What is even more tempting is that all this infrastructure and right of ways are still there. A lot of these towns have the old station land empty still, some have the old station preserved even. A lot of the rail grades are either sustained by freight rail or have been railbanked as trails. Its practically turn key as the hard part of gathering all this land was done over a century ago.
Too bad rail ambition is so paltry in comparison today.
Anyway, I hope people here find it interesting to read, and I welcome any debate or discussion about my arguments.
Where do you expect NVDA's forward and current eps to land? What revenue drop off are you expecting in late 2025/2026. Part of my bull case for NVDA, continuing, is it's very reasonable multiple on insane revenue. An leveling off can be expected, but I still feel bullish on it hitting $200+ (5 Trillion market cap? on ~195B revenue for Fiscal year 2026 (calendar 2025) at 33 EPS) based on this years revenue according to their guidance and the guidance of the hyperscalers spending. Finding a sell point is a whole different matter to being actively short. I can see the case to take some profits, hard for me to go short, especially in an inflationary environment (tariffs, electric energy, bullying for lower US interest rates).
The scale of production of Grace Hopper and Blackwell amaze me, 800k units of Blackwell coming out this quarter, is there even production room for AMD to get their chips made? (Looking at the new chip factories in Arizona)
R1 might be nice for reducing llm inferencing costs, unsure about the local llama one's accuracy (couldnt get it to correctly spit out the NFL teams and their associated conferences, kept mixing NFL with Euro Football) but I still want to train YOLO vision models on faster chips like A100's vs T4 (4-5x multiples in speed for me).
Lastly, if the Robot/Autonomous vehicle ML wave hits within the next year, (First drones and cars -> factories -> humanoids) I think this compute demand can sustain NVDA compute demand.
The real mystery is how we power all this within 2 years...
* This is not financial advice and some of my numbers might be a little off, still refining my model and verifying sources and numbers