Readit News logoReadit News
sharemywin commented on The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices   quantamagazine.org/the-ga... · Posted by u/isaacfrond
nomilk · 2 months ago
The researcher says

> this strange strategy will maximize your profit. “To me, it was a complete surprise”

It doesn't seem like such a surprise that algorithms that use information about rivals to optimising profit tend to price high.

Consider a small town with two gas stations, you own one. You can set the price (high or low) in the morning and can't change it until the next day. Your goal is to optimise profit for the next 1000 days. On day one you price high (hoping your rival will). But your rival prices low and wins lots of business. On day two, you price high again (hoping your rival will have seen your prices and cooperate). If your rival prices high, you both stay high for the most of the next 998 days (there's some incentive to 'cheat' and price low, but that is easily countered by the rival pricing low). If your rival priced low on day 2, you have to start pricing low too. But occasionally you'll price high to try to 'nudge' your rival to price high to avoid low-low. If they eventually understand, you can both price high for the rest of the 1000 days. Critically, even if stuck at the low-low equilibrium, you'll keep trying to 'nudge' high periodically. The frequency with which you try to 'nudge' will depend on the ratio of profit for high-high vs low-low. If you both make extreme profits when pricing high-high, you have more incentive to 'nudge', but if the difference isn't great, you won't nudge as often.

Seems obvious pricing high will be attempted in proportion to the reward relative to pricing low.

The researchers' conclusion seems reasonable:

> it’s very hard for a regulator to come in and say, ‘These prices feel wrong’”

and

> what can regulators do? Roth admits he doesn’t have an answer.

(i.e. in practical terms, there's no way regulators can police what algorithms sellers use - I can't think of exceptions to this, but perhaps there are some special cases)

sharemywin · 2 months ago
that doesn't even consider the buying the competitor across the street and paying lobbyist to have congress ignore you for the benefit of the consumer because with the combined stores you can gain market efficiencies. of course ignore the price gouging that actually happens.
sharemywin commented on The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices   quantamagazine.org/the-ga... · Posted by u/isaacfrond
friendzis · 2 months ago
> Imagine a town with two widget merchants. Customers prefer cheaper widgets, so the merchants must compete to set the lowest price.

I always found this statement to be rather wishful. Individual lowering of prices makes sense if and only if your competitor is capable of saturating the market. Otherwise, demand elasticity becomes very relevant. Sure, your competitor may take the larger share of the market, but then you can compensate with higher per item profit.

The common wisdom is that in properly functional markets there's enough supply with n-1 market participants, therefore given a market signal of one participant lowering their prices the last one standing without lowering prices gets kicked out of the market, making maintaining prices the losing move. Yet, if the rest of the market does not react to the signal, the one lowering their prices hurts their profits and possibly kicks themselves out of the market. Making price maintenance, and depending on elasticity maybe even jacking of prices, the winning move in the presence of this signal.

Turns out the probability of either move being the winning move is dependent on probability of other market participants colluding/defecting. However, since lowering the prices hurts the profit a rational market participant would conclude that the rest of the market is inclined, even if a little bit, not to lower their prices in reaction given price cutting signal and similarly a bit more inclined to raise the prices given price hike signal.

sharemywin · 2 months ago
if you've ever shopped at Giant Eagle instead of Kroger you'll understand the flaw in the logic.

higher prices usually equals better service, less busy shopping. get in and get out.

so if your time is worth more than your money you aren't sensitive to price at the widget scale. most widgets are bundled with some kind of service.

I bought some printing and it was super cheap but no service not an email not a phone number nothing. not ordering from their again.

sharemywin commented on The Greatness of Text Adventures   entropicthoughts.com/the-... · Posted by u/ibobev
vunderba · 2 months ago
> ASI born 2039 when fusion-powered Michelson lab tried to break the Turing barrier using a 1920s Enigma rotor as randomness seed

These aren't so much plot points as they are markov-driven word salads. As I've mentioned in other I.F. related posts, I'd say that the real value-add in an LLM is the potential to act as a flexible parser that stands between user input and allowable actions within the adventure. So you can finally "get ye flask..."

sharemywin · 2 months ago
I think if you built some kind of game state server it would make a great front end for it. it could even generate the "rooms" as some kind of graph with items, and foes, and descriptions and directions between the rooms. items might need actions to transform or use items.
sharemywin commented on Will Amazon S3 Vectors kill vector databases or save them?   zilliz.com/blog/will-amaz... · Posted by u/Fendy
Fendy · 3 months ago
what do you think?
sharemywin · 3 months ago
it's annoying to me that there's not a doc store with vectors. seems like the vector dbs just store the vectors I think.
sharemywin commented on Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/ForHackernews
marcyb5st · 3 months ago
Replace a significant portion of the workforce reliably (IMHO). And if that happens, I wonder what's next. I mean, if we automate say 30% of jobs these people won't be employable anymore without a drastic change in their careers' trajectories (I mean, they have been automated out of work once, any company would eventually do the same).

