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scsilver commented on The impact of competition and DeepSeek on Nvidia   youtubetranscriptoptimize... · Posted by u/eigenvalue
eigenvalue · a year ago
Yesterday I wrote up all my thoughts on whether NVDA stock is finally a decent short (or at least not a good thing to own at this point). I’m a huge bull when it comes to the power and potential of AI, but there are just too many forces arrayed against them to sustain supernormal profits.

Anyway, I hope people here find it interesting to read, and I welcome any debate or discussion about my arguments.

scsilver · a year ago
Wanted to add a preface: Thank you for your time on this article, I appreciate your perspective and experience, hoping you can help refine and reign in my bull case.

Where do you expect NVDA's forward and current eps to land? What revenue drop off are you expecting in late 2025/2026. Part of my bull case for NVDA, continuing, is it's very reasonable multiple on insane revenue. An leveling off can be expected, but I still feel bullish on it hitting $200+ (5 Trillion market cap? on ~195B revenue for Fiscal year 2026 (calendar 2025) at 33 EPS) based on this years revenue according to their guidance and the guidance of the hyperscalers spending. Finding a sell point is a whole different matter to being actively short. I can see the case to take some profits, hard for me to go short, especially in an inflationary environment (tariffs, electric energy, bullying for lower US interest rates).

The scale of production of Grace Hopper and Blackwell amaze me, 800k units of Blackwell coming out this quarter, is there even production room for AMD to get their chips made? (Looking at the new chip factories in Arizona)

R1 might be nice for reducing llm inferencing costs, unsure about the local llama one's accuracy (couldnt get it to correctly spit out the NFL teams and their associated conferences, kept mixing NFL with Euro Football) but I still want to train YOLO vision models on faster chips like A100's vs T4 (4-5x multiples in speed for me).

Lastly, if the Robot/Autonomous vehicle ML wave hits within the next year, (First drones and cars -> factories -> humanoids) I think this compute demand can sustain NVDA compute demand.

The real mystery is how we power all this within 2 years...

* This is not financial advice and some of my numbers might be a little off, still refining my model and verifying sources and numbers

scsilver commented on In Colorado, an ambitious new highway policy is not building them   nytimes.com/2024/05/31/he... · Posted by u/lxm
kjkjadksj · 2 years ago
All they have to do is restart the old passenger rail system they had in the 40s. It connected the entire front range with salt lake and all the major cities in utah including park city, went down to santa fe in the south, and hit just about all the towns and ski resorts that were around at the time. Even the ones that are a little more annoying to get to today like aspen or telluride.

What is even more tempting is that all this infrastructure and right of ways are still there. A lot of these towns have the old station land empty still, some have the old station preserved even. A lot of the rail grades are either sustained by freight rail or have been railbanked as trails. Its practically turn key as the hard part of gathering all this land was done over a century ago.

Too bad rail ambition is so paltry in comparison today.

scsilver · 2 years ago
Can you lead me to some background on this? I'd love to look at some of the routes and law behind it.

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scsilver commented on Engineer’s guide to career growth: Advice from my time at Stripe and Facebook   review.firstround.com/the... · Posted by u/duck
h1n99 · 3 years ago
I’m one level ahead of you (L7) but, like, why does there need to be something “next”? I’ll make a seven-figure TC this year. That’s enough! I spent about $50k last year, and I live in New York.

My manager talks about getting me to L8 all the time and it’s exhausting. I’m done! I’ve won the income game! She is very career oriented and cares about climbing the ladder, I do not.

I’ve never actually cared about “career goals” or done “growth” really, I don’t think I’d actually be unhappy if I was stuck at L5 making a mere $400k forever. That’s a really high income, an integer multiple of what my parents ever made.

So my “what’s next” is keep throwing it into VTI and then retire in a few years.

FWIW there were very little politics involved in my L7 promotion, I just wrote a lot of good code and mentored some people to do the same.

scsilver · 3 years ago
Would you like another mentee?

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scsilver commented on “Healthy obesity” doesn’t exist. It is unequivocally bad for you   bigthink.com/health/healt... · Posted by u/Brajeshwar
throwawaysleep · 3 years ago
The challenge is what is the closest hack to get around it, as most people, admittedly myself included, are not willing to exercise? Semaglutide seems to be the best bet right now.
scsilver · 3 years ago
I don’t know about you but exercise is one of my most enjoyable parts of my day. Yoga, walking, biking, dancing, swimming are all really enjoyable. Don’t push yourself hard, just go through the motions.

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u/scsilver

KarmaCake day693September 8, 2016View Original