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rel_ic commented on We might all be AI engineers now   yasint.dev/we-might-all-b... · Posted by u/sn0wflak3s
input_sh · 7 days ago
Even speaking from a pure statistical perspective, it is quite literally impossible for "AI" that outputs world's-most-average-answer to be better than "most engineers".

In fact, it's pretty easy to conclude what percentage of engineers it's better than: all it does is it consumes as much data as possible and returns the statistically most probable answer, therefore it's gonna be better than roughly 50% of engineers. Maybe you can claim that it's better than 60% of engineers because bottom-of-the-barrel engineers tend to not publish their works online for it to be used as training data, but for every one of those you have a bunch of non-engineers that don't do this for a living putting their shitty attempts at getting stuff done using code online, so I'm actually gonna correct myself immediately and say that it's about 40%.

The same goes for every other output: it's gonna make the world's most average article, the most average song in a genre and so on. You can nudge it to be slightly better than the average with great effort, but no, you absolutely cannot make it better than most.

rel_ic · 7 days ago
This is kind of like saying a kid can never become a better programmer than the average of his teachers.

IMHO, the reasons not to use AI are social, not logical.

rel_ic commented on I built a demo of what AI chat will look like when it's “free” and ad-supported   99helpers.com/tools/ad-su... · Posted by u/nickk81
laserbeam · 11 days ago
I would honestly expect AI ads to be invisible, and for them to just be injected by the provider as part of the prompt. For example, you ask for something about firefox, but the AI tells you that firefox has a nasty ugly way to solve your problem and it would be easier to install chrome.
rel_ic · 11 days ago
Ditto. AI has the power to make you believe stuff without you noticing, why would they bother with garish ads when they could make you think it was YOUR idea to buy Chlorox?

I guess maybe the garish colors could increase your suggestibility indirectly maybe?

rel_ic commented on LLM=True   blog.codemine.be/posts/20... · Posted by u/avh3
rel_ic · 15 days ago
> The environment wins (less tokens burned = less energy consumed)

This is understandable logic, but at a systemic level it's not how things always go. Increasing efficiency can lead to increased consumption overall. You might save 50% in energy for your workload, but maybe now you can run it 3 times as much, or maybe 3 times more people will use it, because it's cheaper. The result might be a 50% INCREASE in energy consumed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

rel_ic commented on Show HN: I spent 3 years reverse-engineering a 40 yo stock market sim from 1986   wallstreetraider.com/stor... · Posted by u/benstopics
stavros · a month ago
Can we stop with this? The world has changed, LLMs exist, people use them, and "omg LLMs" is a very tired trope now. If you didn't like the article, you can critique it, but "you used a tool I don't like" is just boring.
rel_ic · a month ago
What I want is for THIS to stop. "Listen, no one wants to hear about your moral issues, just stfu."

Don't give up so easily. Let the discomfort in and try & figure out why people keep saying "omg LLMs" until you can hear what they are actually saying.

rel_ic commented on Show HN: Pgclaw – A "Clawdbot" in every row with 400 lines of Postgres SQL   github.com/calebwin/pgcla... · Posted by u/calebhwin
rel_ic · a month ago
We need your help! Can you please use your creativity to build resilience to climate change in your community instead of experimenting with more ways to spend computing power?
rel_ic commented on To AI or not to AI   antropia.studio/blog/to-a... · Posted by u/serchinastico
rel_ic · 5 months ago
Using AI to improve facebook ads... y'all are the breakers from the Dark Tower series.
rel_ic commented on I got the highest score on ARC-AGI again swapping Python for English   jeremyberman.substack.com... · Posted by u/freediver
mjburgess · 6 months ago
That's an abductive failure to recognise that something is A, and something else is not-A

I dont see cases where people recognise the contradiction and then perform it.

rel_ic · 6 months ago
People who know alcohol is bad for them and don't want to keep being drunks but keep drinking, people who believe phones are bad for their kids but still buy them, people who understand AI will significantly degrade the environment if it becomes ubiquitous but still work to help it become ubiquitous...

Mathematicians who publish proofs that are later proven inconsistent!

I suspect we have fundamentally different views of how humans work. I see our behavior and beliefs as _mostly_ irrational, with only a few "reasoning live-zones" where, with great effort, we can achieve logical thought.

rel_ic commented on I got the highest score on ARC-AGI again swapping Python for English   jeremyberman.substack.com... · Posted by u/freediver
mjburgess · 6 months ago
We have dead-zones in adductive reasoning, not in induction or deduction. Almost all failures of reasoning in people are in abducing what model describes the situation at hand.

eg., we can apply the rule, "-A cannot follow from A", etc. regardless of the A

eg., we always know that if the number of apples is 2, then it cannot be any of "all numbers without 2" -- which quantifies over all numbers

You will not find a "gap" for a given number, whereas with LLMs, gaps of this kind are common

rel_ic · 6 months ago
> we can apply the rule, "-A cannot follow from A", etc. regardless of the A

You can't think of any domains where we are unable to apply this rule? I feel like I'm surrounded by people claiming "A, therefore -A!!"

And if I'm one of them, and this were a reasoning dead-zone for me, I wouldn't be able to tell!

rel_ic commented on The future is not self-hosted   drewlyton.com/story/the-f... · Posted by u/drew_lytle
bigstrat2003 · 7 months ago
> As a public institution you, the citizen, own it.

Nominally, yes. In terms of that meaning anything, no. The benefit of ownership is not exclusivity, but control. If the library doesn't have a book (or other piece of media, of course), I have no power to influence them to get it despite that theoretical ownership. If the librarian decides a book is offensive and removes it from the collection, I have no power to influence them to keep it. I have to live with someone else's decisions about what the library does and does not contain, just like with a commercial service. So my nominal ownership really means nothing at all.

rel_ic · 7 months ago
You should go talk to your librarians, you can totally influence all these things!
rel_ic commented on The future is not self-hosted   drewlyton.com/story/the-f... · Posted by u/drew_lytle
deathanatos · 7 months ago
The author mostly just hand waves away self-hosting. There's an analogy that compares it to suburbia, but unlike the suburbs where you have to drive 40 minutes to get anywhere interesting, … an Internet hosted service is just as accessible, anywhere. It's a vapid analogy.

The only substantive argument I can see is that the technology is immature:

> Well...without exposing our services to the public internet and forcing our friends to signup for our weird app

Which, yeah, of course the tech is, there's only like a dozen people doing this. The exact hurdle named is hardly insurmountable: in the standards, OIDC overcomes this¹, or guest links. I don't want my family signing up for my weird app either.

One of the other big hurdles is that ISPs like to sell "Internet access", but only deliver half the deal. If you're not getting IPv6 connectivity in the year 2025, I'm sorry, that's a crippled product that your ISP was defunct and didn't properly inform you of when they sold it. (It's a lot easier to self-host on the v6 Internet. Some of my personal services are v6 only b/c of that, and that it works well enough in all but the most extreme or temporary locations.)

(¹but the half-baked OIDC implementations out there might require you to pre-register your app with them. That, rightly, might be a PITA.)

rel_ic · 7 months ago
I totally agree. I see this "people don't want to do hard stuff" argument used all over - completely disregarding tens of thousands of years of people doing hard stuff.

It comes off to me as the author not wanting to do the hard stuff of working towards their values. Just kind of defeatist and trying to make a splash but leaning on a pretty weak premise.

u/rel_ic

KarmaCake day73July 9, 2024View Original