When that happens they will end up overcrowding other jobs sectors pushing salaries down for people already in these fields. Once that happens, the lost of purchase power will hit every sector and drag down economies anyway.

So, if I have to summarize my thoughts, we are either in a bubble that will pop and drag down AI related stocks, or it is not a bubble because the tech will actually deliver on what CEOs are touting and there will be high unemployment/lower salaries for many which in turn will mess up other parts of the economy.

Happy to be wrong, but given the hype on AI the winning conditions have to be similarly high, and millions losing their jobs will for sure have huge repercussions.

sharemywin · 3 months ago
I always love the the solution thrown out is we're all going to be plumbers...
sharemywin commented on Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/ForHackernews
MattPalmer1086 · 3 months ago
This is like the dot com bubble. The web was ultimately transformative, but the early days see all kinds of wild things that don't work so well and massive investment in them.

It is genuinely a useful technology. But it can't do everything and we will have to figure out where it works well and where it doesn't

For myself, I am not a huge user of it. But on my personal projects I have:

1) built graphing solutions in JavaScript in a day despite not really knowing the language or the libraries. This would have taken me weeks (elapsed) rather than one Saturday.

2) finished a large test suite, again in a day that would have been weeks of elapsed effort for me.

3) figured out how to intercept messages to alter default behaviour in a java swing ui. Googling didnt help.

So I have found it to be a massive productivity boost when exploring things I'm not familiar with, or automating boring tests. So I'm surprised that the study says developers were slower using it. Maybe they were holding it wrong ;)

sharemywin · 3 months ago
a few possibilities for me are: over engineering, rabbit holes, trying to build on top of something that only 80% works, and trying to fix something you don't understand how it works. also integrating in with existing code bases. it will ignore field name capitalization, forget about fields, other things like that.

I prefer working with AI but it ain't prefect for sure.

sharemywin commented on Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/ForHackernews
grg0 · 3 months ago
This article presents the apparently widespread, but incorrect and, frankly, boring view that "coding" is the bottleneck in development. The following statement summarizes this view best:

> Many knowledge-work tasks are harder to automate than coding, which benefits from huge amounts of training data and clear definitions of success.

which implies that "coding" is not knowledge work. If "coding" is understood as the mere typing of requirements into executable code, then that simply is not a bottleneck and the gains to be had there are marginal (check out Amdahl's law). And if "coding" is to be understood as the more general endeavour of software development, then the people making these statements have no fucking idea what they're talking about and cannot be taken seriously.

sharemywin · 3 months ago
so was the article conflating the two or was it just pointing out the software developer roles typically have many hats that can and sometimes are held by other in the process. ie. systems analyst, business analyst, architect, designer, PM, QA etc.
sharemywin commented on Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/ForHackernews
goalieca · 3 months ago
I think it may be good for jobs in the tech sector when it bursts. The 300B invested in hardware and data centers were not being invested in labourers like ourselves.
sharemywin · 3 months ago
I think once Exec learn all the programmers they fired need to be rehired cause AI ain't going to replace them and the AI tools need to be integrated in with all the current tech.
sharemywin commented on Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/ForHackernews
shredprez · 3 months ago
It's a good thought exercise, but the opening hinges on a premise that feels obviously wrong: that experts in doing work by hand will do that work faster with AI.

My experience is that, in many cases, people who are very good at doing something by hand are excellent at the process of doing that thing by hand, not generally excellent at doing that thing or talking about that thing or teaching others how to do that thing. And I've found it to be true (sometimes particularly true) for people who have done that thing for a long time, even if they're actively interested in finding new and better ways to do the work. Their skills are fine-tuned for a manual way of working.

Working with AI feels very, very different from writing software by hand. When I let myself lean into AI's strengths, it allows me to move much faster and often without sacrificing quality. But it takes constant effort to avoid the trap of my well-established comfort with doing things by hand.

The people who are best positioned to build incredible things with AI do not have or do not fall into that comfortable habit of manual work. They often aren't expert engineers (yet) in the traditional sense, but in a new sense that's being worked out in realtime by all of us. Gaps in technical understanding are still there, but they're being filled extremely fast by some of the best technology for learning our species has ever created.

It's hard for me to watch them and not see a rapidly approaching future where all this AI skepticism looks like self-soothing delusion from people who will struggle to adjust to the new techniques (and pace) of doing work with these tools.

sharemywin · 3 months ago
to me the biggest problem with AI is verifying the stuff it generates works before you build on top of it.
sharemywin commented on Just How Bad Would an AI Bubble Be?   theatlantic.com/economy/a... · Posted by u/ForHackernews
grg0 · 3 months ago
I am not strictly sure why you are being downvoted, but raising interest rates does not get you out of the 'stag' in stagflation; it actually makes it worse. Cue EU governments circa 2008 for a recent example of where that kind of economic policy gets you.
sharemywin · 3 months ago
when your markets are hyper monopolized they can just produce less and jack prices up even more.

u/sharemywin

KarmaCake day5573February 21, 2011
About
follow me on twitter.com

https://twitter.com/Bob19046541

View Original