Who knows, maybe couple years down the line the bounds expand, and "some" transforms into "many", maybe even "most" way, way later.
This is the wrong view. It's more like "Soon, everyone will be able to go from idea to a prototype". IMO, there's a different value perception when people can use concrete things even if they are not perfect. This is what I like about end-to-end vibe coding tools. I don't see a non developer using Claude Code but I can totally see them using Github Spark or any similar tool. After that, the question is how can I ensure this person can keep moving forward with the idea.
You know how the average dev will roll their eyes at taking over a maintenance of a "legacy" project. Where "legacy" means anything not written by themselves. Well, there will be a lot more of these maintenance takeovers soon. But instead of taking over the product of another dev agency that got fired / bankrupt / ..., you will take over projects from your marketing department. Apps implemented by the designers. Projects "kickstarted" by the project manager. Codebases at the point antropic / google / openai / ... tool became untenable. Most likely labelled as "just needs a little bit more work".
These LLM tools are amazing for prototypes. Amazing. I could not be anywhere near as productive for churning out prototypes as claude code is, even if I really tried. And these prototypes are great tools for arriving at the true (or at least slightly better) requirements.
Prototypes should get burned when "real" development starts. But they usually are not. And we're going to do much, much more prototyping in very near future.
Because my experience is not at all like that. If I use both Google Translate and ChatGPT on an image, ChatGPT is pretty much always better. It can even translate Japanese hand written menus quite well. With the added benefit of it being able to add context and explain what the dishes are.
With the big commercial offerings like chatgpt I'd fully expect them to work fine, due to the absolutely massive horsepower in use.
I firmly believe you should be able to hit your fingers with a hammer, and in the process learn whether that's a good idea or not :)
As for vendor lock-in, the basic readings get broadcast over bluetooth advertisments, and you can establish connection to get all the data. I have couple of them working nicely with HomeAssistant.
The cost, yeah, I'd love it to be cheaper.
I often think about quitting tech myself, but becoming a full-time lumberjack is certainly not an alternative for me.
But man, if tech goes straight into cyberpunk dystopia but without the cool gadgets, maybe it is the better alternative.