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rossjudson commented on Tesla ending Models S and X production   cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla... · Posted by u/keyboardJones
vtail · 12 days ago
"HN is dying" is a cliche, I know, but I seriously want to bookmark this thread to revisit it in 10 years - I'm sure it will age even better than (in)famous Dropbox thread. So from that perspective, HN is alive and well :).

The level of cynicism of the discussion is overwhelming, frankly. I get it that some people don't like Musk because of his politics, but why should that prevent people interested in technology to at least try to present a steelman case?

Let me try it, at a risk to be down-voted to oblivion...

1. As people correctly point out, S&X are outdated, low volume models. Investing more engineering time in them doesn't make any business sense; these engineering resources and capital should be clearly redeployed elsewhere.

2. People think that Waymo is supposedly better(?) than FSD, but at least some very well informed people (and NVIDIA as a company) believe that it's not. Personal anecdote: an older (HW3) version of Tesla drove me perfectly well in Yosemite last weekend, in on winding mountain roads with 0 cell phone coverage. It will take Waymo forever to map everything there properly with LIDAR, and true autonomy only in selected metro areas has limited value.

3. It's obvious that when we have autonomous, general purpose humanoid robots, they will completely transform our societies. Any such robots would require an enormous AI/vision investment. Say what you want about Elon, but xAI basically caught up with the top LLM shops in ~18 months, and now have comparable AI training capacity. You can bet against Optimus, but who else would have the skills to bring both the technology and the AI to market first? China? Good robotics, but no enough data to train their vision models comparing to Tesla, at least not yet.

4. So the bear case is that (a) driving autonomy is not possible without LIDAR, (b) Tesla can't bring another very complex product to market, and (c) autonomous robots are not possible in our lifetime. If you look at the AI progress even in the last 12 months, that's a tough sell to me.

What are the serious, tech-based counterarguments to the points above?

rossjudson · 12 days ago
What's with the "outdated" adjective? There's nothing in the US market even remotely close to the X. Every other EV is a slapdash pile of hoobajoobs and knobs that can't even drive itself.

Source: 45000 miles in a bit over two years, loved every minute of it. Makes our other high priced German car a disappointing machine to be avoided if possible.

rossjudson commented on Tesla ending Models S and X production   cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla... · Posted by u/keyboardJones
cosmicgadget · 12 days ago
Okay that's my ignorance of Tesla models then, I assumed the more expensive models were also faster.

I guess then it's more like Toyota EOLing Lexus or GM getting rid of Cadillac.

I understand the point that the cheaper models are higher volume. Historically that had not precluded the creation of sports and luxury models for most manufacturers. Are the legacy brands wrong to do this? Currently I doubt their business acumen far less than Elon's.

rossjudson · 12 days ago
The S is faster than any other Tesla. Non-plaid S and X are much faster than non P 3 and Y.

Your main point is highly valid. Why does any manufacturer bother to make anything better than a Camry?

Because it makes money, of course.

rossjudson commented on Tesla ending Models S and X production   cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla... · Posted by u/keyboardJones
fortran77 · 12 days ago
But the 3 isn’t comparable. It’s cheap, looks cheap and feels cheap.
rossjudson · 12 days ago
Someone who owns a BMW 5 series isn't going to switch down to a new model of the 3 series. The X makes the 3 and Y feel like go karts (that are slow). The S is a missile. Fun, but not for me.

The other way of looking at this: The X is the only Tesla model with door handles that aren't stupid.

rossjudson commented on Tesla ending Models S and X production   cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla... · Posted by u/keyboardJones
rossjudson · 12 days ago
I love FSD and I know it well. I probably wouldn't feel super comfortable in a Tesla taxi. I've seen too much.
rossjudson commented on Tesla ending Models S and X production   cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla... · Posted by u/keyboardJones
fmlpp · 12 days ago
Tesla and musk were living off of monstrous subsidies to the tune of 20B or more
rossjudson · 12 days ago
Sure. And selling the most popular car on the planet is a failure?

Didn't the US government put ~$80b into rescuing GM etc, years ago?

Subsidies bootstrapped the EV industry. Stupid policies mean walking away from the investment, ceding the market to foreign competitors, and doubling down on legacy ICE crap the rest of the world no longer wants...and Americans will be less and less able to afford.

rossjudson commented on Tesla ending Models S and X production   cnbc.com/2026/01/28/tesla... · Posted by u/keyboardJones
seanmcdirmid · 12 days ago
The X and S were always very low volume niche products unlike the much more mainstream Y and 3. I wouldn’t read much into it.
rossjudson · 12 days ago
I would. Someone in the market for a presumably profitable BMW 5 or 7 series isn't going to stay with BMW and drive a 3 series.

Yearly sales of model X have been comparable to the 5 series, at least until last year when musk's political activities took the shine off the brand.

High end cars are more profitable. There are millions of 3 and Y owners with positive experiences who would stay with the brand if it had something to move up to.

My 23 MX is the best car I've ever owned. I wouldn't buy the current iterations of 3 and Y.

Most refresh X owners think it's pretty great (not perfect). There are no alternatives at the moment, mostly because other manufacturers are terrible at software development...and that's not good for software defined vehicles.

It's sad to see Tesla walk away from the luxury segment so they can focus on robots, go karts, and robots pretending to drive go karts.

rossjudson commented on Wind Chime Length Calculator (2022)   snyderfamily.com/chimecal... · Posted by u/hyperific
rossjudson · 15 days ago
Tuning matters! After my daughter complained about how the toms on her new drums sounded like crap, I bought a Tune-Bot (drum tuner), asked Gemini to help me make her toms sound like Dirty Loops, and got busy.

A few hours later, she pronounced them to be "not bad". Win! I wasn't going to get higher praise out of a teenager anyway.

rossjudson commented on Earth is warming faster. Scientists are closing in on why (2024)   economist.com/science-and... · Posted by u/andsoitis
orson2077 · 24 days ago
Good lord, read Termination Shock by Neil Stephenson. Stratospheric aerosol injection is effective, but comes with severe risks, and can even be used as a strategic weapon (e.g. inject your sulphur over X and disrupt the monsoon in the Punjab, fucking their agriculture).
rossjudson · 24 days ago
Neil Stephenson is predicting way too much of the future.

Tenses are hard. Again:

Stephenson predicted way too much of the present.

rossjudson commented on Donut Lab’s all-solid-state battery delivers 400 Wh/kg of energy density   donutlab.com/ces-battery-... · Posted by u/aeonfox
testing22321 · a month ago
Have you tried to fuel a ICE vehicle in a power outage? I waited a week in the Congo.

Getting fuel out of underground tanks and paying for it are non trivial with no power.

I can charge an EV off my solar panels.

rossjudson · a month ago
You forgot to bring your pump, spotter, and nail-tipped bat. If you had those I'm sure you would have been able to fight your way through and have your go juice in no more than 15 minutes.
rossjudson commented on Decorative Cryptography   dlp.rip/decorative-crypto... · Posted by u/todsacerdoti
Retr0id · a month ago
Protecting secrets via hardware is always "decorative" in some sense, the question is just how much time+work it takes to extract them (and probability of destroying the secrets/device in the process). (outside of things like QKD)

But for software systems under a software threat model, bug-free implementations are possible, in theory at least.

rossjudson · a month ago
This is a reasonable take.

Perfect security isn't a thing. Hardware/Software engineers are in the business of making compromise harder, but eyes are wide open about "perfection".

Confidential Computing is evolving, and it's steadily gotten much more difficult to bypass the security properties.

u/rossjudson

KarmaCake day2331December 30, 2010View Original