely qualified and extremely well-respected by his peers? It's not some kind of weird power play, he's just lending a hand while they figure out the long-term board composition.
slkdjfalzkdfj commented on Emmett Shear becomes interim OpenAI CEO as Altman talks break down   theverge.com/2023/11/20/2... · Posted by u/andsoitis
alsodumb · 2 years ago
I think Adam D'Angelo has a very strong conflict of interest and shouldn't have been on the board of OpenAI.

I'm sure Quora views took a hit after ChatGPT. Not like Quora was any good before ChatGPT, they just managed to get to the top of Google results for a lot of common questions.

Now, Poe by Quora was trying to go big on custom agents. The GPT Agents announcement on DevDay was a fundamental threat to Poe in many ways.

I'm convinced that Adam D'Angelo probably had some influence on the other two board members too. He should've left the board of OpenAI the moment OpenAI and his own company were competing in the same space.

slkdjfalzkdfj · 2 years ago
Adam was appointed to the OpenAI board in April 2018, long before ChatGPT and Poe. He's always been somewhat interested/involved in AI/ML so the appointment broadly makes sense to me.

Also keep in mind that a year earlier in Spring 2017 Sam Altman led Quora's Series D, after YC previously joined in on Quora's Series C in 2014. So the two of them clearly had some pre-existing relationship.

I don't think OpenAI and Quora (the product) are a serious conflict of interest. You claim "I'm sure Quora views took a hit after ChatGPT" but I really doubt that's true in any meaningful way. Quora's struggles are a separate issue and predate the GPT craze of the last year.

Nor were Poe and OpenAI competitors until recently; Poe was simply building on top of OpenAI models, the same as hundreds of other ventures in the space right now.

However...I do agree that the GPTs announcement two weeks ago now creates a very clear conflict of interest--OpenAI is now competing directly against Poe. And because of that, I agree that Adam probably should leave the board.

The timing also raises the question of whether booting Sam is in any way related to the GPTs launch and to Poe. Perhaps Sam wasn't candid about the fact that they were about to be competing with Adam's company. The whole thing is messy and not a good look and exactly why you try to avoid these conflicts of interest to begin with.

slkdjfalzkdfj commented on Why thinking hard makes us feel tired   nature.com/articles/d4158... · Posted by u/rzk
BurningFrog · 2 years ago
You have to assume anything not tested for (that helps) is used at the top.
slkdjfalzkdfj · 2 years ago
There actually are regular drug tests for professional chess.

The simple fact is that doing any kind of mindsport intensely over an extended period is very draining.

slkdjfalzkdfj commented on Google Street View returns to Germany after 10 Years   androidpolice.com/google-... · Posted by u/gattilorenz
mr_mitm · 3 years ago
I've been seeing current pictures of my house (in Germany) and surrounding towns on Google Street View for at least four years now. They've been uploaded by some third party. No one cared in the slightest. I don't understand why this is news now.
slkdjfalzkdfj · 3 years ago
As all Geoguessr players know, official Street View coverage in Germany was extremely limited and all very old. There was a small amount of coverage in around a dozen or so of the largest cities that dated back to the mid-2000s and that's about it. There's also various bits of crowdsourced unofficial coverage in the country which you are perhaps referring to, but it's very limited. Just go to Google Maps, look at Europe, and grab the Street View person, and you'll see.
slkdjfalzkdfj commented on Duolingo Max, a learning experience powered by GPT-4   blog.duolingo.com/duoling... · Posted by u/atlasunshrugged
aeturnum · 3 years ago
This is interesting because my impression is that LLMs perform poorly on non-english languages[1]. This is likely 'just' a corpus size problem - but it's not like that is going to be fixed any time soon. That said, at least in language instruction there's a lot of meta material that will be helpful. I wonder how Duolingo is detecting when GPT-4 is hallucinating.

[1] https://twitter.com/asmelashteka/status/1630966233217605632

slkdjfalzkdfj · 3 years ago
The Twitter thread you linked is just somebody pointing out poor performance in Tigrinya. That doesn't mean it performs poorly on all non-English languages. It's performing poorly on the languages with little representation in the corpus, but those are also the languages that are least likely to be learned on Duolingo. Duolingo users mainly learn languages like English, Spanish, French, German, etc. and the models do just fine with these languages.

u/slkdjfalzkdfj

KarmaCake day13March 14, 2023View Original